It’s time to plan your MLB Playoffs Betting! In 2024, the Major League Baseball trade deadline came and went without any earthshaking transactions.
It was nothing like the 2022 trade deadline, when the San Diego Padres went all-in, picking up Brandon Drury, Josh Bell, Josh Hader, and Juan Soto.
There were some teams who picked up some improvements for this year, while others looking for the future managed to bring in some prospects.
MLB Betting Analysis: Postseason Predictions after the Trade Deadline | MLB Odds
Now that we’re into August, let’s look at some updated postseason projections for our baseball sports betting enthusiasts.
American League East
The Baltimore Orioles and the N.Y. Yankees are right at the top of the standings right now, with the Boston Red Sox hanging six games back.
The Yankees have some problems with their offense, as the hitters not named Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are still failing to produce regularly.
The Tampa Bay Rays have cashed in, sending seven front-line players elsewhere in exchange for Christopher Morel and a stack of prospects.
The Toronto Blue Jays also did some selling, although they kept Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Most of the unloading had to do with players heading into free agency, although they also dealt away Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who was under team control through 2025.
The Yankees did get Jazz Chisholm Jr who hit four long balls in his first three games, but they only added Mark Leiter Jr to the bullpen.
The Orioles got Zach Eflin, Eloy Jimenez and Trevor Rogers, and those improvements should push them even further ahead of the Yankees to a division title.
The Red Sox went and got catcher Danny Jansen, starting pitcher Jamex Paxton, long reliever Quinn Priester, and setup men Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims.
MLB Playoffs Betting Pick: Orioles win the division; Yankees and Red Sox get wild cards.
^American League Central
The Cleveland Guardians lead the Kansas City Royals by six games. At the trade deadline, they got Lane Thomas and Alex Cobb.
Cobb will help the starting rotation, but it will take a while for him to round into form as he has not appeared in the majors this season.
He did make six minor-league appearances in July, though. The Minnesota Twins are a half-game behind Kansas City, and they needed a starting pitcher and a big bat, but all they got was a retread reliever in Trevor Richard.
Kansas City got Michael Lorenzen, Paul DeJong and Lucas Erceg, but they finish the season with a tough, tough schedule.
Between August 23 and September 11, they play 20 straight games against Philadelphia, Cleveland, Houston, Minnesota and the Yankees. Oof.
MLB Playoffs Betting Pick: Guardians win the division.
^American League West
No one really seems to want to win this division. Seattle and Houston are tied for the AL West lead, but they’re only four games above .500, 4 ½ games ahead of Texas.
The Rangers and Astros opened a three-game set in Arlington on Monday; the Rangers won the opener in 10 innings on a walk-off home run, but they parlayed that momentum into a ridiculous loss on Tuesday as they almost let the likes of Framber Valdez no-hit them.
The Mariners are all in this year, getting Randy Arozarena, Justin Turner, J.T. Chargois and Yimi Garcia at the trade deadline.
Turner fills the giant hole at 1B/DH for the third-lowest scoring offense.
The Astros got Yusei Kikuchi for the rotation, but he has a 6.87 ERA over his last 12 starts. All the Rangers did was ship Michael Lorenzen to Kansas City, add a middle reliever and get a backup catcher.
Yes, the Rangers could benefit greatly from getting healthy, but they don’t seem committed to winning.
MLB Playoffs Betting Pick: Astros win the division; Mariners get a wild card.
^National League East
The Phillies have had a strong hold on the division for much of the season and lead Atlanta by six games.
They could have done something about the problem in center field, but they didn’t. They did overpay to get Carlos Estevez as the closer, but their failure to get Jazz Chisholm stings.
The Braves added Luke Jackson and Jorge Soler, definitely an underwhelming trade haul given the injuries that have riddled their roster.
The Mets might just catch the Braves for second place after getting Paul Blackburn from Oakland to replace Kodai Senga, and they added Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek to the bullpen.
MLB Playoffs Betting Pick: Phillies win the division; Mets get a wild card.
^National League Central
The Milwaukee Brewers lead the St. Louis Cardinals by 5 ½ games, but the Cards look to be gearing up for another fast finish.
Between August 1 and the end of the season, they had a combined record of 111-62 in the 2019, 2021 and 2022 seasons. In 2020, they went 8-4 down the stretch.
The 2023 season was an exception, but they’ve started gearing up already with a 41-29 record that dates back to the middle of May.
The Brewers don’t have Christian Yelich back any time soon (back), and the starting rotation only added Frankie Montas (5.01 ERA), who is now their 17th different starter of the 2024 campaign.
The Pirates added Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Bryan De La Cruz. Going back to a week before the All-Star break, they went on a 14-6 tear. And Paul Skenes’ pitching has taken baseball by storm.
MLB Playoffs Betting Pick: Cardinals win the division; Pirates get a wild card.
