On Monday, the NBA postseason got underway, and we published an article with predictions for each of the first-round series. The Eastern Conference is interesting because there does not seem to be a clear front-runner at this time. The Toronto Raptors were the hottest team in the East entering the postseason, but can Kyle Lowry keep the team on his back? The Milwaukee Bucks had entered the postseason with a historic win-loss record during the season, but they didn’t look all that solid during the “bubble” games. Philadelphia looked like an intriguing spoiler until Ben Simmons went down for the rest of the season.
Let’s take a look at each team’s shot at making the NBA Finals as you plan your futures basketball betting.
NBA Betting:
Western Conference — Early Winner Predictions
Los Angeles Lakers (1)
Yes, the Lakers have the best record in the West. However, in the “bubble,” they ranked 21st (of 22 teams) in offensive rating, 20th in net rating and 12th in defensive rating. Both LeBron James and Anthony Davis put up effective field goal percentages that were well below their averages.
So were they relaxing, and are they ready to put their game into a higher gear once they start the postseason? LeBron James, for his career, has an 8.2 plus/minus in the regular season and a 10.4 plus/minus in the postseason. So he might be looking to conserve his energy.
However, the Lakers may not have the supporting cast to get around a deeper team in a seven-game series.
Los Angeles Clippers (2)
The Clippers might hold the second seed, but they have, at least on paper, the strongest roster in the conference. Kawhi Leonard is just one of three players in NBA history to win a Finals MVP for multiple teams (along with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and LeBron James). He ranks fourth in NBA history for plus-minus for a career.
Paul George put up a terrific season when he was available — and he’s healthy now. When George and Leonard were on the floor together, the Clippers were +12.1 points per 100 possessions. Then you have Lou Williams dropping bombs from outside, Marcus Morris Sr, Montrezl Harrell, Patrick Beverley and Ivica Zubac to boot.
But can the Clippers hold off Dallas in the first round?
Denver Nuggets (3)
Nikola Jokic averaged 25.1 points, 13.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game in his first postseason last year, over two series. He only played 29.3 minutes per game in Denver’s “bubble” games, but he still averaged 17.9/6.0/8.3 in those same metrics.
Michael Porter Jr could be this year’s new spark for the Nuggets. He gets to the rim and cashes in on offensive rebounds. When both were on the floor this season, Denver scored 121.0 points per 100 possessions.
Denver survived Utah in overtime in their Game 1 opener, but as the series goes on, Denver’s greater depth will carry them. But how far can they go?
Houston Rockets (4)
Houston is the most difficult team to handicap in this year’s NBA playoffs. Could they flame out in the first round against Oklahoma City? Yes. Could they ride their small-ball wave all the way to a title? Yes. James Harden is a transcendent offensive talent, and Westbrook is emerging as an intriguing choice at “point center.” When Harden and Westbrook are on the floor without a traditional center, Houston is +7.8 points per 100 possessions, and Westbrook shoots 58.3 percent from the floor. He can head to the rim with no one in the paint, instead of clanking bad jump shots.
However, Westbrook will miss Game 1, at least. Until we know how long Westbrook will be out, we won’t know how to gauge Houston’s chances.
Oklahoma City Thunder (5)
Chris Paul has turned back the clock this season, playing at an elite level at point guard despite being 35 years old. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as the next great point guard, also terrific from the 2, and veterans Dennis Schroder, Danilo Gallinari and Steven Adams have emerged as well.
If the Thunder can eliminate a Westbrook-less Houston team, things get interesting, but it’s hard to see that this team has enough depth to get to the Finals.
Utah Jazz (6)
Bogdan Bogdanovic needed wrist surgery, and that has dropped an anchor through the hull of the boat holding Utah’s playoff chances. In 2019-20, they were +6.3 points per 100 possessions when he was playing, and -3.5 with him on the bench. His spacing is essential for a pick-and-roll team that has Rudy Gobert on the other end of the play.
Donovan Mitchell put up 57 points against Denver in Game 1 of their series — but the Nuggets won in overtime. Mike Conley won’t be running the point for a while, because he left the bubble for his son’s birth. That means that Jordan Clarkson and Emmanuel Mudiay will have a lot to do, especially with Jamal Murray nursing a hamstring, and with Will Barton and Gary Harris still on the shelf.
However, the Jazz can play defense, and they can get open shots.
Dallas Mavericks (7)
In Game 1 against the Clippers, Luka Doncic put up 42 points, setting a record for a player’s playoff debut. However, Dallas only scored 13 points in the third quarter, as Kristaps Porzingis received a controversial ejection, and the Clippers ended up winning by seven.
The Mavericks can score. In addition to Luka, the Mavs have Kristaps Porzingis (26.3 points and 10.4 boards per game since February 1). They have Seth Curry, Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith and Tim Hardaway Jr as sharpshooters. However, they really, really struggle to get stops on defense.
If they can somehow upset the Clippers, though, things get really interesting for them.
Portland Trail Blazers (8)
This is an intriguing team that clawed its way over Phoenix and around Memphis to snag the eighth seed. Jusuf Nurkic can create for other players with his passing. He averaged 17.6 points, 10.3 boards, 4.0 assists and 2.0 blocks in the eight bubble games, giving an inside-out dimension to a team that relies so heavily on C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard to contribute from the perimeter.
However, Lillard and McCollum have had to play more than 40 minutes per game in the bubble because the team only has an eight-man rotation.
Can they maintain enough energy even to oust the Lakers in the first round, let alone make a deep run?
Xbet Predictions
Early Western Conference Picks
Smart Pick to Win:
L.A. Clippers | Check the Odds
Safe Pick to Win:
L.A. Lakers | Check the Odds
Sleeper Pick to Win:
Denver Nuggets | Check the Odds
Dark Horse Pick to Win:
Portland Trail Blazers / Dallas Mavericks | Check the Odds
