Expert Analysis: MLB Week 23 – Top Picks and Predictions

At this writing, the San Diego Padres (78-61) are in the first wild-card position, three games ahead of the Atlanta Braves. Good star of the week for your Top MLB Betting Games!

They also just got a boost with the return of star right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr, who came off the 60-day IL Monday after missing over two months with a stress reaction in his right femur.

He was listed as batting second in Monday’s opener against the Detroit Tigers, his first game action since June 21.

Last year, he won the NL Platinum Glove and Gold Glove awards after just his first season playing right field. When he went on the IL, he was batting .279 with 36 RBI and 14 home runs.

He’s also a major energy contributor in the clubhouse, so he should contribute in multiple ways as the Padres look to ride their momentum into the postseason.

Top MLB Betting Games with Picks & Odds for Today | MLB Odds

Is MLB action part of your sports betting plan? Check out our top contests in the early part of the week.

Boston Red Sox at N.Y. Mets -124, O/U 4.5

Pitchers: Kutter Crawford (8-12, 4.12 ERA) (BOS) vs David Peterson (8-1, 2.83 ERA) (NY)
When: Tuesday, September 3, 7:10 pm ET, TBS

Boston had picked things up in July and August, but now they’ve dropped seven of ten and sit four games behind Kansas City for the last wild-card position in the American League.

The Royals have dropped six in a row, though, so there’s still plenty of opportunity for the Sox to start some winning ways and get into the postseason.

They need to start with their bats, because Kutter Crawford has losses in his last three starts despite allowing no more than three runs in any of them.

The Boston bats have kicked in a grand total of three runs over his last three starts, all losses to Baltimore (4-2), Arizona (4-1) and Toronto (2-0).

The loss to the Blue Jays was the most galling because, while Crawford allowed two runs over 6 ⅔ innings on six hits and a pair of walks, the bullpen shut the Blue Jays down while the bats just did not produce.

The Mets are also in fourth place in the wild-card race – just one slot out of a postseason berth.

They are one game behind the Atlanta Braves and have a nice four-game winning streak as well as seven victories in their last ten games.

David Peterson has been a major part of the Mets’ surge – in August, he started six games, going 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA. He only allowed more than two earned runs in one game and held the opposition to one run three times.

The Mets went 5-1 in his six starts, including a 3-2 win at Arizona on Thursday that saw Peterson throw seven strong innings, allowing a pair of runs on seven hits while striking out four and walking two.

MLB Pick: Mets to win, take the under.

Cleveland Guardians -127 at Kansas City Royals (O/U 4)

Pitchers: Tanner Bibee (10-6, 3.65 ERA) (CLE) vs Brady Singer (9-9, 3.36 ERA) (KC)
When: Tuesday, September 3, 7:40 pm ET

The Cleveland Guardians have now won two straight after opening their series with Kansas City with a 7-5 win.

With six wins in their last four games, they lead Minnesota by four in the American League Central with just about a month to play.

Tanner Bibee’s last two starts have not been strong, though, as he has allowed nine runs on 16 hits and three walks while striking out a dozen over 10 ⅔ innings combined.

That has led to a 5-3 loss to Texas on Friday, but the bats and bullpen bailed him out on Wednesday as the Guardians beat the Royals at home, 7-5.

The Royals are on a six-game skid right now, but it would take some continued losing for them to fall out of the third wild-card position.

Brady Singer has had two solid starts in August, holding the Reds scoreless over five innings on August 18 in an 8-1 win and holding the Astros to a pair of runs on five hits over six innings on Thursday, only to see the bullpen give up four runs in a 6-3 loss.

In his other three August starts, he allowed 15 runs on 29 hits over 15 ⅔ innings; his record for August is 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA.

With both of these pitchers starting to slip a bit, I think the Guardians can make it two wins in two games in Kansas City, but expect some scoring.

MLB Pick: Guardians win, take the over.

If you like close division races in Major League Baseball, then 2024 is your Top MLB Betting season. The best team in the sport right now, the L.A. Dodgers, is only on track to win 96 games.

The last time no team won 100 or more games in a regular season was back in 2014.

In this unusually competitive season, four of the six division leaders lead by fewer than three games with 33 days left to go, and the AL Central has three teams that sit within three games of first.

The Central has either gone to Minnesota or Cleveland for seven of the last eight seasons – the outlier came in 2021, when the now-woeful Chicago White Sox won the crown. This time, though, it’s the Kansas City Royals looking to end a playoff drought.

