Two division leaders square off this weekend when the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers head south to take on the Tampa Bay Rays, who still lead the AL East by 3 ½ games despite cooling off recently. They had started 27-7 but have split their last ten games, allowing the Baltimore Orioles to creep closer. The Rays have four starting pitchers on the injured list but are managing to stay afloat. The Brewers took an 18-1 pounding from St. Louis on Monday but did bounce back to win on Tuesday…before getting blanked on Wednesday. Can the mediocre Brewers take advantage of the Rays’ pitching woes? Read our MLB betting thoughts on each game in the weekend series.
MLB Series Spotlight: Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays (May 19-21) | MLB Lines
Adrian Houser (0-0, 5.19 ERA) (MIL) vs Shane McClanahan (7-0, 2.34 ERA) (TB)
When: Friday, May 19, 6:40 pm ET
Where: Tropicana Field
Live Stream: ESPN+
Adrian Houser started the season with Triple-A Nashville on a rehab assignment after he had to leave a Cactus League game with groin tightness, an issue that also cost him some regular-season games in 2022. He didn’t make his 2023 debut until May 7, when he lasted just 4 ⅔ innings in a 7-3 loss to San Francisco. Houser pitched decently, allowing just two runs on seven hits. He only lasted four innings on Saturday, allowing three runs on eight hits, including a home run, in a 4-3 win over Kansas City. It will be interesting to see how long a leash he has on Friday in terms of pitch count.
Shane McClanahan had not allowed more than two earned runs in a game all season (and had only allowed that many three times) until Saturday, when the Yankees lit him up for four runs on five hits, including two home runs, over just four innings in a 9-8 loss. In his start before that, he spun a gem in Baltimore, scattering four hits and four walks over six innings and holding the Orioles scoreless while fanning seven in a 3-0 win. McClanahan is a key reason behind the Rays’ success this year, so I see what happened against the Yankees as an outlier. Rays to win.
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Undecided (MIL) vs Zach Eflin (5-1, 3.38 ERA) (TB)
When: Saturday, May 20, 4:10 pm ET
Where: Tropicana Field
Live Stream: FS1
Zach Eflin’s ERA was as low as 2.25 as of May 4, but in his last two outings, he has permitted eight earned runs on 14 hits over 12 innings, with his opponents hitting three home runs. The Rays’ offense bailed him out on Sunday in New York, as Tampa Bay prevailed, 8-7, but that’s not going to be sustainable. Luckily for Eflin, he will likely see a pitch-by-committee approach by the Brewers on Saturday, and he should be able to keep the fire down low enough for the Rays to eke out another high-scoring win. Rays to win.
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Freddy Peralta (4-3, 4.11 ERA) (MIL) vs Undecided (TB)
When: Sunday, May 21, 1:40 pm ET
Where: Tropicana Field
Live Stream: MLB.tv
It’s been feast or famine for Freddy Peralta; on May 8, he held the Dodgers to a run on three hits over six innings, striking out five and walking two. That mirrored the numbers he posted in some impressive April starts against the Mets and St. Louis. However, he’s also had some outings that were just as ugly as the one he posted on Monday, when the Cardinals tattooed him for six runs on six hits, including a home run, while drawing five walks in 5 ⅓ innings. Which Peralta will show up on Sunday afternoon? The Brewers’ offense has been clicking for him, and the Rays will likely use an opener and then pitch with a committee. Brewers to win.
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