Just because the Belmont Stakes 2019 cannot provide a Triple Crown winner does not mean that horse betting enthusiasts should turn their attention away from the longest of the three legs in horse racing’s most storied series. There is still $1.5 million on the line, and War of Will could become the twelfth horse ever to win the second and third legs of the Triple Crown after dropping the first. Tacitus is the prohibitive favorite, at least at this writing (odds will shift at the drawing of post positions and will shift again up until the start time, because of the way parimutuel betting works). We have put together profiles of the top three favorites; this article, though, deals with the dark horses and long shots, those at the bottom of the odds list who have, in our opinion, a chance to jump and, if not win, find a spot on the trifecta and superfecta boards.
Belmont Stakes 2019 Dark Horses and Longshots
We’ve seen historically dramatic finishes, jockey-less horses, and much more in this year’s #TripleCrown races.
What will the @BelmontStakes bring on Saturday? pic.twitter.com/y8wciRwNXc — NBC Sports (@NBCSports) June 4, 2019
Entry List with Early Odds
- Tacitus 2/1
- War of Will 5/1
- Bourbon War, Master Fencer 8/1
- Intrepid Heart, Sir Winston 10/1
- Everfast 12/1
- Spinoff 15/1
- Tax, Joevia 20/1
Spinoff
- Belmont Stakes 2019 Odds: +900
- Jockey: Javier Castellano
- Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Career Record: 5 starts (2 wins, 1 second, 1 third)
Spinoff started from the #17 post position at Churchill Downs, and he could never get inside that wide berth. That made the race significantly longer for him, and then he got backed up in the far turn. He finished 18th — just one of two horses whose final position was not adjusted up by one after the disqualification of Maximum Security. His training at Belmont Park has been solid since Churchill Downs. He won his debut as a juvenile and finished third at the Saratoga Special Stakes Presented by Miller Lite in 2018; in 2019, he won easily at Tampa Bay Downs and finished second by just ¾ length at the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby despite leading in the middle of the stretch. He likes to push forward and stay with the leaders, and in a race like this one, in which there is a dearth of pure speed, he could easily find himself right in the mix of things. The long distance at Belmont is a significant hurdle, but if you are looking for a long shot pick, either to win or as part of your trifecta or superfecta, Spinoff is definitely one to consider.
Tax
- Belmont Stakes 2019 Odds: +1600
- Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
- Trainer: Danny Gargan
- Career Record: 6 starts (2 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third)
A lot of sports bettors liked Tax to find his way onto the board at Churchill Downs despite long odds there, but he finished 15th (moved to 14th after the disqualification of Maximum Security). Before that, he had looked solid in 2019, winning the 1 ⅛-mile Withers Stakes at Aqueduct and finishing a close runner-up behind Tacitus in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, also 1 ⅛ miles. If one looks at his resume, he has just as rosy a set of results as do War of Will and Tacitus. This suggests that his dreadful Derby was more of a bad accident than anything else — so if you’re looking for some value on the odds list, Tax is a good place to start.
Joevia
- Belmont Stakes 2019 Odds: +3300
- Jockey: Jose Lezcano
- Trainer: Gregory Sacco
- Career Record: 5 starts (2 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds)
Joevia and Tax sit even as far as the early odds go, but Joevia seems to be a much longer shot. He did win the 1 1/16-mile Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth Park by 2 ¾ lengths, working hard from gate to wire, but one of the horses he beat saw his jockey fall by the wayside in the race. The Wood Memorial Stakes was not a proud showing for Joevia, as he broke in from the far outside post to try and take the lead and found disqualification from seventh to last place. It’s hard to see Joevia competing over the longer distance at Belmont Park.
