The NBA is set to restart on July 30, when the Utah Jazz and the New Orleans Pelicans will play. The Los Angeles Clippers will take on the Lakers later that night, with both games on TNT. All games will take place at the team’s “bubble” in Orlando. The Houston Rockets face a difficult road ahead, as star point guard Russell Westbrook has tested positive for COVID-19. James Harden traveled to Orlando separately from the rest of the team and will need to pass two more COVID-19 tests, 24 hours apart, before he can join the team on the practice floor. Let’s take a look at what awaits Houston in the league’s resumption as you consider your NBA betting strategy.
NBA News: Houston Rockets Analysis Before the Restart
Opening Futures Odds
- Odds to Win the NBA Championship: +1200
- Odds to Win the Western Conference: +700
- Bubble Win Total: 4 ½
Houston entered the COVID-19 shutdown with a record of 40-24, at that point the sixth-best record in the NBA. James Harden and Russell Westbrook have proven to be the powerful tandem that the team hoped for, and the team dealt away center Clint Capela, committing to a small-ball philosophy. That led to seven wins in the next nine games, but once teams seemed to figure out the Houston offense, things started to sputter, and the team dropped four of five before the NBA paused the season.
In addition to the issues surrounding Westbrook’s health and Harden’s continued quarantine, it is worth noting that head coach Mike D’Antoni is in the last year of his contract. He could end up leaving the team in just a few weeks, when the season comes to an end, which means that the team has gone all-in on the small-ball strategy.
This means that a lot of responsibility falls on the shoulders of Robert Covington. He contributes on offense with his three-point shooting, but his primary importance to the team comes on defense. Without Capela on the inside, the Rockets will need a rim protector, and it will fall to Covington, along with P.J. Tucker, to play that role despite their lack of size. Covington put up 12.8 points, 7.9 boards and 1.1 steals per game while in Houston.
Houston opens on July 31 against the Dallas Mavericks, and then they face Milwaukee on August 2 and Portland on August 4. Their other games in the seeding round come against the Lakers, the Kings, the Spurs, the Pacers and the 76ers. The problems that come with betting on the Rockets are growing.
Losing Westbrook is huge
Since July 1, 19 NBA players have tested positive for COVID-19. Obviously, his health is much more important than any role he would play for Houston in the NBA, but the Rockets’ chances just got a lot longer without Harden. Westbrook was averaging 27.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists for the 2019-20 season. That is 4.3 points per game higher than his career average. His shooting was 3.7 percent better than his career average as well.
Small-ball wasn’t paying off
Once teams figured out how to play the small-ball Rockets, Houston started losing — and not to the team’s best. Their four losses right before the COVID-19 hiatus came to the Knicks, Clippers, Hornets and Magic. They did right the ship with a six-point win over Minnesota on March 10, but it was clear that cracks were forming.
I didn’t see Houston winning an NBA title — or even coming out of the Western Conference — even before they traded Capela away. Their offense was solid, but their defense just had too many holes to win seven-game series against the likes of the Lakers or the Clippers. Even teams like the Mavericks might have represented problems for a series of that length. Westbrook and Harden are generational talents on offense, but the defensive commitment simply is not there — and now Westbrook is out. I don’t see the Rockets doing much in this seeding round — or this postseason.
