MLB Opening Day: Last-Minute Betting Analysis before 2024 Season begins

The first competitive games of the 2024 MLB regular season are set for March 20 and 21, when the L.A. Dodgers and the San Diego Padres meet in Korea for the Seoul Series. On Thursday, March 28, all 30 MLB teams will meet on MLB Opening Day. The Seoul Series is the first of several international matchups set for 2024. The Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox already took part in the Dominican Republic Series during spring training. The Houston Astros meet the Colorado Rockies for the Mexico City Series on April 27 and 28, and the N.Y. Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies renew the London Series tradition on June 8 and 9. Let’s break down the schedule for Opening Day as you start to plan your MLB betting strategy for the coming season.

2024 MLB Opening Day: Betting Analysis for all Games, Thursday, March 28

• Milwaukee Brewers at N.Y. Mets (1:10 pm ET)
• L.A. Angels at Baltimore Orioles (3:05 pm ET)
• Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (3:05 pm ET)
• Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (4:10 pm ET)
• Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (4:10 pm ET)
• N.Y. Yankees at Houston Astros (4:10 pm ET)
• Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins (4:10 pm ET)
• San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres (4:10 pm ET)
• St. Louis Cardinals at L.A. Dodgers (4:10 pm ET)
• Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 pm ET)
• Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds (4:10 pm ET)
• Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers (7:35 pm ET, ESPN)
• Cleveland Guardians at Oakland A’s (10:07 pm ET)
• Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners (10:10 pm ET)
• Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 pm ET)

Dodgers and Braves

They have resumed their spots at the top of the odds lists to win their respective divisions, vie for the pennant and win the World Series. Given that these are the only two teams with at least 100 wins in the past two seasons, this makes sense. However, this regular-season prowess has not translated into postseason success, as neither team has even advanced to the NL Championship Series the past two seasons. The Braves have been ousted by a wild-card team from their own division – the Philadelphia Phillies – in the past two postseasons.

Other teams at the top include the Houston Astros, the New York Yankees, and the Baltimore Orioles. The Astros have played in seven straight AL Championship Series, and they did extend Jose Altuve for the rest of the 2020s. However, questions about Framber Valdez’s effectiveness and Justin Verlander’s health make the Astros look a bit more vulnerable. The Orioles are forecast to drop an average 12.9 victories from their 101 in 2023, depending on which betting site you consult. Given that the team added a legitimate ace pitcher in Corbin Burnes in the off-season, this prediction is interesting. Some of this may have had to do with the predicted rise of one of the Orioles’ competitors in the AL East – the Yankees. They did add Juan Soto and have Aaron Judge back and healthy, at least for now. But can the Yankees climb past the Orioles, the Rays and the Blue Jays to rule the East once again? Quite a few sports betting sites have the Yankees picked as the likeliest non-playoff team from last year to get back into the postseason this time around, but the Orioles will fight them for the division title, and the AL West might have two wild-card teams in addition to their division champ in the playoffs.

National League

In the National League, the team predicted to make the biggest jump from 2023 is the St. Louis Cardinals. Their utter collapse down the stretch, particularly on defense, would be difficult to repeat. FanDuel has Cardinals slotted at #3 in highest over/under win total for 2024. Given the improvements that the Cubs and the Reds have made, that seems a little optimistic.

One team predicted to head down the ladder in the National League is the San Diego Padres. This team knocked the Dodgers out in the 2022 NL Division Series before falling to Philadephia in the NLCS, but that monster roster is getting dismantled. Closer Josh Hader is now in Houston. Starting pitcher Blake Snell, the one-time Cy Young winner, is an unsigned free agent that the Padres don’t seem interested in pursuing. The Dodgers are projected to win over 100 games again after adding Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but it would be unwise to overlook the off-season additions that the Arizona Diamondbacks made after rolling all the way to the World Series last year. Seeing them approach 88 wins and make another postseason run is not beyond the realm of possibility.

Chicago Cubs

Chicago brought in Craig Counsell at manager, and they resigned Cody Bellinger. It’s hard to see them remaining mired in mediocrity; while the Cardinals will play better simply by reverting to their expected mean at the plate and on defense, the Brewers no longer have Burnes or their stabilizing manager as Counsell headed down the highway to manage at Wrigley. The Boston Red Sox haven’t made many helpful additions in the offseason either, and their spot at the bottom of the AL East seems theirs again, even though their performance would have them looking at a possible wild-card berth if they didn’t have four excellent teams ahead of them in that gauntlet of a division.

The list of unsigned free agents contains names that could still tilt the balance in a number of races. Starting pitchers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, both just 31 years old, remain available. Snell is a former Cy Young winner, but the fact that he maxes out at 5 or 6 innings at this point makes him less valuable than he might be if he could eat seven innings and hand the game to the setup man on a regular basis. Montgomery helped the Texas Rangers get their first World Series title. The word is that Montgomery wants to go back to Texas and is waiting for the Rangers to get their financial picture set in terms of their media rights deal before signing, but it’s hard to imagine him waiting indefinitely. Julio Urias, just 27 years old, is also still unsigned. Zack Greinke, who is now 40 years old, may be on the outside looking in, and the same goes for Rich Hill, who is 44. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger are in their early 30s and could make nice back-end starters, if they’re willing to take back-end money.

Center fielders Michael A. Taylor and Adam Duvall are still out there for the taking. They both have WAR (wins above replacement) figures right around 3, which is higher than the 2.5 figure assigned to Aaron Hicks (2.5), who is a year older than Taylor. It will be interesting to see where they end up. Designated hitter J.D. Martinez is 36 years old but still offers a 3.1 WAR, significantly higher than the 2.0 number posted by 38-year-old Matt Carpenter, who signed a 1-year deal with the Cardinals. Carpenter has a history in St. Louis, but Martinez has produced in multiple cities and also should land somewhere.

Obviously, Opening Day is an exciting day for fans, but from a sports betting perspective, it’s important to remember that your pitchers are still working their way into the season. Only one pitcher has ever thrown a no-hitter on Opening Day, and that came all the way back in 1940 when Bob Feller did it for the Cleveland Indians. Expect the hitters to be a little ahead of the pitchers in the early going, which means that taking some overs can be the right pick. In a season with 162 games, there is a lot more significance for the game in the stands than there is on the field, so pay a lot more attention to who is pitching when you make your picks than anything else. Check their spring numbers and use those to help you decide which side to take.