Expert Analysis: MLB Week 23 – Top Pitchers to Watch

Stay up to date with the latest MLB betting analysis we have for you! The Chicago Cubs made history on Wednesday night, as Shota Imanaga and two relievers combined for a no-hitter in a 12-0 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Cubs had not pulled off a no-hitter at Wrigley Field since 1972. Manager Craig Counsell decided to remove Imanaga after seven innings (and 95 pitches), but Imanaga had no idea that he had not permitted a base hit, so Counsell didn’t have to do much persuading.

The game was an adventure as Chicago third baseman Isaac Paredes committed three errors, including a throwing error on the game’s second play on a ball by Bryan Reynolds that was at first ruled a hit before the change to an error.

Imanaga had seven strikeouts and two walks. Imanaga is now 12-3 and is definitely one of the top MLB pitchers to watch.

As you consider your sports betting in baseball going forward, take a look at these other prominent hurlers.

MLB Betting Analysis: Top Pitchers to Follow in the Week 22

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

11-7, 3.55 ERA, 155 K, 1.29 WHIP

Brown had a dreadful start, with a hideous 11.84 ERA for the month of April. The low point came on April 11 when he allowed nine runs on 11 hits and a walk in just ⅔ of an inning in Kansas City.

However, things have improved since then – his June ERA was 1.16 over five starts, three of which were scoreless. In August, he had five starts with a 2-0 record and a 1.45 ERA.

He saw the Royals once again on Thursday, allowing two unearned runs on two hits while striking out four and walking two.

His stuff is up there with some of the Cy Young favorites right now, and his contributions have helped Houston rise from the basement in the AL West, where they spent much of April, to the top.

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

11-9, 3.43 ERA, 154 K, 1.20 WHIP

Webb had a terrific August, with a 3-0 record and a 2.16 ERA over five starts. His first start of September came on Sunday and was a tough day – six runs on eight hits, including a home run, over six innings in a 7-5 loss to Miami.

However, he didn’t issue a walk, and his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio was 18:4, which is a good way to keep the ball inside the stadium.

The run support has been there for Webb this season, and while there are more dominant pitchers, Webb had not lost a decision since July 20 before the Miami setback.

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

9-2, 2.13 ERA, 142 K, 0.98 WHIP

Were you waiting for Skenes to succumb to the exhaustion of his first MLB season? You’re going to have to keep waiting.

In two of his last three starts, against the Reds and the Cubs, he has thrown 11 shutout innings combined, scattering six hits while striking out 15.

He did issue four walks against the Cubs on Tuesday, which was one reason he hit 100 pitches after just five innings.

However, he picked up the win and remains a scary pitcher on the hill.

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

13-6, 3.11 ERA, 146 K, 1.11 WHIP

Last September was tough for Valdez as his slider stopped breaking reliably and he got shelled in the postseason.

He has his dominant stuff back, and in starts on August 18 and August 30, he threw 14 combined scoreless innings in wins over the Chicago White Sox and the Kansas City Royals.

His outing against the Royals went a hitless seven innings with seven strikeouts and three walks.

In between those starts, he allowed three runs on six hits over 5 ⅔ innings in a 3-2 loss to the Baltimore Orioles.

As long as that nasty slider holds up, Valdez is a pitcher that you can back.

The 162-game regular season that MLB endures each year is a marathon, and just about all starting pitchers see their fortunes ebb and flow as the summer wears on. This and more in the following MLB betting analysis.

The Philadelphia Phillies started the 2024 campaign red-hot, and now that we’re approaching Labor Day, the NL East leaders are seeing their offense cool off and their starting rotation begin to take on water.

Taijuan Walker, the veteran right-handed starter, is heading to the bullpen after a series of poor outings. His last two starts have lasted just a combined nine innings as he has permitted a dozen earned runs and 21 hits.

His season ERA is 6.50 ERA over 14 starts, and his WHIP is an ungainly 1.642. The Phillies are 0-8 in his last eight starts, and now the team looks to bring up Tyler Phillips from the minors to take Walker’s next turn on Tuesday.

MLB Betting Analysis: Top Pitchers to Follow in the Week 21

The starting pitcher is generally a key factor in sports betting decisions for MLB contests, so take a look at the top hurlers for this week.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

15-4, 2.58 ERA, 193 K, 0.93 WHIP

Skubal is tied for first in MLB in wins and is second in ERA. He’s third in both strikeouts and WHIP. Those 193 strikeouts are just four behind the co-leaders, Dylan Cease of the Padres and Chris Sale of the Braves.

He’s the leader in the American League for the Cy Young Award – at this point, he just has to finish the season consistently.

