April is often a crazy month in Major League Baseball, as Cinderella teams take off from the beginning while the contenders struggle. We’re still seeing this in the American League East, as Tampa Bay has taken off with a 12-4 record and leads the New York Yankees by 5 ½ games and the Boston Red Sox by six. Seattle had taken off with a hot start and is still 13-5, but the Houston Astros have now started to play winning baseball and are just a game out of the division lead. San Diego is still leading the National League West with an 11-6 record, but the Dodgers are just two games back — while the Rockies, who some see as a contender, have won just four of their first 16 games. What games make for solid sports betting opportunities this week? Take a look at our MLB Odds.
Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – April 15th Edition
Runs per game (MLB ranking) NYM — 6.07 (4th) WAS — 5.93 (5th) PHI — 5.64 (6th) ATL — 5.47 (7th)
— Matt Gelb (@MattGelb) April 15, 2019
N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
- When: Monday, April 15, 7:00pm ET, (ESPN)
- Projected Pitching Matchup: Noah Syndergaard (1-1, 4.74 ERA) (NY) vs Aaron Nola (1-0, 6.46 ERA) (PHI)
The New York Mets are right in the thick of the National League East with a 9-6 record, but while they have won two of Syndergaard’s three starts, they have permitted 14 runs in those two games. He has pitched 19 innings in those three starts, permitting 13 combined hits, 12 earned runs and a pair of home runs. His best start came at home against Washington on April 4, when he permitted just one run on two hits, but the Mets didn’t score and the Nationals won, 4-0. On April 10, he permitted four runs on five hits over seven innings in a 9-6 win. So if Syndergaard is going to win, the Mets will need to score a lot.
This could turn into a high-scoring game, as Phillies starter Aaron Nola has also started three games but two of them have also been slugfests for the opposition. His first start of the season was strong (two hits, one run over six innings), but since then he has thrown 9 ⅓ combined innings in his last two starts, permitting 10 earned runs on 12 hits, including five home runs. So if Nola can find his ace-quality stuff at home, then Philadelphia could win, but this is more likely to turn into a hitting exhibition.
Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia 8, New York 6
Boston Red Sox at N.Y. Yankees
- When: Tuesday, April 16,6:35pm ET6:35pm ET
- Projected Pitching Matchup: Chris Sale (0-3, 9.00 ERA) (BOS) vs James Paxton (1-2, 6.00 ERA) (NY)
Chris Sale has made three starts for Boston this season. Two have been dreadful, as the Mariners and the Blue Jays combined to pound him for 12 earned runs on 13 hits over seven combined innings. In his other start, he held Oakland to one run on three hits but the Red Sox couldn’t score. Until Sale finds his stuff, it’s hard to bet on him, particularly with a lineup as potent as the Yankees’ coming to town. Boston did beat Baltimore on Sunday to move to 6-10, but the Red Sox are still a half-game behind the Pinstripes heading into this week’s series at Yankee Stadium.
Sale’s counterpart is James Paxton, who has also struggled this season. In his last two starts, Paxton has permitted nine earned runs on 16 hits, including three home runs, striking out 14 but walking five. The Yankees lost to the Chicago White Sox on Sunday but have had slightly more consistent offense than the Red Sox have. In front of the Yankees’ home faithful, and given the fact that Sale has given up so many runs already, I like the Yankees here.
Final Score Prediction: New York 7, Boston 5
