In Game Three of the NBA Finals, Stephen Curry went 1 for 10 from behind the three-point arc. He didn’t have his second field goal of the game until there were fewer than three minutes left in the fourth period. Except for Kevin Durant, no Golden State Warrior had more than 11 points. So you would expect LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers to take advantage and win to cut their series deficit to 2-1, right? Think again. The phrase “except Kevin Durant” is the key here, as he went off for 43 points on the night — and went 4-for-4 on three-point shots 30 feet or further from the basket (after just making one of them prior to this as a Warrior), earning the compliment of “assassin” from LeBron in the postgame conference. The fact that Golden State has so many weapons is turning out to be the difference-maker in these Finals. Can the Cavaliers avoid the sweep on Friday night, or will Golden State be lifting the Larry O’Brien trophy in Cleveland? Take a look at our NBA odds preview for Game Four.
2018 Playoffs Game 4: Golden State at Cleveland NBA Odds & Pick
On the rare nights when LeBron James has an off night, the Cavaliers don’t win. Kevin Love, Kyle Korver, George Hill and Tristan Thompson are nice role players, but they can’t step up and take over games. Kevin Durant came to Golden State after the 2016 Finals so that the Warriors would have another star in place on nights when Curry and Klay Thompson couldn’t carry the team with their scoring, and we saw this in Game Three, as Durant hit a huge three over J.R. Smith’s outstretched hand in the last minute to extend the Warriors’ lead to six and essentially end the contest.
I picked the Cavaliers to cover a 4.5-point spread in Game Three, and then we saw them throw the kitchen sink at the Warriors — and still come up empty. Cleveland had a similar approach in the series opener out in Oakland, and they rode it to overtime, only to fall apart in the extra frame. LeBron James is a transcendent player, but he cannot carry a team by himself all the way to a title. In Game Four, I expect both teams to come out with a similar hunger, and I expect another close result. However, it’s hard to argue that Cleveland can make other adjustments against Golden State.
Why should you bet on the Cavaliers?
Even as loaded as Golden State’s roster is, the Cavaliers were still within three in the last minute of the game. If Kevin Durant clanks that shot from way beyond the arc and LeBron drains a three at the other end, we’re looking at overtime again, so it’s really just a matter of clutch shots taken late. It’s true that the Warriors have more offensive weapons, at least at the All-Star level, but the Cavaliers will have their home crowd behind them and the memory of overcoming that 3-1 series deficit back in 2016.
Even with their wealth of offensive weapons, the Warriors do not have a defender who can shut down LeBron James, even with Andre Iguodala back in the lineup. It’s fair to argue that the entire NBA lacks a defender who can do that, of course. Not since DeShawn Stevenson in the 2011 NBA Finals have we seen a player who can push LeBron out of his offensive element at this point in the postseason. If you like Cleveland, you see them holding the Warriors close again — but getting that stop and converting their chances at the end.
Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction
What we saw down the stretch in Game Three was reality taking over this series and Golden State establishing themselves as the superior roster, thanks to the emergence of Durant. I see the Warriors polishing off the sweep on Friday night by a score of 122-116.
