When the NBA Finals shifted to Miami after Game 2, the Heat had all of the momentum. They had upset the Denver Nuggets on the road in Game 2, and sports betting experts were wondering if the Heat’s decision to make Nikola Jokic beat them by himself was the winning formula. After all, the Nuggets had a significantly worse record in these playoffs when Jokic scored more than 40 points in a game. We saw that strategy fail in Games 3 and 4, though. Not only did Jokic become the first player to post a 30-20-10 line in any NBA Finals game when he did it in Game 3, and we saw Aaron Gordon lead the Nuggets in another emphatic win in Game 4. The series moves back to Denver, so now the only question is whether the Heat can extend it to a sixth game. Read on to find our NBA betting prediction for Monday’s showdown.
NBA Finals Betting Preview of the Game 5 Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets
Nuggets lead, 3-1
When: Saturday, June 10, 2023, 8:30 pm ET
Where: Ball Arena, Denver
TV: ABC
Radio: ESPN Radio
Live Stream: Sling TV
NBA Odds: Miami +8.5 / O/U 209.5 // Miami +300 / Denver -375
Why should you bet on the Heat?
Miami has spent much of this postseason punching way above its collective weight. They started the play-in tournament with a loss, and if they had lost the second game, they wouldn’t have been in the postseason at all. Since then, they have knocked out teams with much better rosters and who put together much more successful regular seasons. The last time they faced elimination on the road came in Game 7 of the East finals, when they went to Boston and humiliated the Celtics in the Garden. In that series, though, the Celtics had to come back from a 3-1 deficit to force Game 7. This time, it is the Heat on the wrong end of that mammoth deficit.
Denver beat Miami in just about every aspect of the contest in Game 4. Jimmy Heat did put up 25 points, seven boards and seven assists, and Bam Adebayo chipped in 20 points and 11 rebounds, but the Heat had 14 turnovers (compared to just six for the Nuggets), and they clanked 17 of their 25 three-point attempts. Those are signs of a team that is showing signs of fatigue, and heading to the high altitude of Denver makes Game 5 even more challenging. If you like Miami to cover, though, you see them showing a similar resilience that they have shown throughout these playoffs. With their backs against the wall, taking the Heat to cover seems like a smart play.
Bet on the Heat!
Why should you put your money on the Nuggets?
After losing Game 2 at home, Nuggets head coach Mike Malone used the press conference to call out his players for a lack of effort. It’s pretty clear that he communicated that message as the Nuggets elevated their play the next two contests, including that 108-95 win on Friday. In Game 4, they made 14 of 28 from behind the arc on a night in which the team shot 49% overall. Jokic had 23 points and a dozen boards, but the rest of the team stepped up. Alongside Gordon’s 27-point night, Bruce Brown came off the bench to score 21, and Jamal Murray had a nice double-double with 15 points and a dozen assists.
If you’re wondering about the size of this point spread, remember that Denver won Games 3 and 4 on the road by dougle figures. They are the heavy favorite in this series, and in three of the first four games, they have shown us why. Jokic continues to be an unstoppable force in terms of scoring and distribution, and his teammates have shown up in terms of sharing the scoring burden.
Bet on the Nuggets!
Final Score and Prediction
I don’t think the Heat have figured out the answers when it comes to beating Denver four times in seven games. I do think they have enough left in the tank to throw the kitchen sink at the Nuggets in Game 5. The Heat will wear out down the stretch, but they’ll keep it closer than nine points. I predict a final score of Denver 108, Miami 102.
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