2024 MLB Regular Season Wins: Picking Win Totals Before Opening Day

Previous Betting News

With Opening Day just a couple of days away, it is time to look at one of the more intriguing MLB betting props for the national pastime: picking over or under the win totals. The 162-game regular season in Major League baseball is a marathon, so picking the number of games a team will win involves a great deal more risk than, say, the 17-game NFL regular season. Let’s take a look at the latest totals for each team, along with some thoughts on leverage.

MLB News: Regular Season Win Totals

American League East

You might think that 62.5 games is a pessimistic total for Baltimore, but they only won 52 games last season. In the off-season, they only added three free agents, and only one of those deals is longer than one year. The rotation has Jordan Lyles, John Means…and then question marks. Tyler Wells has not proven that he can last in games and throw for a full season. The O’s do have a bunch of guys in their mid-20s who are looking to make their mark, but none of them are heralded arms: Keegan Akin, Zac Lowther, Dean Kremer and Bruce Zimmerman. The top pitching prospects are Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish and D.L. Hall, but none of them are expected to be major league ready this year. With all four of the other teams in the division looking to contend for the AL East title or a wild card, the Orioles will do a lot of losing. Take the under.

American League Central

The Cleveland Guardians are one of the oldest franchises in all of baseball, but they enter 2022 with the newest nickname, having exchanged the Indians moniker for a more politically correct mascot. Their 40-man roster has all kinds of potential, and with manager Terry Francona returning to give the team a steady hand, I like the Guardians’ prospects. Bobby Bradley will need to take charge at first base; he hit 16 home runs in 245 at-bats in 2021 – but fanned 99 times. He could hit 40 home runs, but he could also strike out 200 or more times, so he needs to get his plate discipline down. Take the over.

American League West

Oakland is at a point where a reset has come; Bob Melvin is no longer the manager, as he is down the road in San Diego. Stars Sean Manaea, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson and Chris Bassitt are gone, in exchange for a number of top prospects. Mark Kotsay takes over the managerial role, and some of the top contributors from a four-year run of decent success remain: Frankie Montas, Sean Murphy, and Ramon Laureano, who starts the season finishing his suspension, which has 27 more games to run. The A’s are a team that wins more with less under general manager Billy Beane, and I don’t see that stopping. Take the over.

National League East

Philadelphia has not made the postseason in a decade, and the team spent a ton of money, going over MLB’s luxury tax for the first time. An interesting factor about this team is its lineup, which seems clogged with a number of DH types. Given that the National League has made the DH permanent, and given the small dimensions of Citizens Bank Field, there is a lot of wisdom in putting together a team that, just a few years ago, would have only made sense in the American League. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, Didi Gregorius, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto all have big bats, and I like the Phillies to contend with their offense. Take the over.

National League Central

Chicago is entering the first full season of what looks like a rebuild of the team that won the World Series in 2016. However, adding Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki is a sign that management is ready to start competing in the division now. The Cubs only won 71 games a year ago, with a rotation that posted a 5.27 ERA. Kyle Hendricks and Stroman are the top two starters now, and Keegan Thompson and Justin Steele need to produce behind them. On offense, Jason Heyward and Clint Frazier hit well in the second half last year, so if they can continue that, and Suzuki can make a swift adjustment to pitching in Major League Baseball, the Cubs should be able to gain more than 3 ½ wins over last year. Take the over.

National League West

The biggest changes in San Diego this season have come on the coaching staff, as Bob Melvin is the new manager, and he has brought in new coaches all around him. The starting rotation has emerged from its injury woes, so the only bad news going into 2022 is the wrist problem that Fernando Tatis Jr has – a problem that will keep him out until July. The rotation has even more talent than last year, with Sean Manaea coming on board. However, every starter has an injury risk. Yu Darvish (hip), Mike Clevinger (Tommy John surgery) and Adrian Morejon (Tommy John surgery) all have huge upsides, and if Blake Snell can get his head on straight, that’s another elite arm. Take the over.

