Major League Baseball fans across the world got their hopes up this week as the league announced possible plans to get the season up and running in Arizona, perhaps as early as May, for the duration of the coronavirus social distancing period. If you like to include MLB futures in your sports betting, then you have likely already read our articles about the odds of each team to win the pennant in the American and National Leagues as well as our article on which pitcher has the best chance of posting the most wins in 2020. Now it’s time to turn our attention to the contenders for this year’s award and their Odds to Win the American League MVP.
MLB: Regular Season Awards — AL MVP
AL MVPs Dating Back to 2010
| Year | Player | Team | Team Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | Missed playoffs |
| 2018 | Mookie Betts | Boston Red Sox | World Series Champions |
| 2017 | Jose Altuve | Houston Astros | World Series Champions |
| 2016 | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | Missed playoffs |
| 2015 | Josh Donaldson | Toronto Blue Jays | Lost in ALCS to Kansas City |
| 2014 | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | Lost in ALDS to Kansas City |
| 2013 | Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers | Lost in ALCS to Boston |
| 2012 | Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers | Lost in WS to San Francisco |
| 2011 | Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | Los in ALCS to Texas |
| 2010 | Josh Hamilton | Texas Rangers | Lost in WS to San Francisco |
The purpose of this chart is to show you that, unless you’re Mike Trout, your team needs to be in the postseason if you’re going to win the MVP. Trout puts up transcendent numbers in Los Angeles. Not only is it one of the biggest media markets, but Trout made the playoffs in his first MVP campaign, and he retained media attention. But he is definitely the exception to the rule. So, let’s take a look at the latest odds and go over some of the contenders.
- Mike Trout +125
- Aaron Judge +800
- Francisco Lindor +1000
- Anthony Rendon +1300
- Alex Bregman +1700
- Matt Chapman +1800
- Josh Donaldson +2000
- George Springer +2200
- Jose Ramirez +2500
- Shohei Ohtani +2800
- Gleyber Torres, Xander Bogaerts +3000
- Jose Altuve +3300
- Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez +3500
- Gerrit Cole +4000
First of all, no Houston Astro will win this. The coronavirus might have driven the Astros’ cheating scandal out of the public’s mind for now, but no media group holds a grudge as long and as loud as the Base Ball Writers’ Association of America. They won’t let Pete Rose sniff the Hall of Fame, and he bet on his team to win! He wasn’t in the dugout tunnel banging trash cans to tell his teammates what pitch was on the way, AND he didn’t have mysterious bulges under his jersey while on the field, AND he didn’t freak out when teammates tried to take off his jersey in on-field celebrations. So no, there won’t be any Astros named MVP.
Let’s head straight to the bottom of this list. Gerrit Cole is a terrific sleeper pick. Pitchers don’t often get the MVP award (no one has won it since Verlander did it in 2011), because pitchers have an award of their own — the Cy Young. But this could be a season when offensive numbers are down because of the long off-season. Cole seemed to have a chip on his shoulder in that press conference after the Astros lost to Washington in Game 7 of the World Series, and he has improved his win total each year. If he goes to New York, wins 22-25 games (or 12-15 in a shortened season), has a tiny ERA and the Yankees win the AL East without one big slugger emerging from the pack in that lineup? It’s Cole’s, and you just cashed in on huge odds.
Why is Mike Trout the favorite? Because he has won three of the last ten awards. He has only finished outside the top two in MVP voting one time since 2011. However, he has missed 99 games to injury over the last three years. The Angels went 72-90 last year. Yes, the Angels have added Joe Maddon at manager — and World Series champion Anthony Rendon at third base. So they could contend…but Rendon might be the one getting the credit. Don’t forget Shohei Otani, who is supposed to come back pitching AND hitting this season. If Otani or Rendon take off, Trout could be in the shadows. Given how little value he offers, I’d look elsewhere.
