The Cleveland Guardians will need to win the American League Central again to make it to the postseason, as the wild cards this season will almost certainly come from the East and West divisions. Right now, though, the Guardians sit at 50-51; luckily, the Minnesota Twins are only three games ahead of them for the division lead. The Guardians head to Chicago to take on the White Sox for a four-game weekend set; the White Sox (41-61) are 12 ½ games out of first and have dropped seven of their last ten games. Can the Guardians take advantage and make up some ground on the Twins? Check out our MLB betting thoughts on each game.
MLB Betting Preview: Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (July 27-30)
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs Dylan Cease (CHI)
When: Thursday, July 27, 8:10 pm ET
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Live Stream: ESPN+
Projected Pitching Matchup: Tanner Bibee (6-2, 3.04 ERA) (CLE) vs Dylan Cease (4-3, 4.04 ERA) (CHI)
Tanner Bibee has had a terrific run since June 18; he has made five starts and seen his ERA drop from 4.05 to 3.04. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of those starts and has only allowed two once, a 6-5 loss in Texas on July 16. He bounced back with a gem on Saturday, scattering two hits and a walk against the Phillies, throwing seven shutout innings and striking out eight in a 1-0 win. The Guardians have won five of the last six games that Bibee has started.
Dylan Cease started the month of July with a couple of shaky started, allowing eight runs on 17 hits over 11 ⅓ innings in a loss in Oakland and an 8-7 win over St. Louis. Since then, though, he has gotten back to his dominant stuff, holding Atlanta and Minnesota to a run on three hits apiece over 11 combined innings, striking out 15 while walking five. Expect this series to start off with a pitchers’ duel, and I like the Sox to finish this at home. Chicago to win.
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Undecided (CLE) vs Lucas Giolito (CHI)
When: Friday, July 28, 7:10 pm ET
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Live Stream: Apple TV+
Projected Pitching Matchup: Undecided (CLE) vs Lucas Giolito (6-6, 3.79 ERA) (CHI)
Lucas Giolito has started four games for the Sox in July – and the team hasn’t won any of them. Three of those starts have been solid with these stat lines:
- 7/4 vs TOR 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 4 K, 2 BB (4-3 loss)
- 7/9 vs STL 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 5 K, 3 BB (4-3 loss in 10 innings)
- 7/23 at MIN 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 9 K, 3 BB (5-4 loss in 12 innings)
His July 18 start was a disaster as he gave up three home runs among six hits, permitting eight runs while striking out five and walking five in an 11-10 loss. Still, three nice starts out of four make a good month, especially when your team is 20 games below .500. Can he outpitch what looks like a bullpen combo day from the Guardians? Chicago to win.
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Logan Allen (CLE) vs Undecided (CHI)
When: Saturday, July 29, 7:10 pm ET
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Live Stream: MLB.tv
Projected Pitching Matchup: Logan Allen (4-3, 3.39 ERA) (CLE) vs Undecided (CHI)
Logan Allen was cruising along nicely this season until his second and third starts in June. He allowed 10 runs on 13 hits over nine combined innings in games the Guardians still won, but they needed 18 runs in the two games to do it. He held Oakland and Kansas City scoreless over 5 ⅔ combined innings on June 22 and 28, but his pitch counts got so high that he had to come out anyway. He went down to Triple-A after the June 28 start and returned on July 18, holding Pittsburgh scoreless on one hit and a walk over five innings, striking out eight. He only needed 84 pitches to finish seven innings against Kansas City on Monday, but he allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits, including a pair of home runs, fanning five without a walk. Given the offensive support he’s gotten and the play of the Cleveland bullpen, he should be able to get by a bullpen day by the Sox. Cleveland to win.
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Aaron Civale (CLE) vs Michael Kopech (CHI)
When: Sunday, July 30, 2:10 pm ET
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Live Stream: MLB.tv
Projected Pitching Matchup: Aaron Civale (4-2, 2.54 ERA) (CLE) vs Michael Kopech (4-9, 4.44 ERA) (CHI)
Over five starts in July, Aaron Civale has posted a 1.72 ERA. Two of those starts have come against a lowly Kansas City offense, but you can only pitch to the teams on your schedule. On Tuesday, he held the Royals to a run on five hits over eight innings, striking out five and walking two.
Michael Kopech has a 7.15 ERA for the month of July after some time on the injured list for what the team termed shoulder inflammation but may have just been a desire to give him some rest. He has blown past his career high in innings pitched and had started showing fatigue in losses to Texas and the Angels before his break. Things have not been good since he came back, as he got shelled in Atlanta upon his return for four runs on a hit and four walks over just ⅔ of an inning on July 14. He threw 5 ⅔ solid innings to pick up the win in New York six days later, but the Cubs touched him up for three home runs, scoring five runs (four earned) on nine hits in a 7-3 win on Tuesday. Cleveland to win.
Bet on the Guardians vs White Sox!
MLB Standings
AL Central: Updated July 26th
Team | W | L | % | GB | STRK | HOME | AWAY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Twins | 54 | 49 | .524 | – | L1 | 30-23 | 24-26 |
Guardians | 50 | 51 | .495 | 3.0 | W1 | 27-24 | 23-27 |
Tigers | 46 | 55 | .455 | 7.0 | L1 | 22-28 | 24-27 |
White Sox | 41 | 61 | .402 | 12.5 | L4 | 21-26 | 20-35 |
Royals | 29 | 74 | .282 | 25.0 | L1 | 15-36 | 14-38 |
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