Top MLB Betting Games with Picks & Odds for Today | MLB Odds

As of this writing, Kansas City and Cleveland are tied for the division lead at 75-58, and the Twins are 2 ½ games back at 72-60. Both Cleveland and Minnesota have dropped seven of ten, though, while the Royals have won seven of ten.

Buckle up in the Central! Meanwhile, let’ look at our top sports betting picks from the middle of the week.

San Diego Padres -120 at St. Louis Cardinals +103

Pitchers: Joe Musgrove (4-4, 4.43 ERA) (SD) vs Andre Pallante (6-6, 3.84 ERA) (STL)
When:Wednesday, August 28, 7:45 pm ET

After a dreadful start to 2024 that led to an extended stint on the injured list, Joe Musgrove is back with a vengeance. In three August starts, he has allowed one earned run on six hits over 15 ⅔ combined innings.

He has been pitch-count limited, so he was lifted after 4 ⅓ innings against the Pirates and the Rockies, but he was able to finish seven scoreless innings in just 75 pitches on Friday against the Mets, striking out nine without a walk and allowing just one hit. So is he locked in? Yes.

Andre Pallante has a combined 3.33 ERA through eight starts across July and August, allowing no more than two earned runs in five of those outings.

His last two starts against the Dodgers and Twins, no less have each lasted seven innings, and he has struck out 10 with just four walks, allowing three runs on nine hits over that span, and picking up a pair of wins.

MLB Pick: Padres to win.

San Francisco Giants +135 at Milwaukee Brewers -159

Pitchers: Kyle Harrison (7-5, 4.00 ERA) (SF) vs Freddy Peralta (8-7, 3.86 ERA) (MIL)
When:Wednesday, August 28, 8:10 pm ET

In his last seven starts, Kyle Harrison has allowed more than two runs just twice.

Since getting shelled for six runs over 3 ⅔ innings by Cincinnati on August 3, he has thrown 15 ⅔ innings against the Nationals, Braves and White Sox, allowing six runs on 16 hits, striking out 14 while walking just four.

Against an offensively challenged team like the Brewers, he could pitch deep into the game.

Freddy Peralta has a 3.68 ERA over four starts in the month of August.

He’s either been fairly hittable (like he was when he gave up four runs apiece to the Braves and the Dodgers) or he’s been masterful (as he was when he allowed one combined run over 11 innings against the Guardians and the Cardinals).

Over his last three starts, though, the Milwaukee offense has managed three combined runs, including a big fat zero against the Cardinals on Thursday as Peralta threw five scoreless innings, scattering three hits, with nothing to show for it in a 3-0 loss.

MLB Pick: Giants to win.

World Series Odds to Win for Top 10 Teams

• Los Angeles Dodgers +350
• Phialdelphia Phillies +510
• New York Yankees +540
• Baltimore Orioles +710
• Houston Astros +1150
• Atlanta Braves +1375
• San Diego Padres +1475
• Milwaukee Brewers +1575
• Arizona Diamondbacks +1600
• Cleveland Guardians +1775

Approaching Labor Day, it’s time to see the Top MLB Betting! The World Series favorites are the L.A. Dodgers.

They opened with +550 odds after the 2023 World Series, with those odds dropping to +450 after they signed Shohei Ohtani in free agency, and those odds have now dropped to +300.

Those are significantly better than the +500 odds offered for the team with the best record in the National League – the Philadelphia Phillies.

In the American League, the N.Y. Yankees have the best title odds (+590) and pennant odds (+234). As we head into the week, don’t miss our predictions for some of the top matchups.

Top MLB Betting Games with Picks & Odds for the Week 20 | MLB Odds

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (-155) (O/U 8.5)

Pitchers: Tanner Houck (8-8, 3.01 ERA) (BOS) vs Yusei Kikuchi (6-9, 4.49 ERA) (HOU)
When: Monday, August 19, 8:10 pm ET

Tanner Houck has started 10 games since June 13, but he has only figured in four decisions. Some of this has to do with poor run support, and some of this has to do with bullpen disasters.

For example, Houck threw 6 ⅔ innings against the Rangers on Wednesday at Fenway Park, allowing a couple of runs on six hits, striking out three and walking 12. However, the bullpen collapsed, and the Rangers won, 9-7, in 10 innings.

In his previous start, against Houston at home, he held the Astros to a run on four hits over six, but more bullpen problems led to an 8-4 loss to the Astros.

Will the Red Sox offense and bullpen reward Houck for his quality pitching?

Yusei Kikuchi’s record and ERA have both improved since he came over from Toronto via trade.

