MLB Game: Braves at Red Sox Betting Preview & Pick

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The Atlanta Braves have won six of their last ten to move three games ahead of both Philadelphia and Miami in the National League East, and now they head to Boston for a series with the Red Sox that begins on Monday night. Boston came into 2020 with real trouble as far as their starting pitching, and that trouble has turned into a 12-22 nightmare, with the Red Sox 11 ½ games behind Tampa Bay. The Red Sox have turned into sellers ahead of the trade deadline, while the Braves are looking from within to improve their overall pitching.

Let’s take a look at your best MLB betting pick for the second game of this series.

MLB Betting: (September 1)
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox Preview

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Why should you Bet on Atlanta?

Ian Anderson made his 2020 debut during a doubleheader against the New York Yankees on August 26. He showed sparkling stuff, striking out six and walking two over six innings, and the only hit he permitted was a solo shot in a game the Braves would win, 5-1. What made his win even more impressive is that the game brought an end to New York ace Gerrit Cole’s 20-game winning streak as a starting pitcher. Ronald Acuna Jr returned to the lineup for the Braves and started the game with a 473-foot blast off Cole. It was the longest home run in Acuna’s career and the longest home run by any Atlanta hitter in the history of Truist Park, which is now in its fourth season.

Another interesting fact about Anderson is that, when he picked up that win in his debut, he became the only Braves starter other than Max Fried (who leads the NL with a 1.35 ERA) who had a victory. The other victories have come from the bullpen. Having a second strong starter would help the Braves — who already lead the National League East by three games.

Why should you Put your Money on the Red Sox?

The Red Sox have struggled on the mound this year. Their only quality starter with any consistency has been Nathan Eovaldi; as a team, the pitching staff ERA is a combined 6.05, dead last in MLB. Eovaldi is rumored to be headed to Texas in exchange for second baseman Rougned Odor. First baseman Mitch Moreland has been a bright spot on offense. He leads Boston in fWAR (1.1) — which is Fangraphs’ WAR. He has eight home runs and 21 RBI while hitting .350. Of course, the Red Sox shipped him to San Diego to help the surging Padres.

So what we have in Boston is a team that is already in “sell” mode as the franchise hits the halfway point of this shortened 2020 season. Given that they are still waiting to name a starter for Tuesday’s game, this could reflect some uncertainty based on upcoming moves with today’s 4pm ET trade deadline, but the Red Sox have been shuffling starters all year long. They came in a bit shorthanded and then lost Collin McHugh to the COVID-19 opt-out.

Final Score and Prediction

Given how well Anderson pitched in his debut, and given the chaos going on with the Boston roster due to their trade activity, it’s hard to see the Red Sox winning this one. There are times when a pitcher comes up from the minors, dominates his debut and then gets shelled a bit once teams get film of his technique. Even if Boston can do more damage than the Yankees could against Anderson, the Braves have the bats to outscore them. I predict a final score of Atlanta 7, Boston 4.

Braves vs Red Sox | Standings