Baseball has changed dramatically since its inception in the late nineteenth century. To get a win in a game, a starting pitcher must complete at least five innings and leave with the lead. Then, the team has to keep the lead for the rest of the game. The record for wins in a season for a pitcher is 60 and dates back to 1884, when Charles Radbourn set the record. However, as time went by, pitchers started less frequently (now, it’s unusual for a starting pitcher to open more than 30 games), and the use of the bullpen became more of a strategy. In 1959, journalist Jerome Holtzman created a new statistic, the “save.” In 1969, MLB adopted the save as a specific stat. To earn one, a relief pitcher must enter the game with his team up by no more than three runs and finish that game, or enter the game with his team up and finish at least the final three innings. The all-time leader in saves is Mariano Rivera (652), and the single-season record (62) was set by Francisco Rodriguez in 2008. Going into 2024, let’s look at the MLB betting odds for the game’s top closers to lead the majors in saves.
MLB Betting Analysis: Pitcher with the Most Regular Season Saves | MLB Odds & Picks
- Josh Hader +550
- Emmanuel Clase +600
- Camilo Doval +800
- Edwin Diaz +800
- David Bednar +1300
- Paul Sewald +1300
- Clay Holmes +1300
- Devin Williams +1400
- Jhoan Duran +1400
- Evan Phillips +1600
- Craig Kimbrel +1700
- Kenley Jansen +2100
- Alexis Diaz +2300
- Jordan Romano +2300
- Jose Leclerc +2300
MLB Betting Lines for 2024 Season
Emmanuel Clase has posted 86 saves over the past two seasons and finished both campaigns as the MLB save leader. He saved 44 games for the Cleveland Guardians in 2023 despite having a career-high ERA (3.22) and a career-low strikeout rate (21.2%). Ironically, the right-hander struggled to put away right-handed batters. He struck out righties 14.6% of the time as opposed to 27.8% of lefties. In 2022, he struck out 27.3% of righties, so it’s possible that he will rebound. Even with the lower strikeout rate, he kept righties to a WHIP of 1.04. The last time a closer led MLB in saves, the year was 1926 (the stat was calculated retroactively after its 1969 adoption) when Firpo Marberry pulled it off, but the closer role was much less a part of the game then than it is now.
Camilo Doval had a solid 2022 season (28.0% strikeout rate, 1.24 WHIP, 27 saves), but he was even better for the San Francisco Giants in 2023 (31.0% strike out rate, 1.14 WHIP, 39 saves). His 39 saves tied David Bednar for the most in the senior circuit. He uses three pitches: a slider, a sinker and a cutter, throwing them each about a third of the time. In 2023, his sinker use increased from 25.8% to 30.1%, and his cutter and slider got faster. It also helps that Doval’s stadium, Oracle Park, is pitcher-friendly.
Edwin Diaz had to miss all of 2023 due to a knee injury he suffered during the World Baseball Classic. In 2022, he posted a minuscule 1.31 ERA with 32 saves, striking out 50.2% of opposing hitters and allowing just 0.84 WHIP. The rehab on his knee continues, and the Mets will be conservative with using Diaz in spring training, but he is projected to be ready for a full workload after Opening Day. Diaz led MLB in saves in 2018 (57). His lowest strikeout rate since his career began in 2016 has been 32.0%, and he’s had four seasons with at least 32 saves. The biggest challenge for Diaz will be remaining healthy.
Jordan Romano (+2300) is an interesting longshot. The Toronto closer is the only pitcher in this article besides Clase to finish in the top five in saves in 2022 and 2023. Since he became the Blue Jays’ full-time closer in 2021, he has had 23 or more saves each year, including 36 apiece the alst two seasons. In 2023, his ERA (2.90) and WHIP (1.22) were his career worst, and he also surrendered a career-high launch angle (16.6 degrees). The fly ball rate (45.3%) is a concern. However, he’s the only closer the Blue Jays have, and if his strikeout rate can stay consistent (it has steadily remained around 29.0% the last three seasons) and he can reduce the fly ball rate, he should contend for this title, making him an interesting dark horse.
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