Indians vs Astros ALDS Game 1 Odds & Pick

The wild card games are done in Major League Baseball, which means that it’s time to get the Division Series underway. Milwaukee and Los Angeles opened their National League Division Series with wins, and now on Friday night come the American League Division Series openers, starting with the Cleveland Indians and the Houston Astros, taking part in a matinee showdown in the Lone Star State. The Indians won the AL Central going away, and the Astros won the AL West in slightly more stressful fashion as the Oakland Athletics pushed them hard down the stretch. Take a look at our MLB odds preview before you lock in your wagers.

Indians vs Astros ALDS Game 1 Odds & Pick

The defending champs are geared up for another run. pic.twitter.com/p61fKWX4r1

— MLB Stat of the Day (@MLBStatoftheDay) October 5, 2018

When: Friday, October 5, 2018, 2:05pm ET Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston TV: TBS Radio: Westwood One Live Stream: MLB.tv MLB Odds: Cleveland +125 / Houston -135 / O/U 6.5 Projected Pitching Matchup: Corey Kluber (20-7, 2.89 ERA) (CLE) vs Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA) (HOU)

Why should you bet on the Indians?

Corey Kluber is the Indians’ ace, and he takes the hill after another strong season. He had a solid September, going 3-0 with a 3.49 ERA in five starts. However, his last start, on September 29, only lasted five innings, as he gave up three earned runs on seven hits. He faced the Astros twice this season, back on May 19 and May 25, throwing 13 ⅓ combined innings and permitting two earned runs on 13 hits, striking out 17 while walking none. He has the stuff to lock down a powerful Houston offense, and the trades that the Indians made at the deadline shored up some early bullpen issues. Cleveland’s offense ranked third in Major League Baseball with 5.05 runs per game. They hit .259 as a team and had 216 home runs while also leading the pros with 135 stolen bases. Their lineup has been tested in the postseason before and has the confidence to face an ace like Verlander. If you like the Indians, you see Kluber outdueling Verlander away from home.

Why should you put your money on the Astros?

Justin Verlander makes his first appearance against the Tribe in this series opener. His August was ugly, as he went 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA, and those three wins just came thanks to some significant run support. In September, though, he was dominant, with a 3-0 record and a 1.09 ERA. In his last three starts, he threw 19 innings combined, permitting just one earned run on seven hits while striking out 32 and walking just two. So if anyone is particularly locked in for this postseason run, it might be Verlander. Rolling to 103 wins showed that the Astros were not susceptible to the typical hangover that hits many World Series champions. They did not score as prodigiously as they did in 2017, but they still averaged 4.92 runs per game and hit .255 as a team, with 205 home runs. They also had the best defense in all of Major League Baseball with just 63 errors on the season. If you like the Astros, you remember that Cleveland is just 2-6 in their last eight postseason games, while the Astros have won 16 of their last 21 postseason games.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

This game will come down to a single mistake by one of the two starters — or a collapse by the bullpen. I don’t see Kluber or Verlander giving an inch, which means that one of the two offenses will erupt against the other’s bullpen to take the win. Given the way the Astros have played at home, not just this year but in the 2017 postseason, I’m leaning toward the Astros to take the opener. I predict a final score of Houston 3, Cleveland 1, as the Astros take the early series lead.