When it comes to NBA Betting Strategy, every type of game has different ways to wager. Just about all sports offer moneyline wagers on game outcomes, in addition to betting props that focus on individual statistics.
In some sports, such as football and basketball, taking one side or the other of the point spread is a popular wager, while in hockey and baseball, where the scoring involves much lower numbers, the moneyline turns out to be more popular.
Understanding betting odds for each sport involves realizing how the numbers work. With NBA betting odds, the moneyline, the point spread and the point total are some of the most popular game-based wagers.
Read on to learn more about wagering on pro basketball.
NBA Betting Strategy for 2024/25 Season
Moneyline Wagering
With the money line, you are picking a team to win the game outright. This is the most basic way to wager on basketball. It doesn’t matter what the margin of victory is – or if the game ends in regulation or goes to overtime. If the team you choose wins by one in triple OT or wins by 50, the payout is the same. Sportsbooks give each team money line odds based on their probability of winning. After the line opens, the numbers will likely shift one way or the other, depending on how heavy the action is for one particular team.
Minus, or negative, odds tell you the favorite. Plus odds tell you the underdog. Let’s say that the Dallas Mavericks are heavy favorites against the Chicago Bulls. The Mavericks might have odds of -230. That would mean that you would need to bet $230 to win $100, or collect $330 in total. If the Bulls are listed as +280 underdogs in that game, you would win $280 with a $100 bet if the Bulls pull off the upset.
^Point Spread Wagering
The moneyline is one way that sportsbooks can indicate which team is more likely to win. Another way is a point spread, which represents what the betting industry thinks is the anticipated margin of victory for the winning team. The odds will usually be around -110 (betting $110 to win $100 and collect a total of $210) for each side, because the point spread is more likely to change than these moneylines.
Let’s go back to the prior example of the Mavericks-Bulls game. For that same contest, the point spread might have the Mavericks favored to win by 8 ½ points. You might wonder why a point spread would include fractions of a point. If the Mavericks were favored by 8 points, and ended up winning 100-92, then all bets would be refunded because of the “push” result. Using a fraction of a point ensures that one side or the other will win.
If Dallas beats Chicago by nine, and you picked the Mavericks to cover the spread, then you would collect winnings. If Dallas wins, but they only win by six, you wouldn’t collect, because the Mavericks won, but they didn’t cover the point spread. If you picked Chicago to cover, they could still lose the game by as many as eight points, but you would still collect on the wager.
^Wagering Point Total
This wager is also called an “over/under” and includes an estimate of how many points one team, or both teams combined, will score. Let’s go back to that Mavericks-Bulls example. If both teams like to play a run-and-gun style without a lot of defense, then you might see a point spread as high as 230. If the point total is set at 217 ½ points, and Dallas wins 110-107, you would need to have taken the “under” on the total to win.
Like point spreads, point totals often have just about even (-110) odds on both sides because if the action comes in heavy on one side or the other, the point total will adjust.
For example, if the Dallas-Chicago game had a 217 ½ point total when the bet opened, and 90% of the money came in on the “over,” then that point total would go up a point or two. If you had already bet on the “over” on 217 ½, your bet would be honored, but once the point total shifts, bets coming in later have to use the new number.
These are just the basics when it comes to NBA betting odds. The more familiar you become with betting, the more prepared you will be to take on advanced wagers, such as parlays, which are combinations of bets, all of which have to pay for you to collect.
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