The New York Mets have gotten off to a 12-10 start this season, even though this is the first season in while when they didn’t plunk down a ton of cash in the off-season. Their biggest acquisitions from recent off-seasons, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, are pitching in Houston and Texas, respectively. New president of baseball operations David Stearns has been brought in to help the Mets not just win big but to do so consistently. He has worked to add depth, a strategy that Stearns followed to bring the Milwaukee Brewers their longest run of continued success. During this off-season, they made some additions, such as Luis Severino and Sean Manaea to the rotation, and Jake Diekman to the bullpen. However, those deals were done to fill some roster holes and add depth without bringing in the sort of contracts that will harm flexibility down the line. The Mets did make runs at Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, both of whom ended up extracting over a billion dollars in their combined deals with the Dodgers. Will Stearns’ approach pay off for the Mets this year? Maybe not, but a stable Mets franchise is something that fans have longed to see. Don’t miss the updated MLB Odds for each NL team to win the pennant and go to the World Series, as well as insights about some of the top teams.
Decoding the NL Pennant Race: A Deep Dive into Expert Odds Analysis | MLB Odds
- L.A. Dodgers +160
- Atlanta Braves +220
- Philadelphia Phillies +600
- Chicago Cubs +1400
- St. Louis Cardinals +1600
- Arizona Diamondbacks +1600
- San Diego Padres +1700
- Cincinnati Reds +2500
- Milwaukee Brewers +2800
- N.Y. Mets +3000
- San Francisco Giants +3300
- Pittsburgh Pirates +3500
- Miami Marlins +12500
- Washington Nationals +12500
- Colorado Rockies +20000
MLB Odds to Bet on the National League Lines Today
Atlanta Braves
The Braves played six games against the top two teams in the American League West, at least in terms of projected finish, and they swept the Astros down in Houston and took the first two games in a three-game set at home against Texas. Their lineup has a combined .828 OPS, tops in MLB, and they score 6.25 runs per game. That bruising offense has allowed the team to overlook the starting rotation, which has posted an unsightly 4.85 ERA thus far, good for 25th in MLB. Second baseman Ozzie Albies’ fractured toe means that Luis Guillorme will start for the time being. Albies’ bat is much louder than his replacement’s, but Guillorme can more than hold his own there defensively.
MLB Daily Lines: Braves to win
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers dropped two of three at home to the San Diego Padres before heading to St. Louis and sweeping the Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Milwaukee’s offense has started 2024 red-hot, with the second-best batting average in MLB (.275) and the second-best OPS (.789), putting up 5.7 runs per game. D.L. Hall is headed to the injured list, which will strain the starting rotation as it adds Bryse Wilson.
MLB Daily Lines: Brewers to win
L.A. Dodgers
The Dodgers dropped four of six against NL East foes at home last week, losing two of three to the Nationals and two of three to the Mets. They have dropped seven of ten overall as the pitching staff is working through a host of injuries. Shohei Ohtani hit his 176th home run, setting the MLB record for long balls by a Japanese-born slugger, eclipsing Hideki Matsui’s mark, in Sunday’s 10-0 win over the Mets. Ohtani went 10 for 21 at the plate last week, but his bat can’t carry the team past its pitching woes right now.
MLB Daily Lines: Dodgers to win
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have won eight in a row including sweeps of the Colorado Rockies and the Chicago White Sox last week. To be fair, those are two of the worst teams in MLB right now, but you have to take advantage of easy portions of the schedule, and the Phillies are doing it. In their first 22 games, they got 13 quality starts from their starting pitchers (at least six innings pitched with no more than three earned runs permitted). That’s good, because their bullpen has a combined ERA of 5.78, the worst mark for any team’s relievers so far. Bryce Harper drove in the 900th run of his career last week, so the offense is cooking also.
MLB Daily Lines: Phillies to win
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2024 NL Pennant Crown after Week 2
Injuries are already having an impact on would-be contenders in both the National and American Leagues. In the senior circuit, San Diego lost their ace, Yu Darvish, to the 15-day injured list with neck tightness. Darvish started Opening Day but hasn’t pitched since Sunday, when he permitted three runs on four hits over five innings against the L.A. Dodgers, taking the no-decision. The 37-year-old hurler has been to five All-Star games but it 0-1 with a 4.18 ERA over five starts in 2024. His career stats include a 103-86 record with a 3.60 ERA and 1,951 strikeouts over 271 starts with Texas, the Dodgers, the Cubs and San Diego. The Atlanta Braves have also lost a key player as second baseman Ozzie Albies went to the 10-day injured list on Tuesday after an errant pitch ended up fracturing the big toe on his right foot. Houston Astros rookie Spencer Arrighetti plunked him in the second inning of Monday’s game, and while Albies stayed in the game, which Atlanta won, 6-1, he now has to rehab it. Manager Brian Snitker said that Albies won’t need surgery, but he doesn’t have a timetable for his return. Albies has appeared in three All-Star games and is off to a solid start in 2024, hitting .317 with a pair of home runs in 15 games. Let’s take a look at each National League team’s sports betting odds to win the pennant at this point. If you think the Dodgers or Braves are locks, remember that Arizona had MLB odds as high as +5000 to win the pennant at one point last season and ended up rolling all the way to the World Series. After the MLB Odds list, check out our thoughts on some of the contenders.
