Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo returned from a hyperextended knee that held him out of Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, taking the floor for Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Phoenix Suns. However, things did not go so well for the Bucks in the desert, as Phoenix rolled to a 118-105 win to take the early series lead. Chris Paul made his NBA Finals debut, after 16 years, putting up 32 points and dishing out nine assists, so while Giannis looked healthy, his presence was not enough.
Let’s look at the updated NBA betting odds for the championship, along with our thoughts ahead of Game 2.
NBA News: Finals Update
Team Championship Odds
Phoenix Suns -300 / Milwaukee Bucks +240
The third quarter was the point of separation between the Suns and Bucks in Game 1. Paul had 16 points, going 6 of 7 from the floor and making all three of his long balls. Devin Booker put up 27 points on the night, and Deandre Ayton chipped in 22 points and 19 boards. Paul torched Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis time and time again on the pick-and-roll, as the top defense in the NBA had no answers inside.
Milwaukee did trim the lead to seven in the fourth quarter but could not get any closer. Antetokounmpo ended up with 20 points and 17 boards, and Khris Middleton contributed 29. However, Jrue Holiday went just 4 of 14, settling for 10 points, and the Bucks find themselves down 1-0 in the third consecutive series of this postseason.
Milwaukee’s Mike Budenholzer actually got creative with his lineups for a change, making adjustments to the speed of Phoenix. In the fourth quarter of Game 1, he brought on Pat Connaughton and Bryn Forbes to join Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Holiday. That made for a small lineup, featuring Antetokounmpo at center. The Bucks ended up winning the fourth quarter by three points — not enough to get close to a win, but enough to make you wonder if this is an idea Budenholzer will use again. Lopez, who went off for 33 points in Game 5 of the East finals, did not appear in the fourth quarter, and P.J. Tucker sat on the bench for most of the frame. Antetokounmpo ended up guarding Ayton, keeping him to just a pair of field goal attempts in the last quarter. He scored only four points. A similar strategy could help keep things close earlier in the game.
Forbes and Connaughton ended up going 4 of 7 from downtown in that period, while none of the Phoenix starters had over five points in the period. Some of this, of course, may have had to do with the sense that the game was out of hand, but if this small lineup can produce some defensive improvement in the first half on Thursday, that could give Milwaukee an early edge.
How about the Game 2 point total? It opened at 220, a half-point higher than the Game 1 total — and the “over” cleared, but just barely, as the game yielded 223 points. However, if the Bucks do opt to go with three guards, that should lead to more shots from behind the arc. Even if they remain with their two-guard alignment from Game 1, their shooting should improve. The Bucks went 16 of 36 from behind the arc, while Holiday had a tough shooting night. Improvement just from him should add as many as five to ten points to what Milwaukee scores.
If Antetokounmpo has defensive responsibility for Ayton for more of the game, though, his point total could go down, and there’s no guarantee that the ageless Paul will have a similarly hot night from the floor in Game 2. Both of these teams have produced some clunker games in terms of offense in these playoffs, and fatigue will play an increasing factor as we move further into this series. So for Game 2, I’m tempted to take the Bucks to cover with an opening line of Phoenix -5.5, and I’m also tempted to take the under.
NBA Betting Odds
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