Early 2018 MLB Betting Strategies, Tips and More

There are 30 teams in Major League Baseball, and there are 162 regular-season games for each team before three rounds of postseason play. In short, there are a lot of opportunities for you to pick up a lot of money over the course of one season — but you can also end up in the hole if you’re not careful. We have some strategies to help you maximize your winnings from Opening Day — while you can’t eliminate losses, you can make your profits outweigh your setbacks. Check out our MLB betting guide for the early months of the baseball season.

Early 2018 MLB Betting Strategies, Tips and More

Spring Training has begun. Opening Day is coming… pic.twitter.com/X69KbKDWQf

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) February 13, 2018

Get value from the moneyline

If you only pick favorites every time out, you’ll be surprised at how little money you actually make. Over the last five years of regular season play, the favorites have won about 57 percent of the time. However, the average moneyline in those wins was -141.8. That means that, on an average wager, you would have had to bet $141.80 to walk away with a $100 profit, or $241.80 in your pocket. The underdogs won about 42 percent of the time, with an average moneyline of +135.4. That means that if you bet $100 on one of those games (on average) you would walk away with $235.40 total ($135.40 profit). So it looks like underdogs can bring value to your betting portfolio. But obviously underdogs lose most often, so when should you pick them more frequently?

Love underdogs in the spring

In 1989, the Texas Rangers would win 10 of their first 11 games and post a 17-5 record in the month of April. They wouldn’t keep that pace up, of course, finishing at 83-79 and in fourth place in the American League West. But if you’d bet on the Rangers, who were often underdogs in that early month, you would have made a lot of money. In the months of April and May, all 30 teams are still in contention, and the teams who will sink to the bottom as the summer heats up are still playing harder — so they win more often. In the last ten season, April underdogs have won just 44.4% of the time — however, the average moneyline has been +131. But if you look at an underdog in the finale of a three-game series in which the underdog has lost the first two games, they tend to win that third game 47.2% of the time over the last ten seasons — with an average moneyline of +141.7.

Follow underdogs on the road

What about underdogs who have just lost a game? If they are on the road for their next game and are facing a team with a winning record (while having a losing record themselves), they have gone 172-179 over the last five seasons, winning at a 49% rate — with an average moneyline of +124.1. In the last three seasons, that number has cracked even, with the road dogs in that situation winning 51.9% of the time.

Keep things in the division

Thanks to the unbalanced schedule in MLB, teams play their divisional rivals more often than they play other teams in their league. Each team plays 76 games against their divisional rivals. Home teams who were favored to win a series opener against a divisional rival but lost that game and then were underdogs in the second game tend to do quite well.

Love the home cooking

Finally, look at home underdogs that are returning from a lengthy road trip (at least seven games). Over the past five seasons, teams in this situation that had gone a seven-game trip and then were underdogs at home posted a 302-331 record but offered an average moneyline of +123.09. When the road trip got to ten games, the moneyline grew to +124.8 — but the winning improved, with an 87-93 overall record in that situation. Remember — a .500 record on wagers doesn’t mean that you break even, thanks to the way moneylines work. Use the ins and outs of favorites and underdogs in the early going of the 2018 MLB season to increase your profits!