NL Pennant Race Wide Open: Who Will Win the National League Pennant after Two Weeks? | MLB Odds
- Los Angeles Dodgers +160
- Atlanta Braves +220
- Philadelphia Phillies +700
- Chicago Cubs +1400
- St. Louis Cardinals +1600
- Arizona Diamondbacks +1600
- San Francisco Giants +2000
- Cincinnati Reds +2500
- Milwaukee Brewers +2800
- San Diego Padres +3000
- New York Mets +3000
- Pittsburgh Pirates +3500
- Washington Nationals +12500
- Miami Marlins +12500
- Colorado Rockies +20000
MLB Odds to Bet on the National League Lines Today
Atlanta Braves
The Braves did get some good news on Wednesday as Ronald Acuna Jr hit a home run on Wednesday in the Braves’ extra-inning victory over Houston. He had not hit a home run in any of the team’s first 16 games; in 2023, the longest he went without a long ball was 14 games. His strikeout rate is around 24%, about where it was for the 2022 season. In 2023, it dropped to 11.4%, and he won an MVP. Marcell Ozuna leads the team in RBIs, and the momentum of winning three in a row in Houston just has the Braves cruising right now.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are just one more team dealing with injuries to their starting rotation. Bobby Miller is already on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, and shoulders are almost always tricky joints to rehab. Emmet Sheehan has been fighting forearm swelling since the early days of spring training. The rotation also has some other injury-prone arms, including Walker Buehler, James Paxton, Tyler Glasnow, and Clayton Kershaw. So if you’re thinking about sinking some of your betting bucks into a Dodgers’ pennant run, you might give it a few more weeks.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies got the second career complete game out of Ranger Suarez on Tuesday, as he blanked the Rockies to improve his record to 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA through four starts. MLB has only featured two complete games this season, Suarez’s effort and Ronel Blanco’s no-hitter. It was only the fourth shutout since the 2018 campaign in which the starting pitcher permitted seven or more hits. This tells you how the game has changed over the last 50 years; in 1972, there were 60 shutouts in which the starter permitted that many hits. Pitch counts are shrinking and so are the leashes attached to starting pitchers. Suarez is throwing his sinker 38.5% of the time, although he’s not throwing it as hard, and the changes are working as hitters have just a .174 average against it. When they swing at his four-seamer and change-up, batters are 0 for 24.
Chicago Cubs
Fans of the Cubs are raving about Michael Busch, as the rookie first baseman hit home runs in five straight games to tie an MLB record. He came over from the Dodgers in the winter and already has a keen eye for the strike zone. He isn’t swinging at bad pitches but is still maintaining the sort of power the Cubs will need. If you remember how well Anthony Rizzo managed the strike zone for the Cubs, then you know how well Busch is managing his at-bats.
Milwaukee Brewers
Did the Brewers send Christian Yelich to the injured list again? Of course they did. His back is acting up again, and he doesn’t have a timetable for a return. The Brewers have gone 1-3 since Yelich went on the shelf; in those three losses, they scored a combined eight losses. Yelich had a mammoth 217 OPS+ to start 2024, and the rest of the lineup isn’t the sort to absorb that loss easily.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks got a lot of positive press in the off-season. We saw just how great the duo of Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen were atop their starting rotation, and then the Diamondbacks went and made some major acquisitions to double down on their sudden contender status in the National League. Gallen and Kelly have held their own so far, posting a combined 1.93 ERA through their first four combined starts. Christian Walker and Ketel Marte went into Wednesday’s action hitting a combined .291 with eight home runs, and the team has won five wins in seven games – but they’re still under .500.
San Diego Padres
The Padres lost Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and Blake Snell in the off-season, but one observation that baseball experts have made is that the team might be better in terms of personality and scrappiness. We saw this over the weekend when they went up to Chavez Ravine and won two of three against the Dodgers. They have five wins in their last seven games, and the whole lineup has been chipping in behind Fernando Tatis Jr.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are struggling when it comes to pitching. Both of their back-end relievers, David Bednar and Aroldis Chapman, have had a hard time getting outs. Chapman has walked six batters in 5 ⅔ innings and has a 1.41 WHIP. Bednar’s ERA is 13.50, and he’s been getting booed by a fan base at home that is much more patient than the other Pennsylvania city’s fans are. The rest of the team has played well, which is why the Pirates are 11-8, but without a solid bullpen it’s hard to get to the playoffs, let alone advance.
Cincinnati Reds
We still like the Reds to win the National League Central, but their 9-9 start shows that this young team still has some things to figure out. One bright spot has been the return of Nick Lodolo, who threw 5 ⅔ innings of shutout baseball when he made his season debut against the Chicago White Sox, striking out 10 while scattering one hit and one walk. He missed most of 2023 with a left tibia ailment, but his stuff reminded viewers of his 2022 campaign, when he came in sixth in balloting for NL Rookie of the Year.
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