One of the most interesting MLB futures wagers involves picking the pitcher who will win the most games in an upcoming season. This puts a lot of your sports betting ingenuity to the test, because there are a number of factors to consider. Is your pitcher on a team that will win a lot of games? Does your favored pitcher go deep into games? Nowadays, managers are pulling starters quickly, even in the fifth inning with a lead (meaning that the starter won’t get the win for that game, because you have to go five innings to get a win). What is the bullpen on the team like? If you pitch six innings and exit with a lead, but the bullpen lets the other team come back to tie or go ahead, even if your team rallies for the win, you don’t get the victory as a pitcher. We have a list of win total leaders from prior seasons as well as thoughts on some of this season’s contenders. Let’s check the Pitcher with the Most Wins Odds.
MLB: Pitcher to Win the Most Regular Season Games
MLB Win Leaders Dating Back to 2010
| Year | Team | Wins Leader | Wins | Prior Year Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Houston | Justin Verlander | 21 | 16 |
| 2018 | Tampa Bay | Blake Snell | 21 | 5 |
| 2017 | Kansas City | Jason Vargas | 18 | 5 |
| 2017 | Cleveland | Carlos Carrasco | 18 | 11 |
| 2017 | Cleveland | Corey Kluber | 18 | 18 |
| 2017 | L.A. Dodgers | Clayton Kershaw | 18 | 12 |
| 2016 | Boston | Rick Porcello | 22 | 9 |
| 2015 | Chicago Cubs | Jake Arrieta | 22 | 10 |
| 2014 | L.A. Dodgers | Clayton Kershaw | 21 | 16 |
| 2013 | Detroit | Max Scherzer | 21 | 16 |
| 2012 | Washington | Gio Gonzalez | 21 | 16 |
| 2011 | Detroit | Justin Verlander | 24 | 18 |
| 2010 | N.Y. Yankees | C.C. Sabathia | 21 | 19 |
| 2010 | Philadelphia | Roy Halladay | 21 | 17 |
| 2009 | N.Y. Yankees | C.C. Sabathia | 19 | 17 |
| 2009 | St. Louis | Adam Wainwright | 19 | 11 |
| 2009 | Seattle | Felix Hernandez | 19 | 9 |
There are a couple of lessons we can draw from this list. The overwhelming majority of pitchers on this list were on contenders, with Jason Vargas (on a third-place Kansas City team) as an outlier. Last year, Houston was projected to win 96.5 games and ended up winning 107 of them. Verlander had 21 of those wins himself, followed by Gerrit Cole with 20.
You shouldn’t necessarily overlook pitchers who had a poor season the year before. Note how many pitchers went from single digits in wins the year before to lead the sport. However, pitchers who win one year often have a hard time going back to back. The last time a player finished first in consecutive years came ten years ago, when C.C. Sabathia finished in a tie in 2009 and 2010. Plus, Verlander had a groin injury to rehab in the offseason, and at his age that is a difficult rehab for a starting pitcher, so he may have a slow start to 2020.
Gerrit Cole is someone to consider, with 20 wins in 2019, 15 wins in 2018 and 12 wins in 2017. He comes into the Yankees’ rotation as the undisputed ace and should get plenty of run support from the offense. However, Cole has never been the ace on a staff before, especially not in a town that puts a lot of pressure on its baseball team. In 2017, he was pitching with Pittsburgh, and then his last two seasons came in Houston, a city that loves its Astros but is a football-first city. New York brings intense pressure, and it will be interesting to see how he responds.
Walker Buehler is still emerging from Clayton Kershaw’s shadow in Los Angeles. As a rookie, he went 8-5 in 23 starts in 2018 and then posted a 14-4 record in 30 starts a year ago. He is now the #2 starter in Chavez Ravine as Hyun-Jin Ryu has left for Toronto. The Dodgers have a 98.5 win total on a lot of sports books, which means that if the Dodgers are to hit that mark, Buehler will need to stack up wins — and he’s more durable than Kershaw.
