If you had bet on the Atlanta Hawks to beat Milwaukee in the East finals before Game 1, you could have gotten a +642 moneyline on a lot of books. Now that the dust has settled on Game 1, with a three-point Atlanta win, that has dropped to +170. That’s still a fairly good value wager, but you may have missed out on some value, depending on how things turn out. In the Western Conference, with the Phoenix Suns heading to Los Angeles up 2-0 in their conference final series, and with Kawhi Leonard expected to miss at least Game 3 as his knee woes continue, that’s a series that is hard to recommend betting on now, because you’re getting zero value out of a Phoenix win, while the Clippers had Kawhi for at least part of their comeback against Utah and for all of their comeback against Dallas.
Let’s look at the NBA betting odds for the two finals series and our recommendations for your wagering.
NBA News: Updated Odds to Win Each Conference
Eastern Conference
Milwaukee -210 / Atlanta +170
One of the top stories from this postseason has been the emergence of Trae Young, who plays fearless basketball and has reached a point where he is almost impossible to stop when his shot is going. However, despite the fact that Philadelphia found a way to slow him down offensively, the Hawks still knocked them out in seven games. Why? Because of their other role players. Cint Capela and John Collins are opportunistic on the boards and simply outwork the opposition. The Bucks have two 7-footers in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, but Capela and Collins still combined for 31 rebounds in Game 1. That’s a testament to their work ethic and determination, traits that a lot of teams with better rosters on paper need to work on during the off-season.
On the other side of the ball, Milwaukee almost won this game despite a dreadful shooting night from Khris Middleton. If the Bucks go back and look at what happens when defenses force Trae Young to the sidelines and into the corners, instead of allowing him free rein in the middle of the court, then there are some areas for them to exploit. Giannis needs to keep slashing to the rim like he has been doing, instead of setting for open shots from downtown — shots he simply doesn’t have the tools to make in sufficient quantity at this point, and he recognizes this. I think the Bucks pull this series out, simply because I don’t see them folding like Philadelphia did in Games 4, 5 and 7.
Western Conference
Phoenix -910 / Los Angeles +575
You might think that Cameron Payne’s 29 points in Game 2 is enough to help the Suns get past the absence of Chris Paul. However, the truth is that the offense had significantly stagnated while Paul was out, and with the Clippers starting Patrick Beverley, Devin Booker was finding his space limited since Beverley is quicker getting to spots to guard him. Beverley can maneuver around Deandre Ayton’s screens, messing up the flow of the offense. With Paul back on the floor, the Suns have another weapon that the Clippers have to worry about. The Clippers started Ivica Zubac at center in Game 2, but with Paul back, if Zubac tries that drop coverage that he used against the pick-and-roll in Game 2, Paul will take advantage all day long.
Even if the Clippers don’t use Zubac and go small, Paul can still get to his spots, whether he is on or off the ball. Then there’s the role he plays as a playmaker and passer, as well as the intangibles he brings as a communicator. With Paul back for the Clippers — and with Kawhi still on the bench — this 2-0 hole is significantly deeper than the ones the Clippers escaped in the first two rounds. I’m more likely to look at point spreads for the remaining games, and at point totals, than for series odds for the West finals.
NBA Betting Odds
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