Going into Game 3 of the NBA Finals, the Miami Heat had plenty of excuses to hang their heads. They got blown out in Game 1 and then lost a Game 2 that was closer but still clearly the Lakers’ game. Before Game 3, they found out that ageless point guard Goran Dragic and young center Bam Adebayo would both have to miss the game. Then, of course, the Heat pulled off another upset behind a 40-point triple-double out of Jimmy Butler, a result so emphatic that LeBron James walked off the court with 10 seconds to go, refusing to come back and finish the game, a gesture reminiscent of a time in 2010 when it was clear that the Cleveland Cavaliers could not stop the Boston Celtics and James just stood out there on the court as play went back and forth around him. Have the Heat actually drawn blood? Or will the Lakers just come back and win the next two games?
As you consider your NBA betting, here are our thoughts on where the Finals are headed.
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Where the Finals Stand
First, it’s important to talk about the performance that Butler gave his team, inspiring them to play the sort of game that has brought their team to the Finals, after departing from that style in the first two games. On offense, the Heat like to run three different sets: the pick-and-roll started by Dragic, offense run through Adebayo in the high post, and then Butler ad-libbing to get his points. Without Adebayo and Dragic, there was none of that variety, and we didn’t see Dragic driving to the net to dish to an open shooter.
In Game 3, Butler dominated the game in the halfcourt offense. Along with those 40 points, he pulled down 11 boards and handed out 13 assists. He shot 14 free throws, and when the team was on defense, he marked LeBron for long periods of time. Instead of making his 40 from downtown, a la James Harden, he scored inside. Only two of his shot attempts came from more than 15 feet away from the rim — the same distance as the free throw line — and he did not attempt a single three-point shot. He also delivered some insane passes, showing that he is now running the point while Dragic is on the shelf. If Butler and the young crew of players that he has mentored to play intense basketball, grinding on both offense and defense, can keep pushing the Lakers, LeBron has shown that he will blink. He blinked against the Celtics while in Cleveland. He blinked against the Spurs and the Mavericks while he was in Miami. He blinked against the Warriors while he was in Cleveland. He has the tools and the talent to win, especially now that he has cobbled a roster around him that includes AD, but psychologically he remains easier to discourage than some of the other greats in NBA history.
With that said, the Lakers still have the far better roster. LeBron still put up 25 points, 10 boards and eight assists. Markieff Morris and Kyle Kuzma each came off the bench to score 19. Anthony Davis had a bit of an off night, with just 15 points. If LeBron falters again in Game 4, it may be that AD comes through, as he did against Denver in the West finals. The Lakers still have kept coming back. After all, each time the Heat jumped out to a double-digit lead in Game 3, the Lakers would respond with a rally. The Lakers ended up shooting just 14 for 42 from downtown, and it’s hard to imagine that low percentage happening again in Game 4.
Even so, Miami was down in the 2006 NBA Finals, 2-0, and came back to win it in six. To do that again would be even more unthinkable now than it was then. It’s a long shot, but the Heat created some hope in Game 3.
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