Mystik Dan put up maximum effort at the 2024 Preakness Stakes, but he was not able to track down Seize the Grey at Pimlico Race Course. Seize the Grey’s trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, became the oldest trainer to have a horse win a Triple Crown event at the age of 88. Mystik Dan got a solid start, but Seize the Grey grabbed the lead shortly thereafter and held it the rest of the way. Mystik Dan made a run after the last turn, but he had to settle for second place. What we know now is that there won’t be a Triple Crown winner. Can Seize the Grey win the Belmont Stakes as well? Or will the slightly longer distance in the third leg of the Triple Crown be too much for the Preakness winner? Read on to get some of our sports betting insights on next month’s race.
Bet On Horse Racing Odds: Who Will Win the Belmont Stakes?
The Analysis
Before we start talking about specific horses, let’s review a special wrinkle about this year’s running of the Belmont. Because of ongoing construction on the Belmont track, though, the race has been moved to Saratoga Springs, New York. Running the full 1 ½-mile distance at Saratoga would mean starting the race on a turn, and race directors opted to shorten the race to 1 ¼ mile to avoid that awkward start.
Seize the Grey
So, does this help Seize the Grey? His best races have taken place over shorter distances. He didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby, but he did run in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day – and won. The Preakness Stakes is the shortest of the three Triple Crown legs, which may have played a role in Seize the Grey holding off Mystik Dan this past weekend. It also helped Seize the Grey that the track was sloppy and wet, which made the race slower for everyone. Some reasons not to wager on Seize the Grey include his recent workload: not every horse who will run at Belmont will have raced at Churchill Downs and Pimlico Race Course, so they will come in with more rest.
Fierceness
And then there’s Fierceness. He drew a lot of wagering action at Churchill Downs because of the dominant win he posted at the Florida Derby. He ended up bottoming out at Churchill Down, though, after Track Phantom and Just Steel enticed him into an early sprint. Burning that fuel early left him with little in the tank, and so he ended up settling for 15th. He didn’t run in the Preakness, so he heads to New York with more rest than some of the other contenders.
Mystik Dan
When we think about Mystik Dan, it’s important to note that while he didn’t win the Preakness, it’s not like he fell off the table. His second-place finish could have been a win on a slightly longer track. Ken McPeek has not yet committed Mystik Dan to run at the Belmont; it might make sense to hold him out to give him more rest so that his next race will end up more successfully. With two consecutive tough races on his legs, the Belmont could end up being an anticlimax for him.
Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone was the horse that Mystik Dan edged by a nose at Churchill Downs in that photo finish. At the start of the Kentucky Derby, he came out of the gate in 18th place, but he mounted a furious rally to finish second. The field is smaller at the Belmont, which will give jockey Tyler Gaffalione more strategic options as he looks for ways to win. Sierra Leone also got the advantage of extra rest by not running at the Preakness.
SEIZE THE GREY WINS THE #PREAKNESS! From his first win in #NewYork, to capturing the 2nd jewel of the #TripleCrown trail!
— Belmont Stakes (@BelmontStakes) May 18, 2024
Next stop, #BelmontStakes 👑 pic.twitter.com/Zce4xoyqnD
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