The Philadelphia Phillies almost missed the 2022 MLB postseason altogether but ended up snagging the last wild card in the National League. Then they went to St. Louis and swept the best-of-three wild card series on the road. They next met the Atlanta Braves, who won 14 more games than the Phillies did during the regular season, and won their Division Series, 3-1. Next up was a date with the San Diego Padres in the NLCS. The teams split the first two in San Diego, and then the Phillies won three straight at home to punch an unlikely ticket to the World Series. They will meet a Houston Astros team that won their division and swept the ALDS and ALCS over Seattle and New York respectively. The last time the Astros faced a wild card team in the World Series, they lost to the Washington Nationals in seven games – with each game going to the road team. What will happen this time around? Don’t miss our sports betting thoughts on Game 1, set for Friday night.
MLB Preview: World Series, Game 1 (Friday, October 28)
Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros
When: Friday, October 28, 2022, 8:03 pm ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
TV: FOX
Radio: ESPN Radio
Live Stream: Sling TV
MLB Odds: Philadelphia +143 / Houston -170 / O/U 6.5 runs / Run Line Houston -1.5
Projected Pitching Matchup:
Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) (PHI) vs Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA) (HOU)
Why should you bet on the Phillies?
The last time Aaron Nola saw the Houston Astros was actually on October 3, down in Houston, in an interleague game. The Phillies rolled, 3-0, as Nola scattered a pair of hits over 6 ⅔ scoreless innings, striking out nine without a single walk. He showed similarly dominant stuff in the wild card round and the Division Series, going 12 ⅔ innings without permitting an earned run in wins over St. Louis and Atlanta. In the NLCS, he gave up the lone Philadephia loss, getting shelled for six runs on seven hits, including a pair of ome runs, over 4 ⅔ innings of what would eventually be an 8-5 loss in Game 2.
At the plate, the Phillies are batting just .237 in the postseason but are putting up 5.2 runs per game and have hit 16 home runs. Their numbers at home are significantly better, as they are hitting .296 at Citizens Bank Park, scoring over seven runs per game – and 12 of their 16 long balls have come in that hitter-friendly park. Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins each hit three home runs in the NLCS, so expect aggressive hitting to continue in the World Series. If you like the Phillies here, you remember their dominant road performances in St. Louis and their ability to split pairs of games on the road in the Division Series and the NLCS – and you think Nola can set down the Astro hitters again.
Why should you put your money on the Astros?
Justin Verlander just continues to pitch ageless baseball. He did get shelled in his only start in the Division Series, giving up six runs on ten hits, including a home run, over four innings against the Mariners. The Astros’ offense sprang to life, though, delivering a walkoff 8-7 win. In the ALCS, Verlander permitted a solo shot and two other hits to the Yankees but also struck out 11 in a 4-2 win. Behind Verlander is a bullpen that led MLB in ERA during the regular season and has posted a 0.82 ERA in the playoffs, with 42 strikeouts.
The Houston batters have a combined average of just .227 but have pounded 12 long balls in just seven games. Jeremy Pena has three of those all by himself, with 22 total bases, and Yordan Alvarez leads the team with eight RBI despite cooling off in the ALCS. Jose Altuve is hitting just .094 in the postseason this year, but if he can get going as well, the Astros could stack up some runs.
Final Score and Prediction
Both teams come in fairly rested, and the Phillies come in with the easy confidence of the underdog, knowing that they have nothing to lose. Also, Aaron Nola does have that big win in Houston just a few weeks ago. However, Verlander has been dominant for months now, and even if the Phillies jump all over him, the Houston bats seem ready to go. If the Phillies are going to get a split in Houston, Game 2 seems like the better bet. I predict a final score of Houston 3, Philadelphia 2.
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