MLB Long Shots: A lot of the expected favorites in the 2024 MLB season have gotten out of the gate well. One exception includes the Houston Astros, who stumbled out to a 6-14 start and still have four of their key starting pitchers on the injured list. Teams like the Dodgers and the Yankees have gotten off to the strong starts we expected, but there have been some pleasant surprises so far as well. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have gotten to strong starts in the NL Central, and Kansas City and Detroit have done likewise in the AL Central.
Can They Defy the Odds? A Look at the MLB Long Shots Who Could Win the World Series
Chicago Cubs
The starting pitching is still a work in progress as the Cubs are just 27th in MLB in innings from starters through 22 games (102). Kyle Hendricks is a starter that is giving the Cubs a lot of concern. Between 2014 and 2020, he had a combined 3.12 ERA, and FanGraphs ranked him the 15th most valuable pitcher during that time. Over his first three starts in 2024, he posted a combined 12.08 ERA, with walk, home run and hit rates at the highest of his career, and now he is on the injured list, along with Jameson Taillon and Justin Steele. Cade Horton is ready to come up from the minors and join the rotation, and if the Cubs can figure out the pitching issues, they could take off. Michael Busch and Alexander Canario are a pair of rookies doing some damage at the plate, and an offensive burst would make life even easier for the pitching staff.
MLB Championship Lines: Cubs to Win
Cincinnati Reds
With a 12-9 start, the Reds aren’t buried yet and remain in contention for that NL Central title we’ve predicted for them this season. They did get swept by Seattle last week but bounced back to deliver a sweep over the weekend, anchored by a terrific start from lefty Nick Lodolo on Friday. The lefty has returned after almost a full year on the injured list and has a 16:1 K:BB ratio over 12 innings in his first two combined starts, allowing eight hits and just one earned run. Also, Spencer Steer earned a Silver Slugger with the Reds in 2023, leading his club in doubles (37), home runs (23) and RBI (86). He posted an .820 OPS and swiped 15 bases. Now, he might just be the team’s best hitter. The Reds have lost Noelvi Marte to suspension and both T.J. Friedl and Matt McLain to injury, but Steer continues to surprise after a three-year stint in the minors in which he hit just a combined .268. So far in 2024, though, he was hitting .372 going into the weekend with three home runs and 15 RBI. He leads MLB in RBI and is near the top in batting average (.372) and slugging percentage (.721). He’s feasting on sinkers and four-seamers and spraying the ball to all fields. Elly De La Cruz also has a slugging percentage over .700, making the Reds just one of two teams that has multiple hitters slugging that well, along with the Dodgers.
MLB Championship Lines: Reds to Win
Boston Red Sox
Why did the Sox finish dead last in the AL East last year? Their pitching was a major problem. This year, though, their starting rotation has been shockingly solid. Over their first 119 ⅓ innings, the starters have posted a combined 1.73 ERA, the best of any starting staff in MLB. Kutter Crawford (0.66 ERA, 27.1 IP in five starts), Brayan Bello (3.04 ERA, 26.2 IP in five starts) and Tanner Houck (1.35 ERA, 26.2 IP in four starts) are leading the way so far. This is a major improvement from the 2022 and 2023 seasons, when Boston pitchers permitted 1,563 runs combined. The next-worst pitching staff in their division was Baltimore (1,366). In the off-season, the Sox let James Paxton go and traded John Schreiber and Chris Sale away. They did add Liam Hendriks and Lucas Giolito, but Hendriks went down early in the season and is likely done for 2024, and Giolito didn’t even make it out of spring training before heading to the shelf for the year. The team has allowed 54 runs total, but 19 were unearned. Closer Kenley Jansen has not yet permitted a hit, and Justin Slaten has permitted just one hit in 7 ⅔ innings.
MLB Championship Lines: Red Sox to Win
MLB Long Shots
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