Now that we’ve come through the post draw, it’s just a matter of days until the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby, set for May 1 at Churchill Downs. Essential Quality comes in as the heavy favorite, with opening odds of +200. He is the top horse in the three-year-old class; he is also the only horse that entered one of the 100-point prep races as a favorite and ended up winning. However, he’s just one of 20 horses in the race.
As you figure out your Kentucky Derby betting choices for the race, let’s learn a little more about each horse that will line up in the gate.
Horse Racing News: Kentucky Derby Updates
Post #1: Known Agenda (+600)
Once Todd Pletcher put blinkers on this horse, he has taken off. In his last two races, he has won by an aggregate 13 ¾ lengths, including a big win at the Florida Derby, in which he posted a 112 Equibase speed figure, the best among these horses. However, coming out of the #1 slot, which has not produced a winner since 1986, is not an advantage.
Post #2: Like The King (+5000)
He has never finished outside the top three in any of his six races, but three of those were on artificial turf at Turfway Park. Another one came on turf. When he started on dirt in a race of more than a mile, he had his worst result. He’s a longshot for a reason.
Post #3: Brooklyn Strong (+5000)
He won the Remsen Stakes (Grade II) to close out a solid 2020, but he did not run in 2021 until April 3, when he settled for fifth at the Wood Memorial, which did not have a great field.
Post #4: Keepmeinmind (+5000)
This horse followed up a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall with a win at Churchill Downs’ top race for two-year-olds. However, in 2021 he finished far behind Concert Tour at the Rebel Stakes and was even less of a factor in the Blue Grass Stakes, losing by an aggregate 24 lengths.
Post #5: Sainthood (+5000)
His best result was a runner-up at the Jeff Ruby Steaks, when he broke out of bad traffic to challenge late. He only has three career races, and this is by far the most prestigious. He will have Corey Lanerie, a terrific rider at Churchill Downs, on board.
Post #6: O Besos (+2000)
He starts slow and then likes to charge from the back, so a race of this distance could work well for him. He posted a 96 Beyer Speed Figure in the Louisiana Derby, roaring back to finish third — but a close third. He’s definitely a thought for the trifecta and superfecta.
Post #7: Mandaloun (+1500)
Mandaloun looked like a top favorite until he finished sixth at the Louisiana Derby despite coming in as the odds-on favorite. His training at Churchill Downs has been terrific, and he won his only race here, an allowance race going seven furlongs back in November. He’s intriguing in terms of some additional value.
Post #8: Medina Spirit (+1500)
This is Bob Baffert’s only entry this year, and he has never finished worse than second in five starts overall, four of them at graded stakes. He should be on your exotics wagers if not your value winner.
Post #9: Hot Rod Charlie (+800)
He entered the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a +9400 longshot and ended up as the runner-up. He then won the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. He has plenty of rest, and his workout has been solid. You’ll definitely want him in your exotics and might want him as your overall winner.
Post #10: Midnight Bourbon (+2000)
He won the Lecomte, came in third at the Risen Star and was the runner-up in the Louisiana Derby, all at Fair Grounds. He seems to have the durability to run this distance, and the post position is favorable. He’s an intriguing value bet to win the whole thing.
Post #11: Dynamic One (+2000)
He has the second-fastest four-furlong workout time among 108 attempts in this training season (:47.80), and he will have Jose Ortiz, a winner of the Eclipse Award and an elite jockey, on board. However, his actual race work has not been all that impressive, as he needed four races to break his maiden.
Post #12: Helium (+5000)
He picked up two victories in Canada last fall, both on artificial surface, and then he won the Tampa Bay Derby in an upset this year. He didn’t race again, which means he will have an eight-week layoff before Saturday. Only one horse in the last 65 years has won at Churchill Downs with a layoff longer than five weeks, and that was Animal Kingdom in 2011, who had a six-week layoff. His best Beyer Speed Figure is 84, which does not rank well here.
Post #13: Hidden Stash (+5000)
This horse was bred for this distance, and the pace should benefit him. He will be a late starter and then close at the end. He has three races without a win, but could he crash the exotics party late? Definitely a possibility.
Post #14: Essential Quality (+200)
Five wins in five races, four coming in graded stakes. Elite speed figures. His training has been terrific. His sire is Tapit, a star among stallions. There’s not much value as far as the overall winner goes, but you could combine him with a longshot in your exotics picks.
Post #15: Rock Your World (+500)
After winning two turf races, this horse won the Santa Anita Derby by 4 ¼ lengths, posting a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. His fractions were fast, but he still managed to pull away. He’s changing jockeys from Umberto Rispoli to Joel Rosario, who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby. He’s the best bet to defeat Essential Quality.
Post #16: King Fury (+2000)
He won the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes three weeks ago at Keeneland, posting a 96 Beyer Speed Figure. He is the only horse in this field with more than one win at Churchill Downs. He might be your best longshot bet to win the whole thing.
Post #17: Highly Motivated (+1000)
He came in second to Essential Quality at the Blue Grass Stakes by a neck, showing the same talent that brought him a big win at Keeneland back in the fall. He has the same sire as Authentic, last year’s Kentucky Derby winner. However, there are better value picks for the exotics.
Post #18: Super Stock (+3000)
HIs win at the Arkansas Derby was a major upset as he came back to beat Concert Tour in a six-horse field. He has eight career starts, more than any other horse in this field. However, his speed in comparison to the rest of these horses is not promising.
Post #19: Soup and Sandwich (+3000)
He won his first two races by ten combined lengths, and then he pulled away at the start of the Florida Derby before holding on to finish as the runner-up. He will start fast and has been bred to go the distance, so he’s an interesting value.
Post #20: Bourbonic (+3000)
His win at the Wood Memorial paid on +7200 odds, as his only prior experience had come in claiming races. He was dead last at the stretch and far from the lead at the eighth-pole, but then he roared all the way back. Can that happen again? The odds are against it.
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