In three starts with the Astros (two against Tampa Bay and one against Texas), he has thrown 16 ⅓ innings (at least 5 ⅓ innings in each), allowing five runs on 10 hits, striking out 24 while walking six.

The Astros have won all three of his starts, and he’s gotten the victory in two of them, posting a combined 2.70 ERA.

The Astros’ offense has developed consistency, helping them move into first place in the AL West.

MLB Pick: Astros to win.

Cleveland Guardians (+134) at N.Y. Yankees (-159)

Pitchers: Matthew Boyd (0-0, 1.69 ERA) (CLE) vs Luis Gil (12-6, 3.25 ERA) (NY)
When: Tuesday, August 20, 7:05 pm ET

This series is a possible AL playoff preview as the Guardians and the Yankees lead the AL Central and AL East, respectively.

Matthew Boyd returned from Tommy John surgery, which ended his season in Detroit last year, and the Guardians signed him via free agency.

In his first start, he held the Cubs to a run on three hits over 5 ⅓ innings, striking out six without a walk in a 2-1 win.

The lefty will be vulnerable against the mammoth bats of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, though.

Gil has pitched consistently well for the Yankees this season. Since July 2, he has only allowed more than one earned run twice – against Philadelphia on July 29 and again on Monday against the White Sox, who raked him for four runs on seven hits in just four innings.

However, in the rest of his starts during that time period, he’s lasted at least five innings and permitted no more than one earned run.

Given the fact that Boyd is not likely to go more than six innings as the Guardians are being careful with his pitch load, I see the Yankees getting at least as good an outing out of Gil and a better outing from their bullpen at home.

MLB Pick: Yankees to win.

Another Week to Win with out Top MLB Betting Games: The futility continues on the south side of Chicago, as the White Sox have now dropped 20 straight games after a Sunday setback in Minnesota.

This is the longest losing streak for any MLB team in 36 years and just one away from the American League record.

The Twins led, 8-0, after the second inning, and while the White Sox narrowed the gap to 10-7 during the eighth inning, they ended up giving up three more runs to fall, 13-7.

The MLB record of 21 straight losses is the property of the 1988 Baltimore Orioles, who started the season within an 0-21 skid.

As we head into the week hopeful that the White Sox can turn things around, let’s take a look at some interesting sports betting matchups to start the week.

Top MLB Betting Games with Picks & Odds | MLB Odds

Houston Astros (-108) at Texas Rangers (O/U 8.5)

Pitchers: Hunter Brown (9-7, 4.11 ERA) (HOU) vs Andrew Heaney (4-11, 4.12 ERA) (TEX)
Monday, August 5, 8:05 pm ET

The Astros started the season ice-cold and have been coming on as of late. Injuries have played a role in Houston’s slow start, but Hunter Brown’s recent successes have been a major part in the team’s revival.

He posted an 11.84 ERA over five appearances in the month of May, but in June his ERA was a minuscule 1.16.

He faced the Rangers in a 6-3 win on July 12, allowing a pair of runs on five hits over six innings, striking out five while walking a pair.

His last start, on July 30, was a bit of a setback as he allowed five runs (four earned) on nine hits over 5 ⅔ innings in a 6-2 loss to Pittsburgh, but he still struck out eight while walking just two.

The Rangers’ offense has been showing more signs of life lately, but they still dropped two of three to Boston over the weekend.

This series against the Astros represents a “must-win” scenario for the Rangers if they want to have a chance at passing Houston and Seattle for the AL West lead.

Andrew Heaney

Heaney has been a sort of scapegoat for frustrated Rangers fans, but his ERA for May was 2.96 and for June was 3.41, as most of his setbacks came as a result of poor run support.

His last two starts haven’t been particularly good, though, as he has allowed 10 earned runs on 13 hits over 9 ⅓ combined innings in losses to Toronto and St. Louis.

He has also had two scoreless innings in the month of July, against Tampa Bay and Baltimore.

Top MLB Betting Pick: Astros to win.

Philadelphia Phillies (O/U 7.5) at L.A. Dodgers (-127)

Pitchers: Aaron Nola (11-4, 3.43 ERA) (PHI) vs Tyler Glasnow (8-6, 3.50 ERA) (LA)
Monday, August 5, 10:10 pm ET, MLB Network

This series could serve as a preview of the National League Championship Series if both of these teams can maintain their strong play into the postseason.

The Phillies open the series with Aaron Nola on the mound, and his 6-1 record away from Citizens Bank Park should be particularly encouraging.

When the Dodgers came east in early July, he held them to one run on a solo shot over six innings, striking out nine and walking two.

