The 2021 Kentucky Derby is set for May 1, from Churchill Downs, and the track signage is changing to reflect the 147th edition of one of the most venerable events in all of sport. For sports betting enthusiasts, this is one of the most popular events of the year and is also the first race in horse racing’s Triple Crown. Let’s take a look at some key horses in the hunt for Churchill Downs whose fortunes have shifted in the last two weeks of prep races.
2021 Triple Crown Update | Horse Racing Betting News
Hot Rod Charlie made a statement by winning the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (Grade II) by two lengths on March 20 at Fair Grounds. He led the race from start to finish; before that, he had finished in second at the 2020 TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, by less than a length, and he had come in third at the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Grade III) by a neck on January 30. Hot Rod Charlie is a half sibling to Mitole, a miler who won a Grade I stakes in 2019, and this is his first breakthrough stakes victory. The track ran 1 3/16 miles, which means he just needs to add another 1/16 for Churchill Downs. His Beyer Speed Figure (99) was a career high, and he also posted a 99 Equibase Speed Figure and a 96 BrisNet speed; his career best on both of those scales was 100. Hot Rod Charlie has emerged as a key contender.
Life Is Good is no longer on the Triple Crown trail, according to trainer Bob Baffert. On March 20, Life Is Good had to leave a workout at Santa Anita Park with a hind-end injury. He had won the San Felipe Stakes (Grade II) by eight lengths and was the favorite going into the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (Grade I) on April 3 as well as the Kentucky Derby. His workout went six furlongs in 1:11.4, but now the speedy three-year-old will recuperate at Winstar Farms.
Concert Tour, another Baffert trainee, has seen his chances to win at Churchill Downs shoot up with Life Is Good having to miss the Triple Crown. He won the Rebel Stakes by 4 ¼ lengths, leading from start to finish, following a path similar to that of Nadal, who won at the San Vicente Stakes, the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby before going down to injury. The Rebel Stakes was Concert Tour’s first two-turn race, and his speed figures essentially matches what he posted at the San Vicente Stakes (seven furlongs). He put up a 105 Equibase Speed Figure, a 94 Beyer Speed Figure and a 95 BrisNet rating in that race.
Midnight Bourbon came in second at the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, bringing his Kentucky Derby points total to 66 and making yet another solid statement in 2021. He challenged Hot Rod Charlie on the last turn at Fair Grounds, but he could not keep up. He did hold off O Besos, a strong closer, to hold onto second. He posted a career best 96 Beyer Speed Figure and also posted a 96 Equibase Speed Figure, three points off his career best. He won the Lecomte Stakes (Grade III), and he came in third by 1 ¾ lengths at the Risen Star Stakes (Grade II). His speed figures have remained consistent, and now with six weeks of rest he could make a burst and break the top three at the Kentucky Derby.
Mandaloun was the favorite at the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby after having won the Risen Star Stakes, but he did not perform well in that race. He was asked to speed up as the race progressed, but he did not, and he ended up back in sixth place, 11 ¾ lengths back of the victor, in what looks like his last prep race ahead of Churchill Downs. Mandaloun does have 52 qualification points, so he will make the field, and he has won at Churchill Downs before, but this last prep was anything but a sign of optimism.
