Going into the 2024 regular season, the Houston Astros have some difficult free agency choices. Sluggers Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker and starting pitcher Framber Valdez all hit free agency in 2024 and 2025. Valdez has been a significant anchor in the starting rotation – although the disappearance of his sinker in September and the postseason last year played a major role in the Astros’ elimination in the ALCS. Assuming that he can find that pitch again, this trio is essential for the Astros to make an eighth straight ALCS. The team just signed Jose Altuve to a new deal that runs through 2029, and part of the process involved selling Altuve on the team’s plan to continue to spend at the level they will need to if they want to stay in MLB’s elite. The Astros are co-favorites with the Texas Rangers to win the American League West this season, and they are close to the Rangers and Yankees on the list of MLB betting odds to win the pennant and the World Series. Let’s take a closer look at their 2024 prospects.
MLB Houston Astros Season Rundown: World Series, Pennant and Division Odds | MLB Betting Analysis
- Odds to Win the World Series: +1000
- Odds to Win the AL Pennant: +450
- Odds to Win the AL West: +140
The Astros have three straight AL West titles in the trophy case – and have won six of the last seven, with the only exception coming in the pandemic-truncated 2020 campaign. This season saw the Astros go through several different extended slumps, including one in September. The fact that the Rangers dropped three of four in Seattle helped the Astros clinch the division on the last day of the season. The Rangers would reverse the whip, though, when they won Game 7 of the ALCS in front of Houston’s fans at Minute Maid Park. There’s no reason for pessimism in Houston, though; since the beginning of the 2015 campaign, the only team with more victories and a higher WAR is the L.A. Dodgers.
Their 90-win 2023 campaign was a bit of a dropoff, though, their lowest win total since 2016. It didn’t help that Yordan Alvarez was hurt for just about a third of the season. Their pitching fWAR was just 14th, though, even though Framber Valdez posted almost 200 innings. Justin Verlander, who came over at the trade deadline, was not particularly impressive, nor were Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown on the mound.
During the off-season, the Astros loaded up Jose Altuve’s bank account with a five-year, $125 million extension. Closer Josh Hader came to town with a five-year, $95 million deal. Since coming to the majors in 2017, Hader has been elite with his numbers, although the shortened 2020 season and the 2022 season were outliers to a slight degree. Giving so much money to a reliever isn’t the Astros’ usual pattern, but Dana Brown has come over from Atlanta as the new GM, and he did something similar with Will Smith for the Braves. Along with Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu, the setup and closer roles in Houston look pretty solid.
Catcher Victor Caratini came to town on a two-year deal as Martin Maldonado seems to be done in Houston. Caratini has a better bat than Maldonado and has enough defensive and game-calling skills to make a solid starter. The team still owes Jose Abreu approximately $40 million over the next two seasons, so he will be the first baseman, even though he’s 37 and didn’t pull his weight at the plate last year.
So how far can the Astros go? According to FanGraphs, they have a 60% chance to win the AL West. The Rangers have a starting rotation that is frankly iffy until the All-Star break, waiting for Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom to heal, but if the Rangers re-sign Jordan Montgomery, that could change. FanGraphs also gives the Astros an 11% chance to win the World Series. Both of those numbers rank third in MLB, behind the Dodgers and the Braves. The AL West will be more competitive than it has in the past, as the Rangers’ rebuild looks done, and the Mariners are a dangerous team too. It’s not as loaded a division as the AL East, though – the Angels and A’s are still a long way from contender status, and the Astros’ roster does not look quite as ironclad as it has in seasons past.
Some of this has to do with the consequences of success – their great players are sticking around, which means that contributors are getting older and approaching the end of their contracts. They now have Jose Altuve through his age-33 season. Alex Bregman is going into his age-30 season, as is Framber Valdez. Justin Verlander is almost 41, and his 2024 deal is guaranteed with a $35 million player option for 2025 that would open up if he notches at least 140 innings this season.
What this means is that the Astros’ top-shelf talent is entering a point where decline is on the horizon, if not for 2024, then not much past the end of this season. Hunter Brown and Jeremy Pena are a couple of decent young starting pitchers, but they’re not trending as future stars despite having made it to their mid-20s already. Down on the farm, the system doesn’t have any top-100 prospects that are ready to contribute later this season.
Looking at a potential World Series preview, the Astros played the Braves in April last year, sweeping a three-game set in Atlanta. The Braves started Bryce Elder, Kyle Wright and Max Fried in those games, and the starters staked the Braves to leads, but the Astros came back to win each game (6-4, 6-3, 5-2). Yordan Alvarez blasted a two-run homer off A.J. Minter to give Houston a lead in the series opener, and he got to him again in the finale, tying things up with a two-run single. The teams meet again in Houston in April, so it will be interesting to see how the changes the teams have made will influence the rematch.
Can the Astros win the AL West?
Absolutely. Barring a collapse in the starting rotation and some injuries in the batting order, Houston is still a contender. This isn’t the demolition crew that has shown up the last few seasons, but they are still one of the best of the junior circuit. They can also win a pennant – in the absence of a dominant Yankees team, this league is wide open. The AL Central doesn’t really have a standout team in 2024, and the AL East is stacked – with the exception of Boston, it wouldn’t be surprising to see any of the other four teams come away with the division crown, and the Red Sox could also finish with a winning record.
That gauntlet of division play could wear down whichever AL East teams get into the postseason, which could be an advantage for the Astros (or the Rangers). These two AL West teams were the last two standing in the league a year ago, and it is hard to imagine an ALCS much closer than what they produced.
What about a World Series title?
The Dodgers added Shohei Ohtani (who will exclusively DH this season) and two solid arms to the starting rotation. The Braves retooled. The Phillies didn’t do much besides re-sign Aaron Nola, but they had a 3-2 lead on Arizona in the NLCS. Oh, and the surprising Diamondbacks added enough talent to where they’re no longer a surprise. If the Astros win a title, it will be less because of their status as a juggernaut and more because of their ability to fight through adversity and grind out the wins.
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