The 2021 MLB postseason is underway, and the Boston Red Sox started the wild card round off with a 6-2 win over the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Since Boston was down 3-0 to the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS, the Red Sox have won eight of nine postseason games against the Pinstripes and have won four World Series titles, to just one for New York. The Red Sox now prepare for an ALDS date with the AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays. The NL wild card game comes tonight, as the St. Louis Cardinals, who rode a 17-game winning streak into the postseason, now face the Los Angeles Dodgers in Chavez Ravine.
Let’s take a look at the possible World Series matchups from a sports betting perspective.
MLB News: World Series Updated Possible Matchups
American League
Boston Red Sox (AL Wild Card Winners)
Injuries have wreaked havoc on all of the offenses in Major League Baseball, and an interesting factor is the small number of players (around 50) who will have had at least 250 plate appearances during the regular season. However, if you look at the top 25 in terms of OPS of those 50, seven play for Boston. Xander Bogaerts and Kyle Schwarber are in that group, and both homered in the wild card game. Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez (who was off the wild card roster but should be back for the Division Series) have all been hot this season as well. Boston hits the ball hard — but their pitching will take place by committee. Only a quarter of the Boston rotation’s starts have led to quality starts, but that might not matter as much in the playoffs, when rotations shorten, the fourth and fifth starters become long relievers, and managers go an at-bat at a time with respect to bringing in relievers.
Chicago White Sox (AL Central Champions)
No pitching staff in the postseason has a higher average pitch velocity than the White Sox, and Chicago is second to just Milwaukee in terms of strikeout rate. The bullpen has a bunch of hard fastballers as well. However, they start out with the Houston Astros — who strike out less frequently than any other team in MLB. Keep an eye on Luis Robert, who has hit .365 since coming back on August 9. He has posted 24 extra-base hits in just 40 games.
Houston Astros (AL West Champions)
The Houston offense has elite balance. They hit for average more than power, they hit well against both righties and lefties, they don’t strike out, and they drive in runners in scoring positions. They have hitters who can get the long ball, but they don’t rely heavily on it. Their pitchers tend to get in trouble early in the count, as they don’t throw first-pitch strikes as often as they should. Lance McCullers Jr could emerge as a fall hero, as hitters are averaging just .144 against his curveball and .148 against his slider.
Tampa Bay Rays (AL East Champions)
Tampa Bay has pitched with a postseason approach all season long. The starters don’t go as long, their middle relievers come in early, and they use that bullpen depth to finish games. That’s one factor in Tampa Bay’s MLB lead in comeback wins this year. However, among postseason teams, Tampa Bay has the third-highest dependence on home runs to score, and when the pitching improves in the postseason, home runs can be tougher to come by.
National League
St. Louis Cardinals (2nd Wild Card)
Since August 15, the Cardinals have MLB’s fifth-best run differential. Their defense is elite, and they don’t give up many home runs. However, they have MLB’s lowest strikeout rate (for pitchers). Watch Paul Goldschmidt, who had a .391 average and seven home runs during that 17-game winning streak in September, and he has an OPS over 1.000 for the second half of the season. They will need this grit to continue if they want to get by the 100+-win Dodgers and Giants.
Los Angeles Dodgers (1st Wild Card)
If the Dodgers can get by St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright, set to start the wild card game, then the Dodgers could be very difficult to stop. They led MLB in run differential in low-, medium- and high-leverage situations, which means that the season series with the Giants was basically the only problem that they couldn’t solve. Clayton Kershaw is not likely to appear in the postseason, which makes the performance of Walker Buehler (11 postseason starts, 61 ⅔ IP, 83 K, 2.35 ERA) even more important.
Atlanta Braves (NL East Champions)
Quality pitching down the stretch carried the Braves into the postseason; since the trade deadline, Atlanta’s rotation has the third-best ERA in MLB. The bullpen has ranked fifth since then, after ranking 18th in the first half of the season. The Braves swing more at first pitches than anyone else in the postseason, which elite pitching could take advantage of. Look for Charlie Morton, who has a 7-3 playoff career record, with a 3.38 ERA, to carry the rotation. He is the only pitcher ever to win Game 7 of an LCS and Game 7 of a World Series; he accomplished that with Houston in 2017.
Milwaukee Brewers (NL Central Champions)
The top three starters for Milwaukee’s rotation are Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, and it is hard to come up with a tougher trio among the other postseason rosters. The bullpen is a bit short-handed, so the starters will have to carry more of the load, thanks to righty Devin Williams punching a wall to celebrate the Brewers’ division title. If the Brewers advance, it will be due to their starting pitching.
San Francisco Giants (NL West Champions)
San Francisco’s bullpen is tops in MLB in ERA and WHIP. Their record in one-run games is almost transcendent. Their key task is getting past the Dodgers — although if the Cardinals can pull off the huge upset, the task becomes much easier, unless the Cardinals can catch the same sort of lightning in a bottle that Washington did. An interesting fact is that the Giants led the National League with home runs, but their top slugger, Brandon Belt, “only” hit 29, suggesting wide distribution.
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