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Red Sox at Astros ALDS Game 1 MLB Lines & Expert Preview
When: Thursday, October 5, 2017, 4:08pm ET Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston TV: MLB Network Radio: WEEI 93.7, KBME 790, ESPN Radio Live Stream: MLB.tv MLB Lines: Houston -130 Pitching Matchup: Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA) (BOS) vs Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36 ERA) (HOU)2 ALDS Games this week on #MLBNetwork! Thursday: @RedSox vs. @astros, Game 1 Friday: @Yankees vs. @Indians, Game 2 pic.twitter.com/NpmYEZNAEN
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) October 4, 2017
Weather Forecast
- Clear: 31°C/88°F
- Humidity: 44%
- Precipitation: 0%
- Cloud Cover: 21%
- Wind: 7 mph NE
- Stadium Type: Retractable
Why should you bet on the Red Sox?
Chris Sale did not face Houston during the regular season, but in his career has pitched well against them, posting a lifetime 5-1 record and a 1.31 ERA. He did struggle a little bit down the stretch this season; in his last 11 starts, he posted a combined 4.09 ERA, which was significantly higher than the 2.37 ERA he posted during his first 21 combined starts. Boston’s offense does not rely quite as much on the long ball, but they do a good job with the running game, stealing 106 bases over the course of the season — sixth most in Major League Baseball. The Astros permitted an eye-popping 102 stolen bases in 116 attempts, so expect the Red Sox to be running. The Red Sox have Craig Kimbrel at the back of their bullpen, the man with the best bullpen performance throughout the American League this season. Former Tampa Bay ace David Price enters the ALDS as a member of the Boston bullpen, capable of coming in and throwing several innings at any point in a game. So even if Sale has one of the hard starts that marked the last third of his season, Price could be ready to come on and put out the fire, lasting late into the game to hand the ball to Kimbrel.Why should you put your money on the Astros?
Justin Verlander went 5-0 in his five starts for the Astros since they picked him up from Detroit. Over that time, he has posted a minuscule 1.06 ERA, bringing a psychological edge to an Astros team that had started to wonder why management wasn’t doing anything to boost the team going down the stretch. As powerful as that Boston lineup is, none of their regulars have ever hit home runs off Verlander. Mitch Moreland (.346 lifetime average, 5 RBI), Eduardo Nunez (.333, 1 RBI) and Brock Holt (.300, 2 RBI) are the only Boston sluggers with career averages at or above .300 against him.
The Astros also have a dynamic offense; they led all of MLB with 896 runs and came in second in home runs. A lot of teams that hit with power also strike out a lot, but no team struck out fewer times than the Astros this season. That fits nicely with the 1.76 ERA that the Houston pitching staff posted over the last two weeks of the regular season. Joe Musgrove emerged as a rock-solid setup man, and Chris Devenski, one of Houston’s All-Stars, ended an August slump. This team had start to slump a bit after the All-Star break but had a strong September to enter the postseason on a high note.
Latest MLB Lines Trends
- Red Sox are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games on the road
- Red Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games on the road
- Astros are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
- Astros are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Boston
- Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
