The L.A. Dodgers welcome the San Diego Padres for a three-game series in Chavez Ravine that will have major implications for the National League West race. The Dodgers (23-15) currently lead the West by 2 ½ games over the Arizona Diamondbacks, with the Padres (19-18) in third place, a game back of Arizona. The Dodgers have won eight of their last ten and have a +48 run differential on the season, while the Padres’ run differential is dead even. Let’s break down each of the three matchups as you consider your MLB betting for the weekend.
MLB Series Spotlight: San Diego Padres at L.A. Dodgers (May 12-14) | MLB Lines
Blake Snell (1-5, 4.89 ERA) (SD) vs Dustin May (4-1, 2.68 ERA) (LA)
When: Friday, May 12 at 10:10 pm ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Live Stream: MLB Network
I doubt that the Padres thought they were getting something between mediocrity and fifth-starter numbers when they brought in Blake Snell, but that’s what he’s delivered so far in 2023. He hasn’t been that bad – he hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in a start since April 6 – but he’s not showing durability, as he has finished six innings just twice this year. Those two games have been his last two starts, including a six-inning start against the Dodgers last Saturday, when he only allowed one hit, a two-run dinger that also scored a runner he’d walked in a hard-luck 2-1 loss. Can he turn things around on Friday night?
May takes on Snell for the second start in a row; on Saturday, he scattered three hits and a walk over six scoreless innings, striking out six. That was his first scoreless outing since March 31; many of his starts have been similar to Snell’s (five or six innings, two or three earned runs), but May has been a little better, and he’s also gotten more help from his offense. Dodgers to win.
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Joe Musgrove (1-0, 6.75 ERA) (SD) vs Julio Urias (4-3, 3.77 ERA) (LA)
When: Saturday, May 13 at 7:15 pm ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Live Stream: FOX
Joe Musgrove didn’t make his first start until April 22, and it took him a bit to find his footing. He went five innings in his season debut, giving up three runs on seven hits while striking out six without a walk in a 5-3 win over Arizona. He followed that up by getting shelled by the Giants, giving up seven runs on six hits, including three home runs, over 3 ⅓ innings in a game the Padres would roar back to win, 16-11. He started on Sunday against the Dodgers and threw five sparkling innings, allowing one earned run on two hits, striking out five and walking three in a game the Padres’ bullpen would cough up in 5-2 fashion in ten innings.
Julio Urias got shelled in his last two April starts, giving up 11 runs on 14 hits, including four home runs, over nine combined innings in losses to the Cubs and Pirates. However, his May has been much better. In starts against Philadelphia and San Diego, he has thrown 12 ⅔ innings, allowing three runs on nine hits, striking out 13 while walking just two. As rocky as the Padres’ bullpen has been, Urias should be able to guide the team to a better position before he leaves. Dodgers to win.
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Michael Wacha (3-1, 4.82 ERA) (SD) vs Tony Gonsolin (0-1, 1.93 ERA) (LA)
When: Sunday, May 14 at 4:10 pm ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Live Stream: MLB.tv
Michael acha has pitched much more effectively since the calendar turned to May. In two starts against Cincinnati and Minnesota, he has thrown 12 combined innings, allowing just one earned run on five hits, striking out seven while walking five. The bullpen coughed up the game against Cincinnati, a 2-1 loss in ten innings, but the Padres’ offense staked him to a 6-1 win over the Twins.
Tony Gonsolin’s ERA is a bit misleading, as he gave up three runs on three hits in Milwaukee on Monday, but some defensive miscues made those runs earned, even though he yielded a home run in the game. At Dodger Stadium, his ERA is 5.79, but he has only started once at home this season among three starts overall. Padres to win.
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