2018 MLB Wild Card Odds & Predictions

Monday featured a first in Major League Baseball — a day with two different tiebreakers. The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central crown, and the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Colorado Rockies to win the NL West. Now the Rockies visit the Cubs for the wild card position in the National League Division Series on Tuesday in a series that will begin Thursday. In the American League, there has been a lot less drama down to the wire, as Oakland and the New York Yankees have been the presumptive wild card teams for several weeks. They meet Wednesday night in The Bronx for the wild card slot in the American League Division Series. We have a MLB Wild Card betting preview for each of the two contests.

2018 MLB Wild Card Odds & Predictions

Get past the #WildCard game and anything can happen. pic.twitter.com/XpsrPox9xc

— MLB (@MLB) October 2, 2018

Tuesday, October 2, 8:00pm ET, ESPN

Colorado (+110) at Chicago Cubs (-120)

• Projected Pitching Matchup: Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85) (COL) vs Jon Lester (18-6, 3.32) (CHI)

The Rockies found themselves in a 5-0 hole in Monday’s tiebreaker and simply could not climb up out of it. For the year, though, Kyle Freeland has been one of their most successful pitchers, posting 202 ⅓ innings and striking out 173 baters. The Rockies will be looking for some offensive out of such leaders as Charlie Blackmon, who slugged 29 home runs and drove in 70 runs during the year, as well as Nolan Arenado, who belted 38 long balls and drove in 110 runs. Wrigley Field is not as hitter-friendly as is Coors Field, but the Rockies should get a few pitches to hit. Once they get on base, there is also the fact that Jon Lester simply cannot throw to first base on a pickup move, one of the more notorious mental blocks in all of professional sport. Freeland gives the Rockies their best shot to advance to a postseason series. Chicago’s offense didn’t show up for the tiebreaker game against Milwaukee, as they scored just a single run on three hits, while the Brewers were able to pound out a dozen hits and score three times. However, they send possibly their best pitcher out there on Tuesday in Jon Lester, who has thrown 181 ⅔ innings and fanned 149 batters. He has significant experience in the postseason and has the attitude to lead the Cubs to the best-of-seven round. Chicago will look for offense from Anthony Rizzo, who hit 25 home runs and drove in 101 runs, and Javier Baez, who had 111 runs batted in and 34 home runs. The Cubs did lose a 4 ½-game lead over the Brewers in the last month of the season, but they still went 16-12 over that stretch going into the tiebreaker. Lester faced the Rockies once this season, permitting a pair of unearned runs in five-plus innings, but that was back in the spring. MLB Wild Card Prediction: Chicago 4, Colorado 2

Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Oakland (+170) at N.Y. Yankees (-180)

• Projected Pitching Matchup: Liam Hendriks (0-1, 4.13) (OAK) vs Luis Severino (19-8, 3.39) (NY)

Oakland enters this contest planning to use their bullpen for the whole contest. Liam Hendriks will appear as the “opener”, a trend that is growing for some teams. He has only pitched 24 innings this season, so I wouldn’t expect him to stay out there more than an inning, or maybe two, before Mike Fiers or Trevor Cahill comes on in a long relief role. Fiers started 30 games this season and put up a 3.56 ERA, and Cahill pitched 110 innings with a 3.76 ERA. Oakland’s bullpen posted a 3.37 ERA for the season, third-best in all of baseball, so this approach could work. On offense, Jed Lowrie posted a .346 average against the Yankees this season, driving in six runs in 26 at-bats. He hit 23 home runs and drove in 99 runs on the year, and he has played in 22 career postseason games, with five RBI. The A’s have the confidence to come into the Bronx and test the Yankees. Luis Severino has certainly earned this chance at a postseason start in his 191 ⅓ innings of work on the season. He limited the A’s to a run over six innings in a 6-2 win back in May, but then the A’s torched him for six runs in 2 ⅔ innings on September 5. In his career, Severino has struggled against the A’s, with a 1-1 record in four starts and a 5.23 ERA. He also had major trouble in the wild card game last year, giving up three runs in just a third of an inning against Minnesota before getting the hook. I see the A’s coming into Yankee Stadium and pounding Severino again. MLB Wild Card Prediction: Oakland 4, New York 3