^National League West
The Dodgers lead the Padres by 4 ½ games and the Diamondbacks by five despite some injury issues. They also made some upgrades at the trade deadline to help them keep those leads.
They got starting pitcher Jack Flaherty from Detroit to add rotation depth, and they also got Kevin Kiermaier, Tommy Edman, Amed Rosario, and Michael Kopech.
The Padres added Bryan Hoeing, Jason Adam and Tanner Scott to a bullpen that was already stout. However, we don’t know when Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove or Fernando Tatis Jr will return.
Arizona is still waiting for Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez to get off the shelf. All they added were Josh Bell and reliever A.J. Puk.
MLB Playoffs Betting Pick: Dodgers win the division; Padres get a wild card.
^Parker Meadows didn't rob these homers 🤣 pic.twitter.com/7akCcaXbZO
— MLB (@MLB) August 8, 2024
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2024 Who’s In, Who’s Out? Playoff Odds
At this writing, the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season is about two-thirds of the way done. Ready for betting on the MLB Playoffs?
The American League East is a dogfight, with the Baltimore Orioles (64-44) and the N.Y. Yankees (64-45) neck and neck.
The best record in the junior circuit belongs to the Cleveland Guardians (65-42), but both the Minnesota Twins (58-48) and the Kansas City Royals (59-49) are playing quality ball as well.
All five of those teams, along with the Boston Red Sox (56-50), would be leading the American League West, as the Seattle Mariners (57-52) lead a division of teams that haven’t found what it takes to play consistently winning baseball.
MLB Playoffs Betting Predictions: Which Teams Will Make the Playoffs? Odds to Win and More…
In the National League, the best team is the Philadelphia Phillies (65-42), although the L.A. Dodgers (63-45) lead the West by 5 ½ games and made some solid additions at the trade deadline in hopes of staving off the red-hot San Diego Padres (58-51, 8-2 in their last 10). The Milwaukee Brewers (61-46) lead the Central.
Let’s look at which teams will make the playoffs as you consider sports betting for the MLB postseason.
MLB Divisions
Both the American and National Leagues have three divisions. Each division winner gets a slot in the playoffs, and the three teams with the best records who didn’t win a division get wild-card entries.
The three wild-card teams and the division winner with the worst record enter three-game wild-card series, all played in the stadium of the higher seed.
In other words, the lowest division winner hosts a three-game set against the lowest wild-card team, and the highest wild-card team hosts a three-game set against the second wild-card team.
The winners advance to Division Series hosted by the two remaining division winners in best-of-five format.
Those winners emerge to the League Championship Series (best-of-seven), which generate the two teams that meet in the World Series (best-of-seven).
^Certain Contenders
Philadelphia Phillies (62-34)
- Odds to Win the NL East: 89.5%
- Odds to Win the World Series: 19.4%
The Phillies finally have a dominant starting rotation: Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, and Aaron Nola.
They have a combined record of 38-16 and a 2.96 ERA. They have three relievers with ERAs below 2.00: Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm, and Jeff Hoffman.
^N.Y. Yankees (58-40)
- Odds to Win the AL East: 60.1%
- Odds to Win the World Series: 14.6%
The Yankees got enough starting pitching to weather the storm while Gerrit Cole worked his way back from injury, as rookie Luis Gil took Cole’s spot and ran with it.
Juan Soto and Aaron Judge have been the two top hitters in the American League.
Issues with the rotation have emerged, though, as their June ERA was 5.37, and their July ERA was 4.80.
^L.A. Dodgers (56-41)
- Odds to Win the NL West: 93.8%
- Odds to Win the World Series: 17.8%
Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto went a combined 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA over 183 innings before the All-Star break, but now they’re on the injured list.
That list also has Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, Walker Buehler, Brusdar Graterol, and Ryan Brasier. That’s a ton of quality talent, which is why the winning has slowed a bit – since May 21, they are below .500.
^Baltimore Orioles (58-38)
- Odds to Win the AL East: 37%
- Odds to Win the World Series: 8.8%
Baltimore is fifth in runs scored per game in MLB, and five of their players are under the age of 28.
Shortstop Gunnar Henderson is second in fWAR (6.1), third in home runs (28) and fourth in slugging percentage (.584).
Corbin Burnes has been an ace in the rotation, but after that, things get a bit questionable.
^Cleveland Guardians (58-37)
- Odds to Win the AL Central: 58.9%
- Odds to Win the World Series: 5.6%
The bullpen has the Guardians rolling – it leads MLB in ERA (2.62), OPS permitted (.597) and is second in saves (34) and strikeout rate (26.7%).
Closer Emmanuel Clase blew a dozen saves and lost nine games in 2023, but this time around he has a 4-1 record 29 saves and a minuscule 0.81 ERA.
Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith and Tim Herrin are all excellent bridges from the starting rotation to Clase.
Their starting rotation ERA is just 23rd in MLB, though, so they need improvement in there so they don’t depend as heavily on their bats.
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