The Eastern Conference semifinals are set, with the Miami Heat squaring off against the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics meeting the Toronto Raptors. In the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Lakers eliminated the Portland Trail Blazers in five games, while the Los Angeles Clippers needed six games to knock out the pesky Dallas Mavericks. The Houston Rockets lead the Oklahoma City Thunder, 3-2, in their conference quarterfinal — although the Rockets got Russell Westbrook back for Game 5 and cruised to a win. The Utah Jazz and the Denver Nuggets are headed for a Game 7 in their conference quarterfinal on Tuesday night.
Let’s take a look at what we’ve learned, and what’s ahead, as you plan your NBA betting for the week.
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The Latest in the NBA Playoffs
The Mavericks are still a Player or two away from contending
Dallas ran out to a 34-29 lead over the Clippers in the first quarter of Game 6, but we learned that Luka Doncic needs a second scoring threat — and that doesn’t include Kristaps Porzingis, who missed the last three games of this series with a torn meniscus. Porzingis can fill up the bucket from inside and outside, but at least at this point he’s too fragile to rely on. Tim Hardaway Jr. gets hot now and then, but not consistently enough. Dorian Finney-Smith is a great role player on the glass and with the clutch shot now and then, but he won’t put up 20-25 a night. Maxi Kleber can get the spot-up three now and then too, but the Mavericks’ scoring relied too much on Luka to get things done.
Don’t put too much stock in the Bucks’ loss to Orlando
Boston, Miami and Toronto all swept their Eastern Conference quarterfinal series, while the Bucks (holding the top seed) lost their series opener to the Orlando Magic before winning the next four, including a Game 5 that was postponed due to the Bucks’ decision to stop playing in the wake of the shooting of Jacob Blake and subsequent events in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
Giannis Antetokounmpo will continue to bring his best, but the supporting cast is what will help the Bucks get by the Heat. Eric Bledsoe had a hard time scoring against Orlando. He made up for it with some shutdown defense, but the Heat play defense at an entire higher level than the Magic, so Milwaukee will need his points. Khris Middleton’s offense was also inconsistent, as he only had two points in Game 2 against Orlando. The Bucks need more consistency out of him to get to the East finals.
Watch out how Milwaukee defends against the three-pointer. The Bucks played transcendent defense this year, but their weakness was shooting from downtown. The Bucks permitted more attempts from behind the arc (39.3) and more makes (14.0) per game during the regular season. Both of those numbers are the worst in the NBA. Miami shot 37.9% from behind the arc during the season and made 13.4 per game, second and sixth in the NBA, respectively. When the teams played in August 6 in the “bubble,” the Heat went 45.7% from downtown — and Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler did not play. The Heat love the deep shooting of Duncan Robinson, who nailed seven three-balls in Game 2 alone against the Pacers.
Can Toronto score enough to beat Boston?
Boston demolished Toronto in Game 1 of their East semifinal series, rolling to a 112-94 victory that saw the Celtics finish the first quarter with a 16-point lead and basically not look back from there. During the regular season, they struggled in the half-court offense, and that continued in Game 1 against Boston, as they went 10 for 40 from downtown and shot 36.9% from the floor in the halfcourt. When their shots weren’t falling, they stopped moving and stopped passing. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet combined to go 8 for 32 on the night and 2 for 14 from downtown. Without their offense, the Raptors won’t get by Boston.
