The 162-game regular season in Major League Baseball is a sprint unlike what any of the other North American professional sports faces, and so you will see some teams go through fits and starts at various points in the season before settling down to expectations. Obviously, you have some exceptions, like the San Francisco Giants a year ago, but when teams take off at an unusually low or high level compared to their expectations in April and May, things usually go through a correction. For example, the 1989 Texas Rangers started out with a 17-5 record…and finished at 83-79, not an awful season, but not the tremendous season that they started toward. Let’s look at some of the MLB betting favorites, smart picks and dark horses after the second week of the 2022 regular season.
MLB News: Favorites, Smart Picks and Dark Horses after Week 2
Favorites
Toronto started off somewhat slowly but has won seven of ten to lead the American League East with an 11-6 record. One major reason has been new starting pitcher Kevin Gausman, who has thrown 18 ⅔ innings, but he has not yet issued a walk or permitted a home run. That sort of pitching will set the table for one of the sport’s most explosive offenses.
San Francisco has gotten stellar starting pitching out of Carlos Rodon, who left the White Sox to join the Giants. He is tied for first in MLB in strikeout rate (44.6%) and tied for fourth with a 1.06 ERA. In 17 innings pitched, he also has yet to permit a home run.
The Mets can take some solace during the absence of starting pitcher Jacob deGrom thanks to the terrific start from Carlos Carrasco. He is second in MLB with an 0.60 WHIP and has posted a 29.9% strikeout rate. Most importantly, after two seasons with rising walk rates, his control is as good as it has ever been. He struggled last year with the Mets due to injuries, but this year it looks like the mets have the real deal.
The Dodgers came into 2022 with questions about pitching depth, bungs are going well so far. Clayton Kershaw had a perfect game going for seven innings before hitting his pitch count maximum, and he leads MLB with an 0.95 WHIP. The Dodgers’ entire pitching staff has a WHIP of 0.95 and an ERA of 2.22, and a permitted batting average of .191. All three of those numbers are tops in MLB. The fact that they are scoring 5.47 runs per game, also tops in the sport, is just adding insult to injury.
Smart Picks
Yes, the Yankees are 10-6, but there are some outliers in their numbers that could spell trouble. NEstor Cortes has a 44.6% strikeout rate, which has him tied for first in MLB for pitchers with a minimum of 15 innings pitched. That is a number that will drift back down to earth, but the real question is Joey Gallo. Since 1920, no position player in MLB had gone more than 11 games with zero runs, zero RBI and 15 or more strikeouts. It took him 15 games to score and 16 games to drive in a run and get an extra-base hit. Did he leave his best bats in Texas?
St. Louis is getting terrific numbers out of Nolan Arenado, who is tied for the MLB lead with a .727 slugging percentage. He ranks second in OPS at 1.154. The shortstop situation needs help, though, as Paul DeJong can’t bat well enough to hold the position, while Edmundo Sosa doesn’t look solid enough to be an everyday player.
Dark Horses
Seattle is getting nice work at the plate from Ty France, whose 24 hits lead MLB, and J.P. Crawford, hitting .352 and posting a 5.9% strikeout rate that is the lowest in MLB. Those two are helping cushion the damage that prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are doing, with both currently in the top ten in strikeout rate. Logan Gilbert leads the American League with a 0.54 ERA as well.
I didn’t expect to have the White Sox as a dark horse, but they have dropped seven in a row. Eloy Jimenez will sit for six to eight weeks with his hamstring strain. Dallas Keuchel’s pitching has been horrendous to this point. Yes, they could right the ship and start winning, but a seven-game skid can be more than an outlying trend.
MLB Betting Odds
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