ALCS Game 1: NY Yankees vs. Houston MLB Lines & Prediction

The New York Yankees came back from a 2-0 deficit in their American League Division Series against the Cleveland Indians and took the next three, emerging in Game Five to advance to the American League Championship Series, where the hot-hitting Houston Astros face them. The Astros overwhelmed the Boston Red Sox with their bats…while the Yankees were largely able to cool down the Cleveland Indians’ offense. Can the Yankees pull the same magic off against Houston? Or will the Astros’ offense claim another victim? Check out our MLB lines for this series opener.

ALCS Game 1: NY Yankees vs. Houston MLB Lines & Prediction

Dreams do come true. #ALCS pic.twitter.com/16I1SqRjHj

— MLB (@MLB) October 12, 2017

When: Friday, October 13, 2017, 8:08pm ET Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston TV: FS1 Radio: ESPN Radio Live Stream: MLB.tv MLB Lines: Astros -175 Pitching Matchup: Undecided (NY) vs Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA) (HOU)

Why should you bet on the Yankees?

The New York Yankees just eliminated the Cleveland Indians — who had the first pitching staff in the history of MLB to average double digits in strikeouts per nine innings pitched. They also led the American League in ERA, strikeouts and WHIP. And that’s with Aaron Judge swinging and missing at every pitch in sight. So the Yankees have a dangerous lineup top to bottom, as they showed in Game Five of the ALDS, when shortstop Didi Gregorius homered twice off Cleveland starter Corey Kluber, staking the Pinstripes to an early 3-0 lead. And what about pitching? The Yankees have 23-year-old Luis Severino, who did not pitch well in the ALDS but had a terrific season. They also have the ageless C.C. Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka, giving them three pitchers who have put together dominant outings so far in this postseason. But can they control the likes of Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa? The Astros outscored Boston in their three ALDS wins by a combined 21-8 (and in their first two games by a combined 16-4). Can the Yankees keep up with those Houston bats?

Why should you put your money on the Astros?

Dallas Keuchel showed his Cy Young form in Game Two of the ALDS, throwing 5 ⅔ strong innings while permitting just a single run on three hits, fanning seven batters. This will be Keuchel’s fourth postseason starts; in his first three playoff appearances, he has posted a stellar 0.96 ERA. Against the Yankees, Keuchel has started seven times, posting a 5-2 record and a 1.24 ERA — including a big win in the wild card game in 2015. The Astros’ offense is even more impressive than Keuchel. Houston led MLB in runs scored (896), team batting average (.282), on-base percentage (.346), and slugging percentage (.478). They came in second in home runs with 238 — just three behind these Yankees, who hit 241. However, the Yankees’ power came with a lot more strikeouts than the Astros put up. Aaron Judge, for example, set a record for strikeouts in an ALDS — but the Yankees were still able to advance. Can the Astros take advantage? The Astros hit the fastball hard — and they are the hardest to strike out, so they match up with the Yankees’ strengths quite well.

Latest MLB Lines Trends

• NY Yankees are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games
• NY Yankees are 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
• The total went OVER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 5 games when playing Houston
• Houston is 2-5 ATS in the last 7 games
• Houston is 9-2 SU in the last 11 games
• The total went OVER in 8 of Houston’s last 12 games

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

The Astros have had plenty of time since their Game Four win to set up their pitching staff for the ALCS, and they also have a bullpen that has more rest than what the Yankees will bring into Game One. The Yankees do ride in on a wave of emotional energy after completing that comeback from a 2-0 hole in the ALDS, but the Astros have the experience of putting together a dominant regular season — and seeing a swoon in July and August turn into a hot September. With the intangibles basically even, I have to go with the home team — and the team with the better historical offensive numbers for the season so far. I predict that Houston will come away with a win in their opener, prevailing 6-3.