In his last two starts, against the Twins and Yankees, he has thrown 11 ⅔ combined innings, allowing three runs on 13 hits, striking out ten and walking six.

Injuries to Consider

The Dodgers have some mounting injury concerns right now, but they’re still favored to win the series opener on Monday.

Pitching depth remains an issue, but Tyler Glasnow has been reliable for L.A. His last four starts have seen his ERA creep upward from 2.88 to 3.50, as he allowed 12 runs (10 earned) in a pair of starts against the Giants and the Brewers.

On Tuesday, he allowed three runs on six hits over seven innings, striking out and walking just one, in a game that the Dodgers would lose, 6-5, in ten innings.

Top MLB Betting Pick: Phillies to win.

Don’t miss the Top MLB Betting Games this weekend! At this writing, Pittsburgh Pirates rookie starting pitcher Paul Skenes is six innings into a no-hitter, with 11 strikeouts at this point in the game.

This is far from an outlier, though; this is just his 11th start of his MLB career. He is the first player in MLB history to be named to an All-Star team the year after getting chosen in the draft.

Through his first 10 career appearances, he has struck out 78 batters, which ranks eighth of all time (Kerry Wood still holds the record with 94 back in 1998).

He’s had at least seven strikeouts nine of those 10 starts, so he’s consistent.

He has only walked 12 batters. The only other pitcher in MLB history ever to strike out 70 or more batters while issuing fewer than 15 walks over his first 10 appearances was Masahiro Tanaka – and that came after Tanaka came from Japan, where he had already put together an established pro career.

Paul Skenes

Skenes has only permitted 14 runs, which is the lowest total of the 16 pitchers who have struck out at least 70 in their first career games.

We seem to be seeing the start of an historic pitching career, and it will be fun to watch Skenes in the All-Star Game next week.

As we head into this weekend, check out our top sports betting picks from Friday’s MLB schedule.

Betting Insights: Top MLB Betting Games for July 12th with Picks & Odds | MLB Odds

Texas Rangers +120 at Houston Astros -147

Pitchers: Andrew Heaney (3-9, 3.80 ERA) (TEX) vs Hunter Brown (6-6, 4.48 ERA) (HOU)
Friday, July 12, 8:10 pm ET

The Rangers sit five games under .500, which is why the defending World Series champions only have two players headed to the All-Star Game – a game that will be played in their home stadium.

The issues for Texas have come at the plate, as most of the hitters who contributed, so mightily last year have gone through struggles.

If you look at Andrew Heaney’s ERA, you understand that he might not be getting run support.

The Rangers have won three of his last five starts, but their two losses (3-1 in Milwaukee and 3-2 in Seattle) show that the bats just aren’t helping Heaney.

The team has won four of their last five, though, so the bats may be coming around.

Since June 13, Brown reeled off an impressive string of four starts against the Tigers, White Sox, Rockies and Blue Jays.

He threw 25 innings and allowed exactly one earned run (on a solo shot), striking out 27 while walking six. However, in Minnesota on Saturday, he got lit up over six innings, allowing seven runs on a dozen hits.

If he finds too much of the plate against Texas, he could get lit up again. The Rangers tend to play the Astros tougher down in Houston than at home over the last two seasons as well.

Top MLB Betting Pick: Rangers to win.

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

Pitchers: Kyle Hendricks (1-7, 7.53 ERA) (CHI) vs Sonny Gray (9-5, 3.30 ERA) (STL)
Friday, July 12, 8:15 pm ET, Apple TV+

Since June 13, Hendricks has made it through six innings exactly once.

He did pitch fairly well against St. Louis on June 14, scattering a pair of hits and throwing 4 ⅓ scoreless innings, but a high pitch count brought in the bullpen, and the offense stayed asleep in a 3-0 loss.

His last three starts (losses in San Francisco and Milwaukee and a home loss to the Angels) have seen the Cubs’ offense produce just two runs, and Hendricks has permitted 11 runs on 15 hits all by himself.

At this point, Hendricks is just an innings-eater heading into the All-Star break.

Sonny Gray’s ERA is still respectable, but it was 2.81 after his start on June 23, a seven-inning, one-run gem against the Giants.

Since then, he has allowed 11 runs (8 earned) on 15 hits while striking out a dozen and walking two.

That tells me he’s finding a lot of the plate. Meanwhile, the Cubs have won five of six, scoring 33 runs in those five wins.

The exception? A 7-0 loss to the Angles that Hendricks pitched for Chicago.

Can the Cubs find their offense for Hendricks this time? Not on the road.

Top MLB Betting Pick: Cards to win.