MLB Braves @ Cubs Odds, Pick and Betting Prediction

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The Atlanta Braves (69-37) are running away with the National League East, currently leading Philadelphia by 11 ½ games, and their run differential (+159) is the best in the National League by 58 runs. They have won six of ten as they head to Chicago for a three-game weekend set against the Cubs (55-53), who have won eight of their last ten games and have moved up to just three games behind the NL Central-leading Cincinnati Reds. Let’s break down each matchup in this series as you plan your MLB betting for the weekend.

MLB Betting Preview: Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs (August 4-6)

Max Fried (ATL) vs Kyle Hendricks (CHI)

When: Friday, August 4, 2:20 pm ET
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Live Stream: MLB Network, MLB.tv
Projected Pitching Matchup: Max Fried (2-1, 2.08 ERA) (ATL) vs Kyle Hendricks (4-5, 3.49 ERA) (CHI)

Max Fried is finally back on the hill for the Braves after a long stay on the 60-day injured list. A left forearm strain had kept him on the shelf for almost three months, but his four rehab starts went well enough for the team to call him back up. He pitched at High-A Rome and Triple-A Gwinnett, posting a 3.75 ERA, 9.8 K/9 IP, and a 1.500 WHIP. Fried has a 54-21 record since becoming a starter in 2019, with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.133 WHIP. He was the NL Cy Young runner-up in 2022. So if there is any issue for Fried, it is the possibility of rust as he returns to game speed.

Kyle Hendricks has been serviceable in the month of July, posting a 4.29 ERA and a 1-2 record over six starts. He has only allowed more than four earned runs once in an 8-3 loss to Boston on July 14. In his last three starts, he has permitted seven earned runs on 17 hits over 19 ⅓ combined innings, striking out 11 while walking just two. He’s finding a good bit of the plate, but he’s lasting six or more innings regularly and giving his team a chance to win ball games. With Fried coming back from an extended injury absence, I’m going with the home team. Cubs to win.

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Bryce Elder (ATL) vs Undecided (CHI)

When: Saturday, August 5, 2:20 pm ET
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Live Stream: ESPN+
Projected Pitching Matchup: Bryce Elder (8-2, 3.18 ERA) (ATL) vs Undecided (CHI)

Bryce Elder had a couple of rough outings in the middle of July, getting torched for a dozen runs on 13 hits over six combined innings in losses to Tampa Bay and Arizona, but he has settled down in his last two starts. He faced the Milwaukee Brewers on July 23 and 29, allowing just three earned runs on eight hits over 13 combined innings, striking out five while walking two. The Brewers don’t have the most dynamic offense in MLB, but they are still ahead of the Cubs, who are using a spot starter or a long relief committee to pitch this game, so I like Elder to cruise on the road. Braves to win.

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Charlie Morton (ATL) vs Justin Steele (CHI)

When: Sunday, August 6, 2:20 pm ET
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Live Stream: MLB.tv
Projected Pitching Matchup: Charlie Morton (10-9, 3.62 ERA) (ATL) vs Justin Steele (12-3, 2.65 ERA) (CHI)

Charlie Morton has seen that ERA climb from 3.20 to 3.62 and that record go from 10-6 to 10-9 over his last three starts. In losses to Arizona, Boston and the Angels, he has allowed 11 earned runs on 18 hits over 15 ⅓ combined innings. Things were a little better against the Angels on Monday as he allowed just three runs, but those runs came on three solo shots. If he can’t stay off the fat part of the plate, the Cubs will make him pay as well.

Justin Steele allowed five runs (four earned) in six innings against Cincinnati on Tuesday, but the game got out of hand early in a 20-9 Cubs win, and Steele was throwing a lot of fastballs to get contact and get the game over with fewer pitches. In his three prior starts, against Boston and St. Louis (twice), he had allowed just four earned runs on 20 hits over 18 ⅓ combined innings, striking out 19 while walking five. Cubs win.

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