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

15-3, 2.58 ERA, 197 K, 1.02 WHIP

Sale is just a few thousands of an earned run ahead of Skubal and also has a better win-loss percentage. At the age of 35, he has returned to the form he showed several seasons ago before his spate of injuries.

This is his 14th season, and he’s still looking for that first Cy Young Award.

Chris finished in the top five among vote-getters five times, but the trophy has eluded him so far.

His last 14 starts have lasted a combined 86 innings (averaging over 7 innings per start), and he hasn’t permitted more than two earned runs in any of them. Over that stretch, his ERA is 2.20 with a 116:24 K:BB ratio.

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

12-6, 2.74 ERA, 176 K, 1.000 WHIP

Wheeler’s ERA is third in MLB and is in range to win the MLB title if Sale and Skubal falter down the stretch.

Zack’s ERA has been dropping; over his five August starts, he has put up a 1.97 ERA with 37 strikeouts against just five walks.

Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants

2-3, 3.76 ERA, 106 K, 1.11 WHIP

You’re right, that win-loss record is unsightly for a pitcher power rankings list.

However, Snell had four starts in July and posted a 0.75 combined ERA, holding opponents scoreless in three of them. However, his run support was so poor that he registered no decisions.

In August, he finally picked Wins #1 and 2 of 2024 – for Win #1, against Cincinnati, he had to pitch a no-hitter to ensure his win.

He had two more solid starts after that, but in his last start he only made it through three innings, allowing just two hits against Seattle but issuing six walks along the way.

Has he hit problems, or was that just a blip?

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

14-8, 3.19 ERA, 146 K, 1.12 WHIP

At the end of June, Seth Lugo’s ERA was just 2.17. So he’s taken on some water as of late, but he has also eaten up 56 innings over his last nine outings, including a complete-game win over the White Sox on July 21.

He permitted one run on three hits, fanning six without a walk. He held Detroit to a single run over eight innings on August 1.

So the stuff is there, although the Tigers and White Sox aren’t the toughest lineups in MLB right now.

So if you’re looking at betting on a Lugo start, take a close look at the other team’s offensive stats.

MLB Betting Analysis: Don’t look now, but Blake Snell seems to have found his ace-level stuff. He won the National League Cy Young Award last season with the San Diego Padres, who opted to let him leave via free agency.

The San Francisco Giants finally gave him a short-term deal just before Opening Day, which meant that his 2024 campaign had a delayed start.

He’s been on the Injured List several times and, when he was healthy, he didn’t pitch well. He was activated on July 9 from the latest injury having just started six games and posted an unsightly 9.51 ERA.

Since then, he has posted a 0.99 ERA over seven starts, with 45 ⅓ innings pitched and a 60:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Oh, and he no-hit the Cincinnati Reds on August 2.

Opponents have an average of .097 in 159 plate appearances against Snell over this stretch. So he’s definitely one of the hot pitchers for you to follow.

MLB Betting Analysis: Top Pitchers to Follow in the Week 20, Who’s Hot on the Mound?

As you plan your sports betting for MLB this week, take a look at some of the other hurlers to follow as well.

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

7-9, 2.96 ERA, 155 K, 0.88 WHIP

Yes, that win-loss record is unappealing, but many of those losses were the result of minuscule run support from the Seattle bats.

He did have a poor outing on July 29 in Boston, but he started August with a pair of sparkling games, throwing 13 combined innings and allowing just one run on seven hits while fanning 13.

His best weapon is the splitter; opponents are going just 7 for 72 (.097) with 44 strikeouts and a .181 slugging percentage against it during the 2024 season.

Oh, and that WHIP leads Major League Baseball.

Michael King, San Diego Padres

10-6, 3.19 ERA, 161 K, WHIP 1.17

Michael King was part of the Juan Soto deal, which initially looked ridiculous for the Padres, but King’s pitching has come around.

He had a hard time in April, but since May 1, his ERA is just 2.54, and his 2.27 FIP since May 1 is second in MLB, only behind Chris Sale.

In his 17 starts since May 1, the Padres have won 12.

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

9-4, 2.83 ERA, 162 K, 1.02 WHIP

Greene has always been a power pitcher who has struck out batters in bunches, but that hadn’t led to much in the way of wins for his team, as his 96 ERA+ was not that impressive.

However, the adjustments he made ahead of the 2024 campaign have made him much less hittable.

He still leads the National League in walks and hit batsmen, but opponents are only hitting .185 against him with a .300 slugging percentage, making that WHIP even more impressive.

Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

12-9, 3.46 ERA, 186 K, 1.02 WHIP

Cease is second in MLB in strikeouts – however, he leads in strikeouts via the slider (109), the most for any pitcher on any one pitch type this season.

Cease has been even more impressive in reducing walks. He has a career best in walk rate (7.9%), and he has moved from the 51st percentile in walk rate from 2023 to the 25th so far in 2024.

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

7-2, 2.30 ERA, 121 K, 0.97 WHIP

A double-digit losing streak has pushed the Pirates to the very edge of wild-card contention.

This means that the Pirates may take a look at limiting Skenes’ exposure, as the rookie has thrown 119 ⅓ innings so far in his first season in the pros.

He allowed four runs in a start for the first time on Saturday at Dodger Stadium despite fanning eight and walking just one.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

14-4, 2.49 ERA, 185 K, 0.93 WHIP

Skubal leads MLB in wins and ERA. He’s third in strikeouts and second in WHIP, which means that he has the AL Cy Young in the bag barring some brutal collapse in the last six weeks of the regular season.

Two starts ago, he matched his career high for innings pitched in a season (149 ⅓) that he has set three seasons ago. Can he keep the terrific numbers up anyway?

MLB Betting Analysis: Before the trade deadline, two starting pitchers who seemed certain to head to contenders were Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers and Garrett Crochet of the Chicago White Sox. Both are ace-level hurlers, and both are left-handed.

However, July 31 came and went without them moving. Starting pitching is always at a premium, but the prices that the two teams were asking were too high, and so the contenders passed.

As we head into the second full week of August, let’s look at some starting pitchers that you should have in mind as you plan your sports betting.

MLB Betting Analysis: Top Pitchers to Watch in Week 19 | MLB Odds

Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates) – 6-2, 2.25 ERA, 115 K, 0.96 WHIP

This rookie phenom has been at or near the top of MLB in innings pitched, WHIP, and strikeout rate (33.3% at this writing).

He did get roughed up a bit on Saturday in Los Angeles as the Dodgers touched him up for four runs on six hits over six innings, but the fact that the four runs he gave up were the most he had given up in any start this season just shows his dominance.

Could he be hitting some fatigue? We will see, but his ERA has been slowly creeping up from 1.90 since July 11.

Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) – 13-4, 2.57 ERA, 171 K, 0.93 WHIP

Skubal has been an innings-eater for the Tigers; in July, his starts averaged 6 ⅔ innings, and he posted a 2.45 ERA while permitting just a .531 OPS.

The Royals got to him for five runs over 6 ⅓ innings on August 2, but he bounced back five days later to hold the Seattle Mariners to a pair of runs over seven innings in a 6-2 victory.

When he’s pitching, the Tigers are still a smart choice.

Chris Sale (Atlanta Braves) – 13-3, 2.75 ERA, 165 K, 1.00 WHIP

Sale has his ace stuff after all this time, and his durability has finally returned as well.

He has only surrendered more than two runs three times all season – and two of those outings came in April, and the third came on June 1. So consistency is the name of the game.

He hasn’t lost a decision since June 27, and that was the definition of a hard-luck loss after he threw seven innings, struck out 11 batters while issuing just one walk, and allowed one run on four hits in what would turn out to be a 1-0 setback.

Dylan Cease (San Diego Padres) – 11-9, 3.41 ERA, 181 K, 1.01 WHIP

Yes, Dylan Cease had the no-hitter on July 25 in Washington. However, that was the third start in a row in which he had pitched at least six innings without permitting a run. Over 22 combined innings, he struck out 30 batters.

Since then, he has allowed just three earned runs over 11 combined innings (two starts and a one-inning relief appearance) in wins over the Dodgers, Pirates and Marlins.

Corbin Burnes (Baltimore Orioles) – 12-4, 2.71 ERA, 137 K, 1.05 WHIP

Burnes’ strikeout numbers aren’t as gaudy as some of the other pitchers on this list, but that can lead to longer outings, as strikeouts tend to raise your pitch count.

August has been a bit rough in terms of runs permitted (eight runs, seven earned, over 11 innings in wins over Cleveland and Tampa Bay), but he’s consistently stacking up quality starts and going deep into games.

His five-inning night against Cleveland on August 4 was the first time since April 20 that he had a start go fewer than six complete innings.

Zach Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies) – 11-5, 2.78 ERA, 156 K, 1.00 WHIP

Since April 14, Wheeler has only permitted more than two earned runs in a game three times.

In his last two starts (in Seattle and Arizona) he permitted a combined two earned runs over 14 innings on nine hits, striking out 17 while walking just three.

As the postseason approaches, Wheeler looks like he’s locking in for the National League Division Series…and beyond.