With the Kentucky Derby coming up on Saturday, it’s not too soon to think about sports betting on futures wagers like a potential Triple Crown winner. It’s only been three years since Mike Smith rode Justify to a Triple Crown — and just six years since American Pharaoh took all three races. However, before that, it had been 37 years since a horse was able to win the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.
Will a horse win it all in 2021? Let’s take a closer look at those Triple Crown betting.
Horse Racing News: Triple Crown Updates
First of all, of course, you have to decide whether to bet on whether or not there will be a Triple Crown winner. The odds for this opened at -350 for No and +275 for Yes. However, the number of top horses who have been pulled out of Churchill Downs has led to some interesting factors: a record in the number of horses with just three prior races (4) in the field, and a glut of horses that are +5000 longshots.
Caddo River was the latest horse to drop out of the Kentucky Derby field, pulling out on Sunday. Trainer Brad Cox noted that Caddo River had high temperatures on Saturday, and the blood work revealed a high white blood cell count, so he opted to pull the horse from the May 1 race. Cox also has Essential Quality, the heavy favorite, and Mandaloun, in the field of 20. Caddo River was expected to set the early pace, and it is possible that he would run at the Preakness.
Concert Tour, a Bob Baffert trainee, is another horse focused on the Preakness Stakes. His third-place finish at the Arkansas Derby suggested that he needed more training to race at an elite level. This means that the top five prospects are Essential Quality, Known Agenda, Rock Your World, Highly Motivated and Hot Rod Charlie. Having five horses at +1000 or less has not happened since 2018, when Justify won by 2 ½ lengths. It also happened in 2013, when Orb won by the same distance. However, the horses that are coming in to replace the horses that have opted out of Churchill Downs make the field unusual.
In addition to Concert Tour, Life Is Good (another Baffert horse), is out, thanks to a hindquarters injury. Greatest Honour had to withdraw with ankle trouble after winning three straight races at Gulfstream Park and then coming in third at the Florida Derby. He could return for the Preakness Stakes or the Belmont Stakes. Proxy was not a favorite after some tough results at Fair Grounds, but he was more of an intriguing pick for the exotics at Churchill Downs than some of the replacement horses. Weyburn won the Gotham Stakes at +4600, but when he came in fourth at the Wood Memorial, his connections decided to send him to the Peter Pan Stakes on May 8 instead. A strong finish there could put him in the running for the Preakness or the Belmont.
What this means is that there will be several horses with a real chance of winning the Preakness who will not run in the Kentucky Derby. This happens every year, but the number of horses in this situation is higher than usual in 2021. This means that a “Yes” wager at the Triple Crown should come at a high payoff.
Essential Quality is a prototypical Triple Crown pick, of course. He is a perfect 5 of 5 in the races he has run so far, and four of those wins have come in graded stakes. So he definitely has the potential to pull off the trifecta. But this prize is rare for a reason, because the horse temperament, racing conditions and other factors have to align just right for one horse to win all three races. Given the number of top horses who will come back for one or both of the last two races, it’s hard to argue for a “Yes” bet here.
Triple Crown Betting Odds
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