The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets both earned wild-card berths in the Major League Baseball playoffs last season, but right now, they are both trying to find a way to deliver winning records. The Mets (27-27) are in third place in the National League East, 5 ½ games behind Atlanta (and a game behind Miami, of all teams). The Phillies (25-28) are in fourth place, seven games back of the Braves. The Phillies head to New York this week in a series that both teams hope to use to build momentum heading into the month of June. Check out our MLB betting preview for each game in the series.
MLB Series Spotlight: Philadelphia Phillies at N.Y. Mets (May 30 – June 1) | MLB Lines
Ranger Suarez (0-1, 9.82 ERA) (PHI) vs Kodai Senga (4-3, 3.94 ERA) (NY)
When: Tuesday, May 30, 7:10 pm ET
Where: Citi Field
Live Stream: TBS
Ranger Suarez made his 2023 debut on May 13, and he gave up three runs on seven hits over four innings in a 7-4 win in Colorado. His numbers have not improved since then; in two starts against the Cubs and the Diamondbacks, he has thrown just seven combined innings, permitting nine runs on ten hits while striking out nine and walking four. The Phillies beat the Diamondbacks in his last start, on May 24, but they had to come back and win, 6-5, in extra innings. Suarez is finding way too much of the plate right now.
Kodai Senga also finds a lot of the plate, but he has also posted five starts in which he permitted two or fewer earned runs. In his last start, he gave up three runs on six hits over five innings against the Cubs, but in his previous start, he fanned 12 Rays, allowing just one hit on three runs and three walks. So he has the stuff to make the Phillies swing and miss, and given how hittable Suarez has been, I think Senga can get the win. Mets to win, take the over.
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Aaron Nola (4-3, 4.59 ERA) (PHI) vs Carlos Carrasco (1-2, 6.75 ERA) (NY)
When: Wednesday, May 31, 7:10 pm ET
Where: Citi Field
Live Stream: MLB Network, MLB.tv
Aaron Nola has allowed at least three earned runs in seven of his ten starts this year, and he allowed four or more in three of five starts in May. His strikeout numbers are respectable – 10 in seven innings against the Cubs and seven in six innings against the Braves in his last start – but he has permitted home runs in seven straight starts, including three alone in that game against the Braves, when he gave up five runs on eight hits, striking out seven and walking two.
Carlos Carrasco went on the injured list after his first three starts of the season, in which he posted an unsightly 8.56 ERA that benefited from having one of those stars come against the moribund Oakland offense. He returned on May 19 and struggled again, allowing five runs on five hits over five innings in a game the Mets would win, 10-9, in extra innings. His last start, in Chicago on Thursday, was much better, as he allowed a run on five hits (including a solo shot), striking out four while walking two to get his first win of the season. Mets to win.
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Taijuan Walker (4-2, 5.57 ERA) (PHI) vs Max Scherzer (4-2, 3.54 ERA) (NY)
When:Thursday, June 1, 1:10 pm ET
Where: Citi Field
Live Stream: MLB Network, MLB.tv
Taijuan Walker’s numbers are slowly improving, as he has only allowed more than three earned runs in a game once since May 1. In his last start, he allowed three runs on ten hits over 6 ⅔ innings in a 6-4 win over the Atlanta Braves on Friday. In his previous start, he held the Cubs scoreless over 5 ⅓ innings, scattering a pair of hits and three walks while striking out three. Can he keep the ball down in New York?
On April 4, Max Scherzer’s ERA sat at 6.35 after a five-run outing in Milwaukee that led to a 9-0 rout at the hands of the Brewers. By April 19, that had dropped to 3.72 after eight innings of shutout ball against the Padres and the Dodgers. His scoreless outing in Los Angeles ended after three innings, after Scherzer was ejected for a controversial finding of stickiness on his fingers. He served a one-game suspension and then got lit up by the Tigers for six runs on eight hits over 3 ⅓ innings, sending his ERA back up to 5.56. Since then, though, he has allowed just two earned runs on 11 hits, striking out 19 while walking just three over 20 combined innings. His ERA is now just 3.54, and the team won all three of those starts (and he got the decision in two of them). It looks like ace-level Max is back. Mets to win, take the under.
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