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We’re less than six weeks until May 3, when the Kentucky Derby will get underway for the 151st time at Louisville’s Churchill Downs, and we are ready with our Racebook Betting.
We are currently in the elite qualifying races for the 20 Kentucky Derby slots. The Championship Series features 16 races that award the highest points, with recent 100-point qualifiers being the Louisiana Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks.
The top five finishers earn points towards Derby qualification: 100, 50, 25, 15, and 10. Tiztastic, winning the Louisiana Derby with Joel Rosario, leads qualifiers with 119 points, following a 2 ¼ length victory over Chunk of Gold.
Chunk of Gold ranks third with 75 points on the leaderboard, while Instant Replay (24th) is below the cut line. John Hancock (fourth) is 15th, and Built (fifth) is 13th. Final Gambit, winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks, now has 100 points and sits second, beating Flying Mohawk by 3 ½ lengths, who earned 50 points.
Maximum Promise (third) now has 33 points, which is good for 16th, and Poster came in fourth and sits in 18th on the leaderboard. This weekend, the Curlin Florida Derby (Grade I) and the Arkansas Derby (Grade I) will provide more opportunities for points.
Racebook Betting: Top Stakes Races for the Week
Let’s look at your best sports betting options for those races.
Racebook Betting: Curlin Florida Derby
Saturday, March 29, 6:42 pm ET, CNBC
- 1 | Neoequos: Edgard Zayas Odds-10/1
- 2 | Cool Intentions: Javier Castellano Odds-20/1
- 3 | Smoken Boy: Edgar Perez Odds-30/1
- 4 | Disruptor: Irad Ortiz Jr Odds-4/1
- 5 | Indecisiveness: Jorge Ruiz Odds-30/1
- 6 | Jimmy’s Daily: Joel Rosario Odds-12/1
- 7 | Enterdadragon: Dylan Davis Odds-30/1
- 8 | Madaket Road: Tyler Gaffalione Odds-7/2
- 9 | Tappan Street: Luis Saez Odds-5/1
- 10 | Sovereignty: Manny Franco Odds-8/5
^The field for the 2025 Curlin #FloridaDerby, Saturday, March 29. First race post time 11:30AM. #GulfstreamPark #ChampionshipMeet pic.twitter.com/JJpQax3anQ
— Gulfstream Park (@GulfstreamPark) March 22, 2025
Smart Picks and Longshots
Sovereignty
It is the son of Gun Runner and won the Grade III Street Sense as a two-year old and then won at the Fountain of Youth, picking up 60 Derby points, charging up late to take the lead and win in both races. His regular jockey, Junior Alvarado, has a shoulder injury, so Manny Franco is filling in. Even though he’s under a different rider this week, he’s still the favorite for a reason.
Disruptor
This horse had his debut at Gulfstream in January, but despite entering as a heavy favorite and setting the pace to start, he ended up in third place. On March 1, he was again the heavy favorite and won by more than nine lengths. This will be his first two-turn race, but he’s also a smart pick.
Neoequos
After dumped his rider in his Gulfstream debut, he broke his maiden just one start later. Since then, he’s finished in the top three in every race. He finished his juvenile season by coming in second in two Florida Stallion Series stakes. He opened this year with an allowance score against horses bred in Florida. Likewise, he came in third at the Grade II Fountain of Youth, picking up 15 Deby points. He’s an interesting pick but might be a better choice lower down the exacta or trifecta.
Looking for a sleeper?
Take a look at Jimmy’s Daily. Irad Ortiz had been his rider, but he decided to switch to Disruptor, so Joel Rosario will step in. He only needed three starts to break his maiden, which was Disruptor’s debut. He went two turns in February in an allowance and came in second behind Indecisiveness.
Tappan Street
This is another potential sleeper. He hasn’t raced as much as some of his competitors, but he did win his debut near the end of last year in Gulfstream, a seven-furlong sprint. He also raced well in the Holy Bull Stakes five weeks later. He came back from sixth to take the lead while out wide on the far turn, clinging to that lead until the last 1/16 of a mile, when Burnham Square, with much more race experience, chased him down and then zipped to a 9 ¼-length win, but Tappan Street held onto second.
^Racebook Betting provided by Xbet
Arkansas Derby
Saturday, March 29, 7:48 pm ET, FS1, CNBC
- 1 | Brereton’s Baytown: Marshall Mendez Odds-30/1
- 2 | First Division: Brian Hernandez Jr Odds-20/1
- 3 | Publisher: Flavien Prat Odds-6/1
- 4 | Bestfriend Rocket: Nik Juarez Odds-20/1
- 5 | Speed King: Rafael Bejarano Odds-15/1
- 6 | Sandman: Jose Ortiz Odds-3/1
- 7 | Monet’s Magic: Luan Machado Odds-20/1
- 8 | Coal Battle: Juan Vargas Odds-7/2
- 9 | Cornucopian: John Velazquez Odds-7/5
Excited to see @ljlmvel and Cornucopian from the outside 9 hole, represent @BobBaffert and the Avengers next Saturday in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby. This impeccably bred colt may be light on experience, but he has earned his place in this race with a great work tab and… pic.twitter.com/h8nGoL5WM9
— Tom Ryan (@TomRyanKY) March 23, 2025
Smart Picks and Longshots
Cornucopian
It has the best odds on the list. He’s in Bob Baffert’s training stable, and historically his name has been associated with winners. He’s only started one race (at Oaklawn), and he ran away from the rest of the field, winning by almost six lengths over six furlongs in a field of ten horses. He’s a smart pick, but is he the best pick? Furthermore, he hasn’t raced through two turns yet, so let’s look at a horse that has won on that type of course already…
Coal Battle
This one has won four stakes in a row, and the last three were part of the Kentucky Derby prep series. When he was two years old, he won the Springboard Mile and now already has 70 points after winning the Smarty Jones and the Rebel, so he’s pretty much a lock to get to Churchill Downs. He generally starts slowly and then comes on strong at the end, but he has also taken the lead from start to finish. He offers slightly more value than Cornucopian, and he’s stacked up a better list of wins.
Sandman
It has fairly short odds as well. He had his debut in June at Churchill and picked up his first victory at Saratoga. After that he hopped on the Kentucky Derby qualification train and came in fifth at the Iroquois (Grade III), third in the Street Sense (Grade III), second in the Southwest and third in the Rebel. He has 29 Derby points and needs some more. He won for a second time in an allowance at Oaklawn between the Derby prep races. I like him in a trifecta or superfecta, but I’m not sure if he will finish higher than that.
Speed King
As far as sleepers go, let’s look at it. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in a 12-horse field, paying on 22/1 odds. Then he started chasing a spot in the Derby and entered the Springboard Mile, where he got out to the early lead before settling for second behind Coal Battle. He won the Southwest but then fell off the table at the Rebel, coming in 10th. He has 25 Derby points. Based on that Southwest win and that early start at the Springboard, he’s an interesting value pick here.
But what about Publisher?
Those odds aren’t particularly long, but he’s still a maiden after entering four maiden special weights and two Kentucky Derby qualification races. He came in sixth at Southwest (Grade III) and fourth in the Rebel (Grade II), and he now has 10 Derby points. Given the fact that he’s still looking for that first win and hasn’t been that close in Derby qualifiers so far, I’d pass on this one.
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