We’re a week and a half away from the 2021 edition of the Kentucky Derby, and the field of 20 horses continues to shift, as several contenders that had earned enough points to race for the roses at Churchill Downs are being pulled from the race by their trainers and headed elsewhere.
As you consider your Kentucky Derby betting on horse racing’s most storied event, don’t miss the latest updates for the big day.
Horse Racing News: Kentucky Derby Updates
Concert Tour out for the Kentucky Derby
Trainer Bob Baffert announced that Concert Tour will not take place in the Kentucky Derby on May 1. He had entered the Arkansas Derby as the favorite, but he came in third, 2 ½ lengths behind the winner. Baffert has decided to train Concert Tour for the Preakness Stakes instead. Baffert picked up his sixth Kentucky Derby win a year ago with Authentic, and Concert Tour had been one of the leading favorites at Churchill Downs this season. He has three wins in four starts, with two Grade II stakes wins in 2021 at San Vicente and the Rebel Stakes. His next start, though, will come May 15 at Pimlico’s Preakness Stakes.
Sainthood a promising horse for Churchill Downs
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Sainthood could give Pletcher his third win at Churchill Downs. Pletcher also trained Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017). He has one win in three career starts, stacking up 40 points to qualify for the race. His last result came at Turfway Park on March 27, where he came in second at the Jeff Ruby Steaks (Grade III), a length back of Like the King. He broke his maiden on February 13, in a 1 1/16 mile dirt race at Fair Grounds. He broke his maiden as a wire-to-wire winner, but overall, he tends to be more of a stalker.
Weather forecast uncertain for May 1
One of the biggest topics ahead of Derby Day has to do with the weather, as rain produces mud on the course, which can change the outcome significantly. The National Weather Service has said that it remains too early for a detailed forecast. AccuWeather.com has issued a forecast with a high of 69 degrees, as well as a low of 47 with cloudy skies. The chance of rain? Right now, it sits at 25%. Not bad for the middle of spring.
Hall of Fame Trainer Asmussen looking for first Derby win
Steve Asmussen has two contenders in the 147th edition of the Kentucky Derby, and it might finally be his big day at Churchill Downs. Super Stock, the winner of the Arkansas Derby, and Midnight Bourbon, will both be in the field, although they are both double-digit long shots at this time. He is ranked second all-time in wins for a trainer across all tracks, and a win at Churchill Downs would just be the icing on the cake.
Need some racing tips as you start to figure out your handicapping? One trend in recent years is that speed horses have a clear advantage. There was a time when horses could mount comebacks from almost any point in the pack, but the Derby has gone in recent years to horses who can get to the front quickly and cleanly. For example, between 2014 and 2020, six out of seven winners won by either setting the pace from the get-go or stalking from no worse than third place. The only horse who did not win in that stretch was Maximum Security, who finished first in 2019 but was disqualified for interfering by the far turn. So if you think that a hard charger will win this year, the numbers aren’t with you.
Another tip is to look hard at California-based horses. Six of the last ten winners of the Derby have wintered in California, doing most of their training at Santa Anita Park. Those winners are Authentic, Justify, Nyquist, American Pharaoh, California Chrome, and I’ll Have Another. Such runners-up as Exaggerator, Firing Line and Bodemeister also hailed from California.
Yet another place to look is the Florida Derby. In the last 15 years, five winners at Gulfstream went on to win the Kentucky Derby; no other prep race has produced that many winners at Churchill Downs over that stretch. The winners are Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016), and Always Dreaming (2017). Once again, Maximum Security would have made it six but for that DQ.
Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
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