We’re four days into the 2022 Major League Baseball season, which means it’s time for overreactions from the “experts” on the national pastime. Tampa Bay is 3-0 – but they got to start with a series against Baltimore, whom they have beaten 15 straight times now. The Rangers jumped out to a 7-0 lead on Opening Day but lost in Toronto, 10-8, and they are 1-3, thanks in large part to horrendous pitching. The Dodgers, universal favorites to win the World Series, are “just” 1-2, while the Colorado Rockies, widely picked to finish in the basement of the division with Arizona, are 3-1 to start the season. It’s a marathon, so let’s take a judicious look at some MLB betting insights after the first weekend of the season.
MLB News: Favorites, Smart Picks and Dark Horses for 2022
If you need a lesson in perspective, the Orioles started 2021 off with a three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. By the end of the season, the Sox had won 92 games, while Baltimore won just 52. So if your team struggled in the first series of the season, take heart – they have a lot more struggling to do before you can count them out.
Run differential is also a statistic that looks overrated. Look at the rebranded Cleveland Guardians. Their run differential after three games is +11. How? Because they lost two squeakers and then delivered a 17-3 whipping. Unfortunately, run differential doesn’t get you into the postseason.
The only team that was unbeaten after the weekend was Tampa Bay, permitting four runs while scoring 15 in their first three games. The Rays won 96 games in 2019, posted a 40-20 record in the shortened 2020 campaign, cruising to a pennant, and then they won 100 games a year ago. Despite the fact that we keep hearing that this is a “small market” team, the Rays find ways to keep putting quality lineups on the field. That’s an insight that you can actually use in sports betting.
Last week we wrote about how the Blue Jays’ Hyun-Jin Ryu was looking for an opportunity at redemption after an awkward exit from Los Angeles. However, he’s 35 years old and was already looking old at some points in the 2021 campaign. Then he got shelled by Texas as the Rangers avoided the sweep with a big win on Sunday.
Did you know that Colorado was 48-33 at home last year? That just tells you how dreadful they were on the road, of course. So don’t overreact to the Dodgers dropping two of three in the Mile High City, because the Dodgers certainly aren’t.
The Mets almost started 4-0, but things fell apart two innings away from that immaculate opening to the season. Still, 3-1 is a good place to be given how star-crossed the Mets have been the last few seasons. How long will it take the team to stop listening to Buck Showalter, though?
You might think that Philadelphia moved to the American League, because their lineup is all about hitting the ball as hard as you can, with minimal emphasis on finding players who can field their positions. Also, the Phillies’ bullpen will permit a lot of big hits. So expect a lot of 8-6 games, which are fun to watch but which also tend to turn into burned-out pitching staffs by the Fourth of July.
Did the Padres lose in horrendous fashion on Opening Day? Yes. Did they bounce back with three wins in a row? Yes. Credit Bob Melvin for bringing a more, shall we say, confident approach in the manager’s chair.
The Cubs had to open their season against three straight All-Star starting pitchers, just the third time that had ever happened. Seiya Suzuki looks like the real deal – and the Cubs are 2-1.
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