Previous Betting News

We’re into the first week of spring training action ahead of the 2019 Major League Baseball regular season, which means that it’s time to take a look at win-loss projections for each of the franchises. The Boston Red Sox won 108 games last year and took home the Commissioner’s Trophy as World Series champions, but they are not the team projected to win the most games in 2019: that team is the Houston Astros, projected to win 97 ½ games. We have the MLB total projections for each team as well as our views on which of those totals give you the chance to make some MLB betting money on futures wagers.

2019 MLB Total Win Projections for the Regular Season

Last year, the New York Yankees were projected to win 100 games — and they hit the nail right on the head. Some experts are picking the Yankees to win the American League East despite the fact that Boston did not lose any big pieces except the back two pieces of their bullpen. According to Scout.com, simulations give them a 25.4% chance of reaching the World Series. Given some regression in Toronto, an awful Baltimore team and an iffy Tampa Bay team, the Yankees should stack up win in the division and end up over 94 ½ games.

Houston went 57-24 on the road last year, which was one reason they ended up winning 103 games last year. Scout.com simulations have them with an 18.7% chance to win the World Series. They benefit from a division with the dreadful Texas Rangers, the underperforming Seattle Mariners and the inconsistent Los Angeles Angels. Will Oakland go nuts for 90+ wins again this year. Maybe, but even if they do, Houston should still finish well over 97 ½ games.

The Los Angeles Dodgers did not do much to better themselves — and they saw Manny Machado go down the West Coast to sign a huge deal with the San Diego Padres. Clayton Kershaw is a year older — and he has another disappointing World Series result hanging over him. The Giants are pushing to get Bryce Harper, which would change the calculus of the division considerably. As it looks now, I’m picking the Dodgers to finish under 95 wins.

Philadelphia pulled off a huge deal to add J.T. Realmuto at catcher and are one of the finalists in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes. Even if they don’t add Harper, they have a solid pitching rotation and are in a division in which Atlanta is the only real competition to win the title. Miami is in perpetual fire sale; the Mets are figuring out how to turn their starting pitchers into prospects, and Washington has talent but consistently underperforms. I see the Phillies finishing over 83 wins.

Previous Betting News

The first week of the 2018 Major League Baseball season is almost over, and we’ve seen some things we expected (like Shohei Otani turning on the fastball AND his bat once the regular season started) and some things we didn’t expect (like Bartolo Colon posting the longest outing — six innings — of any of the five members of the Texas Rangers’ starting rotation in their first cycle). One thing we do know is that the season is a marathon, and one of the more popular sports betting futures for this sport has to do with the over/under on win totals. Take a look at our MLB betting perspectives on several bets you should consider.

Top 7 MLB Betting Win Total Over/Under Bets for 2018

Washington (Over 92.5)

Washington had a dreadful closing situation in April and May last year — and they still ended up winning 97 games. Adam Eaton missed 139 games due to injury; Bryce Harper missed 51; Trea Turner missed 64. Tanner Roark didn’t have a sharp year. We might see Gio Gonzalez and Ryan Zimmerman take a step back, but the rest of the National League East is dreadful. Washington has won at least 95 games in four of the last six seasons, and there’s no reason to think they won’t do it again. Now will they advance beyond the NLDS for the first time in franchise history? That’s an entirely different question.

Boston (Over 91.5)

Boston took home the American League East title, winning 93 games, despite having no real power threat in their batting order. They’ve added J.D. Martinez to the mix, and Andrew Benintendi should have a better sophomore season, and Mookie Betts could find his bat coming back to life. They shouldn’t lose Rafael Devers for so much time either. On the mound, David Price only had 16 appearances last year, including 11 starts. It’s important to remember that he’s only 32 — and he could have a terrific comeback season.

