The Denver Nuggets currently sit 43-22 in the NBA’s Western Conference standings, in third place, seven games behind the conference-leading Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets had led the conference standings for much of the early part of the 2019-20 regular season, but they have cooled off since then. They have won just five of their last ten and were beaten in their last game before the coronavirus-inspired suspension in Dallas, falling to the Mavericks, 113-97, on March 11. At this time, it is not certain what will happen in the NBA as far as resuming the regular season, going straight to playoffs or simply canceling the whole season. The league remains in a suspension that will last at least 30 days. For now, though, you can still make wagers about the Nuggets’ chances to win the NBA title with sports betting futures. Take a look at our thoughts and NBA Odds about this season’s edition of the Denver Nuggets.
NBA: Denver Nuggets 2019-20 Season Analysis
Offensive Analysis
In the NBA, there have been 27 five-man lineups that have played for at least 200 or more minutes with all of them on the floor together. Denver’s starting five of Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap, Will Barton III and Gary Harris have a net rating of +12.1, sixth best in the league. This metric means that this lineup outscored their opposition by 12.1 points per 100 possessions. However, that lineup was not together between Christmas Day and after the All-Star break, thanks to the injury to Barton. After play resumes, Denver could get another dominant run out of their first five.
Defensive Analysis
Denver’s defense has been elite this season, ranking as high as second in the NBA in fewest points permitted, even though there are no standout defensive stars on the team. One key is continuity; when they start a game, they keep that lineup on the floor almost 42 percent of their possessions. They also play the most possessions with zero starters on the floor (almost 20 percent). Having continuity on the floor has made a difference. The defensive scheme relies on aggressive pressure on the ball, rotations on the back line to keep cutters from taking advantage, and a constant flow of communication. That means that teammates have to know one another’s tendencies. With a steady flow of substitutions, one or two at a time, that scheme would be more at risk.
Key Players/Numbers
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are the two players the Nuggets have under max contracts, and they have been playing like the money men they are — at least until the last week or so. After the all-Star break, they were both in the top five in the NBA in individual net rating for players who had played at least 20 games and had appeared in at least 25% of the team’s clutch time (defined as playing within a certain margin during the fourth quarter of games). The team’s net rating is +0.8 in the first half, but it is +7.4 in the second half, fifth best in the league. At the All-Star break, the Nuggets were 16-13 (.552) in games that they trailed at halftime, third-best in the league. So these two players can deliver in the clutch. The question is whether they were wearing down. Can the unexpected break give them a chance to get fresh legs?
Odds to Win the NBA Championship: 25/1
It is worth noting that, at the All-Star break, the Nuggets had the ninth-toughest remaining strength of schedule, at .517. Some of their main competitors for the West crown had significantly lower marks. Utah’s is .502 (15th), the Lakers’ was .487 (22nd), and Houston and the Clippers’ was .477 (tied for 23rd). One might think that this would be good news for Houston, but they have gone into a bit of a funk themselves. If Denver can come back and play like they did at the start of the season thanks to this extended break, they could challenge the Lakers in the West.
