Injuries are taking their toll in the Eastern Conference semifinal series between Miami and Philadelphia. The 76ers do not have center Joel Embiid, who suffered an orbital fracture and a concussion in Game 6 against Toronto, a big win for Philadelphia, but Embiid missed Game 1 (which the Heat won) and will miss at least one more game. The Heat will not have Kyle Lowry again for Game 2, but that didn’t keep the Heat from winning. In the other East semifinal, Boston bounced back big-time in Game 2 against the Milwaukee Bucks, routing the visitors to send the series all square to Wisconsin. The NBA betting odds for each team to win their respective conferences appear below, along with some notes about some of the eight remaining contenders.
NBA News: Updated Conference Championship Odds
Eastern Conference
- Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat → +175
- Boston Celtics → +240
- Philadelphia 76er → +1200
Western Conference
- Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns → +110
- Memphis Grizzlies → +1100
- Dallas Mavericks → +1400
Dallas went small against Utah and won the series, because Rudy Gobert could not make that strategy pay enough for the Jazz to win. Deandre Ayton is another thing altogether, and he feasted in the paint in Game 1, an easy Suns win despite a huge night from Luka Doncic. If you’re wondering why Jalen Brunson isn’t putting up beast numbers like he did against Utah, he did most of that damage while Luka was out with a calf strain. With Luka on the floor, Brunson isn’t a playmaker anymore, and he has only hit 23.8% of his three-point attempts over the last two weeks. The Mavericks should work on getting better performance from distance, which may mean less time for Brunson despite his transcendent work in the first round.
Philadelphia will have to run the offense through James Harden with Joel Embiid on the shelf, which means opposing defenses will focus on the Beard. Tobias Harris benefited from the extra attention on Harden, putting up 27 points, leading the team in shots and minutes. Harris should be in a similar spot to produce in Game 2, so if you’re looking for some individual props for this game, look at Harris to generate strong numbers again. Until Embiid returns, it looks like Doc Rivers will start DeAndre Jordan at center – which will only help the Heat. The matchup of Bam Adebayo and DeAndre Jordan will go the Heat’s way emphatically; it only took four minutes of Jordan on the floor for Philadelphia to post a -12 rating; he played 17 total minutes, and the team was -22.
Miami has gotten solid work from Tyler Herro, just named the Sixth Man of the Year in the NBA. When Kyle Lowry is not in the game, Herro’s assist percentage jumps from 19% to 24.7% He should get about 30 minutes in the game, with lots of usage. You can get an assist prop of 3.5 for Herro tonight, and going over that number could make a lot of sense given that much time and that much distribution on the floor. Also, his point prop is 18.5, and he was well over that in Game 1. He is officially questionable for Game 2 with a left ankle sprain, but with Lowry out, Herro will play.
Phoenix continues to get throwback play from Chris Paul, and while he only had three assists in Game 1, which was a laugher until the Mavericks made the score at least look respectable in the fourth quarter. The assist prop for Paul is 9.5, and over the last two seasons, he has averaged 9.0 assists per game. However, the way the Suns dominated the paint in Game 1, he might not have to distribute much in Game 2 either, so I’d take the under there. We’ve already mentioned Ayton’s production, and the points + rebounds prop for him is 29.5. Dallas’ answer for Ayton is a combination of Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell, both of whom give up size and strength. Ayton went 9 of 15 on Monday night, and I like him to go over that total again.
NBA Betting Odds
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