The Boston Red Sox (21-15) had a terrific eight-game winning streak come to an end on Sunday in Philadelphia, as the Red Sox fell, 6-1. They continue interleague play with a quick two-game set in Atlanta against the Braves (24-11), who have also been hot as of late, winning seven of their last ten. The Braves’ starting rotation is in a bit more disarray, with a committee pitching day likely for Wednesday’s game, but they do send Charlie Morton to the hill on Tuesday. Let’s break down both games as you consider your MLB betting options.
MLB Series Spotlight: Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves (May 9-10) | MLB Lines
Projected Pitching Matchup: Nick Pivetta (2-2, 4.99 ERA) (BOS) vs Charlie Morton (3-3, 3.38 ERA) (ATL)
When: Tuesday, May 9 (7:20 pm ET)
Where: SunTrust Park, Atlanta
Live Stream: TBS
Nick Pivetta only gave up one earned run in ten innings combined in hard-luck losses to Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay to start the season. Since then, though, he has been getting hit harder. He has permitted 13 earned runs on 17 hits, including three home runs, in 14 ⅔ combined innings against the Angels, Brewers and Guardians. As much of the plate as he’s been finding lately, the Red Sox opted to skip his turn in the rotation last time, so he will have plenty of rest after not pitching since April 28. The Red Sox have enjoyed what they’ve seen from Masataka Yoshida, who is riding a 16-game hitting streak into this win, posting a .324 average with six home runs and 24 RBI. During the hitting streak, he has five of his six home runs and just six strikeouts.
Charlie Morton had been limiting teams to one or two earned runs per start through the month of April, but the New York Mets got to him for four runs on six hits over 5 ⅓ innings on Monday. He struck out six and walked three in the 5-3 loss. With both of these pitchers finding a lot of the plate, it makes sense to take the over in this game, although Morton has a much lower ERA at home (2.25) than he does on the road. Red Sox to win.
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Projected Pitching Matchup: Brayan Bello (1-1, 5.71 ERA) (BOS) vs TBA (ATL)
When: Wednesday, May 10 (7:20 pm ET)
Where: SunTrust Park, Atlanta
Live Stream: MLB Network, MLB.tv
Brayan Bello has seen his ERA come down with each start after his season debut on April 17. In that game, he only made it 2 ⅔ innings, permitting five runs on eight hits, including a home run. Since then, he has not allowed more than three earned runs in any game and has only allowed three combined earned runs in his last two starts. Once he gives way to the bullpen, the Red Sox have some terrific relievers; the bullpen has only issued the fifth-fewest walks even though they’ve thrown the fifth most innings. Going into Tuesday, Boston’s bullpen has an 8-1 record with a 3.46 ERA, having blown only two saves, the lowest number in the league.
The opportunity for the Braves comes from the Boston starting rotation. They have a combined ERA around 5.86; no team has made the postseason with a starting rotation ERA above 5.00 except during the steroid era (1996-2001). Outside that time frame, rotations have had to do better. If the Braves can get to Bello, they should be able to keep pace with a Boston batting order that has been relentless at making contact and then stealing bases (23 of 25 so far this season). Red Sox to win.
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