When LeBron James is complaining about the playoff format, you know that things are getting tense down the stretch in the NBA. The Los Angeles Lakers are currently in sixth in the Western Conference, even with Dallas and Portland at 36-28. Portland sits in seventh but could pass the Lakers and force them into the play-in tournament, and so now James wants whoever came up with the play-in idea to be fired…as the Lakers could find themselves bounced out after two losses in the scrum among the seventh through tenth seeds. Phoenix and Utah are now tied for the West lead. In the East, the top three (Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Milwaukee) have pulled away from New York, with the Knicks just 2 ½ games ahead of seventh-place Boston.
Let’s take a look at some NBA predictions once play gets underway.
NBA News: Playoff Predictions
Play-In Thoughts
Here are the teams ranked 4-12 in the East, with wins, losses, games remaining and games out of first.
| Place | Team | W | L | GR | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | New York | 36 | 28 | 8 | 7 |
| 5 | Atlanta | 35 | 30 | 7 | 8 ½ |
| 6 | Miami | 35 | 30 | 7 | 8 ½ |
| 7 | Boston | 34 | 31 | 7 | 9 ½ |
| 8 | Charlotte | 31 | 33 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | Indiana | 30 | 33 | 9 | 12 ½ |
| 10 | Washington | 29 | 35 | 8 | 14 |
| 11 | Toronto | 27 | 38 | 7 | 16 ½ |
| 12 | Chicago | 26 | 38 | 8 | 17 |
Teams in the 7-10 slots go into a play-in; the 7th place team hosts the 8th place team in a play-in game, and the 9th place team hosts the 10th place team. The 7-8 winner gets the 7-seed in the playoffs. The 9-10 winner plays the 7-8 loser for the 8-seed. In both cases, those are one-game play-ins (now you know why LeBron is sweating bullets).
In this group, I think this finishes largely the same, although I see Boston and Washington coming out with the 7- and 8-seeds. Washington has won 8-2, and Russell Westbrook has been on absolute tear the last three weeks. The return of Bradley Beal means that teams can’t focus all their defense efforts on Westbrook, and the team has won 8 of 10. Charlotte has dropped six of ten as they struggle without LaMelo Ball, and the Pacers are giving up 114 ½ points per game on the season and have split their last ten.
Now let’s look at the West:
| Place | Team | W | L | GR | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dallas | 36 | 28 | 8 | 10 |
| 6 | L.A. Lakers | 36 | 28 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | Portland | 36 | 28 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Memphis | 32 | 31 | 9 | 13 ½ |
| 9 | Golden State | 32 | 32 | 8 | 14 |
| 10 | San Antonio | 31 | 32 | 9 | 14 ½ |
| 11 | New Orleans | 29 | 35 | 8 | 17 |
| 12 | Sacramento | 27 | 37 | 8 | 19 |
Here’s a word about Dallas. They have lost three games to Sacramento in the last two weeks. Turn those losses into wins, and they are 39-25 and reasonably clear of the play-in. However, they have gotten off to slow starts in all three of those games, and they have refused to play defense or rebound in any of those losses. Fortunately, they’ve beaten the Lakers twice to claim that tiebreaker, but as a young team, they are a series of losses away from falling out of the play-in — or they are a few big wins away from making the conference semifinals. Luka Doncic is one more technical foul away from an automatic suspension, so this is a team that needs to decide to play consistent games if they want to do anything other than flame out in the playoffs once again. Out of this scrum, I see Portland moving up to the fifth seed, Dallas finishing sixth, and then San Antonio and Golden State coming out of the play-in, as Golden State will move up to the eight-seed, knock out the Lakers, and the Spurs will beat the Grizzlies and then the Lakers to get to the playoffs. Why? LeBron had to leave the Lakers’ last game with ankle soreness and has said he will “never” be back to full health. That doesn’t bode well for the mental prowess of the team, and AD has not had a dominant game back yet either.
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