The MLB National League Central Division has been part of Major League Baseball since 1994, when the league realigned from four divisions to six. Its original teams were the Cincinnati Reds, the Houston Astros, the Chicago Cubs, the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the St. Louis Cardinals. When the Milwaukee Brewers moved from the American League to the National League, the division had six teams, making it the largest division. In 2013, the Astros shifted to the American League West. The Cardinals have won 12 of the 26 division titles. The Cubs have won six titles, the Brewers have won four, and th eReds have won three. The Astros won four titles before heading to the junior circuit, leaving the Pirates without any titles. Looking to 2024, this looks like a wide-open division that any of the top four teams on the MLB betting odds list could win, but with the Pirates once again as heavy underdogs. Let’s break down each team’s chances.
MLB National League Central Betting Analysis for 2024 Season
Odds to Win the NL Central
- St. Louis Cardinals +167
- Chicago Cubs +202
- Cincinnati Reds +360
- Milwaukee Brewers +660
- Pittsburgh Pirates +1700
Pittsburgh Pirates
Let’s start with a quick look at Pittsburgh. There are three solid players in their lineup – shortstop Oneil Cruz, third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, and outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Center fielder Jack Suwinski also has promise, both with his glove and his bat. However, Endy Rodriguez, slotted to start at catcher, tore his UCL during winter ball and will miss the 2024 season. This is a young team with talent and potential, but they still lack depth.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds lost the leadership of Joey Votto, but the youth movement, led by Elly De La Cruz, almost pushed this team into the playoffs, but they just missed out on a wild-card berth. They have six different players who could play shortstop (De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte, and Jonathan India), and they added Jeimer Candelario, who is also a middle infielder. Their corner outfield and DH slots could use a boost, but if this team starts 2024 where it finished 2023, a division title is more than possible.
Reds Lines to Win National League
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have developed a reputation for, at best, parsimony on offense. However, in 2023, they were just 8% worse than the average offense, primarily due to their .385 team slugging percentage. Mark Canha and Carlos Santana left via free agency. Christian Yelich is likely headed back down to his averages on offense, but the team did add Gary Sanchez and Rhys Hoskins to the batting order. Shortstop Willy Adames is projected to be their top player with a 4.1 anticipated WAR. Such youngsters as Bryce Turang, Sal Frelick and Jackson Chourio are being relied on to contribute significantly. Frelick had an .840 OPS in July (36 plate appearances) but that dropped to .615 for September and October. Chourio inked an eight-year, $82 million deal but still has to show that he can produce in the majors like he did in the minors. They still need a terrific pitching season – without Corbin Burnes.
Brewers Lines to Win National League
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs brought Craig Counsell down from Milwaukee to manage, and they re-signed Cody Bellinger. Their infield duo (Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson) is also impressive – and first baseman Michael Busch is also an improvement. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki will make contributions in the outfield, with center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong adding defensive speed and a big arm. This is a team that, with the right leadership, should get to the postseason and could win this division.
Cubs Lines to Win National League
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals still have Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Willson Contreras ready to rake in their batting order. Masyn Winn will take over the shortstop position, and Nolan Gorman brings power to the plate. Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan get on base reliably, which will create opportunities for the big bats. The team regressed on defense in 2023 but should improve back toward the mean this year.
Cardinals Lines to Win National League
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