MLB Analysis For The 2022 Season: Reality Beyond The Odds

MLB Analysis For The 2022 Season: Reality Beyond The Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers, once again, sit atop the MLB betting odds list to win the World Series this fall. They have only won one title since 1988, but their roster has been stacked for half a decade now, showing just how difficult it is to turn a huge payroll into a title. The defending champs are the Atlanta Braves, right now the third-best choice on the odds list from the National League despite the departure of Freddie Freeman in free agency. But odds aside, who can win the title this time around? We have some thoughts for you.

MLB News: Forget the Odds — Who Will Really Win?

 

What about the Blue Jays?

Toronton won 91 games last year, posting the second-best record of any team to miss the playoffs in the two-wild card structure. However, center fielder George Springer missed half the season due to injury, and starting pitchers Alek Manoah and Jose Berrios also only played half the year. Marcus Semien departed in free agency, but the team brought in Matt Chapman. Robbie Ray won the AL Cy Young last year but is gone now – replaced by Kevin Gausman, who might be even better, and southpaw Yusei Kikuchi could be the next Ray. Bo Bichette and Valdimir Guerrero Jr are just coming into their primes, and while Toronto had to play 116 games outside Toronto last year, this time around they get their full 81 home games and could benefit from visiting teams who don’t meet the stronger vaccination requirements in Canada. Four teams could make the playoffs out of the AL East, but even so, Toronto looks built to last.

Did the Mets just buy a title?

Shelling out $250 million brings a lot of talent in the door, and the Mets inked Francisco Lindor and Max Scherzer to deals. To support them, they signed Mark Canha and Starling Marte, which could provide Pete Alonso with enough protection in the lineup to have a breakout season. Carlos Carrasco returns to the rotation after elbow surgery, and Chris Bassitt had a quiet year in Oakland but will get much more buzz from the New York media. Manager Buck Showalter has done well at just about all of his stops in the past (although Texas and Baltimore represent exceptions). Jacob deGrom’s injury and Max Scherzer’s age make this team a big question mark, but the ceiling is sky-high.

Are the Padres still a mirage?

Manny Machado. Fernando Tatis Jr. Blake Snell. Yu Darvish. Mike Clevinger. How did this team bottom out after the All-Star break? Injuries played a role, as did management, and now the team has steady hand Bob Melvin from Oakland in to serve as skipper, and the team picked up Sean Manaea from Oakland’s latest fire sale. Luke Voit comes to town, along with enigmatic pitcher Nick Martinez. So the rotation should be more stable, and even with Tatis’ injury to start the season, the Padres have depth to go along with that glut of talent. I’m not sure if they win the NL West, but once they get to the playoffs, this is a team that could explode.

What will the Phillies do?

Nick Castellanos is the latest craze in the City of Brotherly Love, as the Phillies are following an American League formula to victory: stack up as many big bats in your lineup, and score, score, score. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Didi Gregorius, and Castellanos could anchor a scary batting order. Harper won the MVP last year, but in almost three of every five plate appearances, he came to bat finding the bases empty. With Schwarber batting leadoff instead of Odubel Herrera, that should be a problem less of the time…and Harper had a .429 on-base percentage, which should lead to more runs…in a division that isn’t all that scary.


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