Oakland (Over 74.5)

The Athletics have put together one of the better offensive lineups in the American League. Their pitching rotation is young and unproven (that’s just the Billy Beane way), but they should be able to get enough wins to get over this total. They won 75 games last year — and they showed plenty of flaws. Add the regression in Texas to this, and you should see Oakland getting close to 80 victories.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Under 96.5)

The Dodgers didn’t do anything to replace Yu Darvish, and while they still have Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood and Rich Hill, they’re another injury away from rotation problems. Between 2013 and 2016, the team won 92, 94, 92 and 91 games, respectively. They did win 104 games a year ago, but that included one of the most amazing runs in the history of the sport. They opened the season by having the San Francisco Giants shut them out in a pair of 1-0 games. They did rebound to get the series split, but there are issues that could keep the Dodgers below this total while still making the postseason.

New York Yankees (Under 94.5)

Putting a rookie out there at third base is a huge risk. Giancarlo Stanton did have a monster debut, but he has a lengthy history of injuries. And remember Aaron Judge’s slump midseason last year? There’s nothing stopping a sophomore slump from nabbing him as well. Will New York make the postseason? I like them in one of the wild card positions behind Boston right now. But I don’t think they crack 92 wins.

Colorado (Under 82)

The Rockies took one of the two wild cards last year in the National League, but the Giants have moved past them, and the Dodgers and Diamondbacks are still ahead of them. They will have the Padres to knock around, but the easy wins in the Bay aren’t going to be there this year.

Kansas City (Under 71.5)

It hasn’t taken long for this team to descend from a pair of pennants and a World Series crown to the rebuilding heap, but the Royals are here. Yes, the White Sox and the Tigers are also in this dreadful division, but Cleveland and the Twins will beat Kansas City plenty of times, and they don’t have the pitching or the offense to crack this total.

Previous Betting News

We’re still a few weeks from Opening Day, but the sports books’ win/loss totals have been out for some time now. Let’s take a look at some of the most recent ones — and the ones you should think about picking up for the upcoming MLB betting season.

MLB Season Win Totals Picks That Won’t Disappoint

Detroit (85) — It seems like just yesterday that the Tigers had a lock on the AL Central. But then Justin Verlander lost his magic arm, and the magic bat of Miguel Cabrera seemed to turn to styrofoam, and all of a sudden the Tigers are awful once again. Yes, they added Mark Lowe. That’s the same Mark Lowe that showed the St. Louis Cardinals, in the bottom of the 11th inning in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series, that they could hit the ball a really long way, putting the nail in the Series against Texas. I’m taking the under.

Boston (85.5) — Yes, the Red Sox signed the great David Price to their rotation. However, even with the venerable Big Papi on hand to maintain order, this is a roster filled with athletes getting too much money and feeling way too much entitlement — and Pablo Sandoval is just one example. I’m going under here.

Atlanta (65) — Last year, the Braves went 67-95. So now the line has them 32 games under .500? Well, they didn’t add anyone to help their lineup, and teams that don’t make changes after awful seasons generally don’t get any better, and sometimes they get worse. So I’d be really tempted to take the under here, even though it means this won’t be winning much.

Cincinnati (71) — Do you remember a couple of seasons ago when the Reds were an elite contender? Yes, it’s hard to remember — and it wasn’t that long ago. Now that Johnny Cueto is long gone, this is a team that is not even pretending to contend in the NL Central right now. Last year they went 64-98, and I don’t see them being seven wins better without Cueto, so I’m picking the under here.

Cleveland (84) — This team has a TERRIFIC pitching staff, headlined by young fireballer Corey Kluber. However, this team is like a collection of National League pitchers when it comes to offense, and they just don’t give their pitching staff enough run support. They went 81-81 last year, and they haven’t added the offense that they need. If anything, their pitching is likely to falter a bit, so I’m going under.

Miami (80.5) — This team will need to improve by 10 wins from last year if they want to beat this total. They do have Don Mattingly as their new skipper. However, he had an immensely talented roster with the Dodgers, and he couldn’t budge them past the first round of the playoffs. Can he build a moribund Miami team? I’m taking the under here.

Texas (86) — The Rangers roared out of nowhere to win 88 games. Now they get a year with a healed Yu Darvish and a healed Derek Holland. I see this team heading upward, so I’m taking the over.