On May 6, 2023, the 149th Kentucky Derby will renew a tradition that dates back to 1875, with a 1-¼ mile race at Churchill Downs, in Louisville, Kentucky. The race originally ran 1 ½ miles, but after it was shortened by a quarter-mile, the record time went to Secretariat (1:59.40). The Derby is the first in a series of three races that, taken together, make up the Triple Crown, for which three-year-old horses compete each year. Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner was Rich Strike, but no horse has gone on to win the Triple Crown (which would also include wins at the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes) since 2018, when Justify pulled it off. Let’s take an early look at this year’s Kentucky Derby so you can begin thinking about your Kentucky Derby odds choices.
Horse Racing News: 2023 Kentucky Derby Predictions
Forte and Cave Rock came in 1-2 at the FanDuel Juvenile at Keeneland. Cave Rock set the pace early, pulled away in the early stretch, but then tired in the late part of the race and slowed near the finish. Forte started patiently and then pulled into contention halfway through the far turn and then activated the jets down the stretch, winning by 1 ½ lengths, picking up 30 qualifying points for Churchill Downs. Forte has shown the most promise in his age group, as winning the Juvenile showed; he had also picked up points at the Hopeful Stakes and the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, both Grade 1 Stakes, and both at the identical 1 1/16-mile distance that the Juvenile presents. Cave Rock had also picked up points by winning the Del Mar Futurity and the American Pharaoh Stakes, also Grade 1 wins, but the competition there was not as impressive overall despite the presence of National Treasure. While some two-year-olds who win Grade 1 races tend to decline after that peak, Forte and Cave Rock could stick around and do well in the Triple Crown season.
Arabian Knight is a Bob Baffert-trained horse, and while Baffert’s suspension from the New York Racing Association ends in a few weeks, his Kentucky Derby suspension extends through the 2023 race. This means that horses that he is training must be transferred to other trainers by February 28 for their qualifying points to count for this year’s Derby – pending a February 2 hearing on the situation. Arabian Knight won the first race on Breeders’ Cup Saturday by 7 ¼ lengths in a race that was just seven furlongs. He posted a 102 Equibase Speed Figure in the win, close to what Cave Rock (104) and Forte (107) posted at the Juvenile. On his mother’s side, Arabian Knight’s pedigree all comes from horses that excelled in sprints, tiring at the mile, but he also comes from Uncle Mo, who has sired a Churchill Downs winner already.
Extra Anejo also has an impressive pedigree, sired by Into Mischief. He posted a terrific win on October 13 at Keeneland, breezing over seven furlongs to a 9 ½-length victory and posting a 95 Equibase Speed Figure. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Extra Anejo could be one of the two or three horses that Asmussen has ready for the Kentucky Derby each year. His dam had a win at 1 ¼ miles, and his dam is also a half-sister to a mare who had two wins at 1 ½ miles in stakes races in England. With that pedigree, Extra Anejo remains an intriguing prospect.
Giant Mischief and Arabian Lion came in 1-2 in a seven-furlong event at the Breeders’ Cup’s Future Stars Friday undercard. Arabian Lion came in as the favorite after winning by three lengths at Santa Anita Park. Giant Mischief had won a 5 ½-furlong maiden race by 1 ½ lengths, entering at the Future Stars at 6-1 but pulling up from a stalking position to beat Arabian Lion by ¾ length and posting a 101 Equibase Speed Figure (Arabian Lion’s was 100).
Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
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